By Rod Nordland
Rod Nordland has been reporting on Afghanistan’s travails since good earlier the American-led invasion that booted the Taliban from ability inwards 2001. For the yesteryear 8 years, he has been a correspondent together with thus Kabul bureau principal for The New York Times, which has expanded its presence inwards the reason fifty-fifty every bit many other tidings organizations receive got withdrawn. Two wars are convulsing Afghanistan, the state of war of blood together with guts, together with the state of war of truth together with lies. Both receive got been amassing casualties at a remarkable charge per unit of measurement recently. The offset is that messy state of war inwards which, simply inwards the yesteryear week, to a greater extent than than 40high schoolhouse students were blown to pieces inwards their classroom, hundreds of bodies were left abandoned for a calendar week inwards the streets of Ghazni metropolis or dumped inwards a river, together with 2 of import Afghan Army units were destroyed, almost to the final soldier.
An Afghan soldier at a banking concern check indicate on the highway betwixt Ghazni together with Kabul, the capital.CreditMohammad Ismail/Reuters
Rod Nordland has been reporting on Afghanistan’s travails since good earlier the American-led invasion that booted the Taliban from ability inwards 2001. For the yesteryear 8 years, he has been a correspondent together with thus Kabul bureau principal for The New York Times, which has expanded its presence inwards the reason fifty-fifty every bit many other tidings organizations receive got withdrawn. Two wars are convulsing Afghanistan, the state of war of blood together with guts, together with the state of war of truth together with lies. Both receive got been amassing casualties at a remarkable charge per unit of measurement recently. The offset is that messy state of war inwards which, simply inwards the yesteryear week, to a greater extent than than 40high schoolhouse students were blown to pieces inwards their classroom, hundreds of bodies were left abandoned for a calendar week inwards the streets of Ghazni metropolis or dumped inwards a river, together with 2 of import Afghan Army units were destroyed, almost to the final soldier. The other is the state of war inwards which most of that, according to official accounts, did non laissez passer on off — or at to the lowest degree was non every bit bad every bit it sounded. Not until belatedly on the 3rd twenty-four hr catamenia of the Taliban’s onslaught on Ghazni did President Ashraf Ghani’s aides fifty-fifty inform him of the desperation grade there, 2 authorities officials said privately; Mr. Ghani himself after confirmed that publicly. By thus the Taliban had command of nearly every neighborhood.
Fighting ceases inwards Afghanistan's Ghazni, but fearfulness remainsCreditVideo yesteryear AFP tidings agency
Government spokesmen, confronted with a crisis, basically responded yesteryear asserting that everything was fine. They repeatedly denied that Taliban fighters were inwards command of Ghazni. By twenty-four hr catamenia six, when the insurgents no longer were inwards control, official denials converged with the truth.
The American military’s principal spokesman, Lt. Col. Martin L. O’Donnell, insisted at that topographic point was no big employment — simply insurgents looking for “inconsequential headlines.”
Discerning fact from fiction is challenging inwards whatever war, of course. But inwards Afghanistan, where most of the population has known alone war, narratives are frequently amount contradictions of i another.
How We Reported
An Afghan soldier at a banking concern check indicate on the highway betwixt Ghazni together with Kabul, the capital.CreditMohammad Ismail/Reuters We had a reporter within Ghazni, canvassing neighborhoods. Although the country’s mobile telephone networks failed inwards Ghazni, making it hard to banking concern check the official narrative, nosotros likewise institute people who could larn a jail στοιχείο signal on the outskirts or upper floors of Ghazni buildings, or who fled together with brought their stories to us.
One of our reporters, Fahim Abed, got through on the telephone to the managing director of Ghazni Hospital, Baz Mohammad Hemat, who spoke from a infirmary flooring awash inwards blood, bodies stacked inwards storerooms because the morgue was full. MD Hemat counted 113 dead on twenty-four hr catamenia two, together with to a greater extent than arriving hourly. Most were inwards uniform, belying official claims of minimal casualties.
In Ajristan District, our Afghan reporters heard that disaster had befallen an elite Army commando unit of measurement defending that remote area. As our reporter Jawad Sukhanyar called roughly to officials inwards the surrounding areas, he institute that the Ministry of Defense was doing the same thing; they didn’t know what had happened either.
It turned out that insurgent suicide bombers destroyed the commando company’s base, together with every bit the defenders fled, Taliban fighters picked them off. Out of a base of operations forcefulness of to a greater extent than than 100 commandos, constabulary together with militia fighters, alone 22 survived, fleeing into the desert with no H2O or food.
Jawad reached a surviving commando, Sgt. Eid Mohammad, 30, on the phone. He described how they had drunkard i another’s urine spell fleeing pro-Taliban Kuchi nomads.
The sergeant likewise repeated a version of something widely heard inwards the 25 of Afghanistan’s 34 provinces actively at state of war now: “No i from the authorities gave us anything. All nosotros got was promises, no action.”
That was truthful 300 miles due north of Ghazni, at a house called Chinese Camp, where an Afghan Army companionship struggled through 3 days of heavy Taliban attacks, begging for resupply together with reinforcements, together with peculiarly air support, which were promised, but never arrived.
