By Seth G. Jones
We must confront facts,” remarked Senator John McCain inwards August 2017, “we are losing inwards Afghanistan in addition to fourth dimension is of the essence if nosotros recall to plow the tide.” He is non the only i who has argued that the Taliban are on the march. “The Taliban are getting stronger, the regime is on the retreat, they are losing the world to the Taliban twenty-four threescore minutes menstruum past times day,” Abdul Jabbar Qahraman, a retired Afghan full general who was the Afghan government’s military machine envoy to Helmand Province until 2016, told the New York Times over the summer. Media outlets take away hold likewise proclaimed that “The Taliban exercise await a lot similar they are winning” in addition to that this is “The state of war America can’t win.”
Although the Taliban has demonstrated a surprising mightiness to hold upward in addition to comport high