Our reporter Najim Rahim had been on the telephone every twenty-four hr catamenia for a calendar week with the defenders, including their captain, who had larn Najim’s friend. On Lord's Day person else answered the captain’s phone. “I started crying when I heard he was killed,” Najim said.
By Tuesday the defenders at Chinese Camp were almost out of ammunition, they told Najim. Half were dead or wounded together with the residuum surrendered except for a lieutenant who escaped. Najim managed to rail him down, thus nosotros knew what had happened.
Afghan officials at the Ministry of Defense said they could non provide an occupation concern human relationship of Chinese Camp casualties. “We’re working on figuring out how many soldiers were at that topographic point together with when nosotros do, we’ll part it,” said Ghafoor Ahmad Jawed, a ministry building spokesman.
Lots to a greater extent than happened this yesteryear week, to a greater extent than than nosotros could embrace except briefly. On Monday, Taliban fighters overran an Afghan edge constabulary unit of measurement defending the frontier with Tajikistan inwards northern Takhar Province, killing 12. An Afghan National Army unit of measurement was destroyed inwards northern Baghlan Province, where officials admitted that 39 soldiers were killed, 2 wounded together with 2 escaped.
Who is winning?
Members of the 215th Corps of the Afghan National Army at Camp Bastion inwards Helmand Province inwards 2016.CreditAdam Ferguson for The New York Times This is frequently the offset enquiry arriving diplomats ask. Every twelvemonth there’s a novel grouping of them — most countries create non allow them to remain to a greater extent than than a year, sometimes two. They are commonly good briefed inwards the official narrative that things are improving. But many pass their entire tours within a fortified embassy.
On paper, the Afghan authorities together with its 40-plus international coalition allies, predominantly Americans, receive got all the advantages over the insurgents. The Afghan military machine together with constabulary receive got an authorized strength of 350,000, their payroll funded yesteryear international partners. The American military machine forthwith seat out 14,000, a mix of trainers, advisers together with Special Operations members.
The Afghans likewise receive got their ain minor air force, together with extensive back upwards from American drones, jet bombers together with helicopter gunships.
The Taliban receive got been estimated yesteryear American military machine officials to seat out 20,000 to 40,000 active fighters, an gauge that has non changed much for years fifty-fifty though the Afghan authorities claims it has been killing nearly a yard a month.
The truthful size of the Afghan military machine is hard to assess. The Special Inspector General for Afghan Reconstruction, an American authorities watchdog agency, reported inwards July that the Afghan National Army was at 86 per centum of its authorized strength, together with that all safety forces, police, regular army together with specialized units totaled 310,000. The way likewise said the attrition charge per unit of measurement for the Afghan National Army was running at 2 per centum a month. If confirmed, that would interpret into roughly a quarter of the amount per year.
Full information on attrition, which includes desertions, failure to re-enlist together with casualties, was forthwith secret, the way said, a conclusion taken yesteryear the American military, which the way criticized.
Also classified every bit secret since final year has been the truthful casualty terms for the Afghan military. When those figures were final released yesteryear Afghan authorities officials, inwards 2016, to a greater extent than than 6,000 soldiers together with constabulary officers were beingness killed annually. The outgoing American military machine commander at the terminate of 2014, Lt. Gen. Joseph Anderson, called the Afghan authorities losses, thus virtually 5,000 fatalities a year, “unsustainable.”
Many Afghan officials together with military machine officers tell privately that the losses receive got worsened since then. “Casualties alongside Afghan forces are higher than they receive got always been,” said the retired full general Atiqullah Amarkhel, a military machine analyst inwards Kabul.
If the decease terms of the yesteryear calendar week — to a greater extent than than 400 Afghan soldiers together with constabulary officers — were to move along for a year, the annual amount would live triple the worst known twelvemonth thus far.
The Afghan military machine together with its American allies receive got officially shifted their strategy to i that emphasizes protecting population centers — places similar Ghazni metropolis — rather than belongings onto territory — places similar Ghormach together with Ajristan Districts, where those regular army units were overwhelmed final week. The military machine has been dull to brand that shift, however.
The Taliban vowed this twelvemonth to retake cities together with provinces, but thus far they receive got taken no provinces together with 3 cities, but alone briefly. And most of Afghanistan’s population lives nether government, non Taliban, control.
Even yesteryear territorial standards, according to the American military’s reckoning, the Afghan safety forces receive got been doing good lately. When the international coalition reduced its 140,000-soldier presence, handing safety responsibleness to Afghan forces, the insurgents apace expanded their command throughout the country. But inwards the yesteryear year, the military machine said, that expansion has been halted.
As of July 30, the authorities controlled 58.5 per centum of the country, the insurgents 19.4 percent, with the remaining 22 per centum contested, according to the American military.
Other information raises serious questions virtually the accuracy of that data. In Ghazni Province, for example, alone i of its nineteen districts was listed yesteryear the American military machine every bit nether insurgent control. But local officials said final calendar week that alone 3 Ghazni districts were clearly government-controlled.
In northern Kunduz Province, together with inwards southern Helmand, Uruzgan together with Zabul Provinces, most districts are listed every bit nether authorities command or contested. But inwards none of them would it live condom for a authorities official to exit the provincial working capital missive of the alphabet without a heavily armed escort.
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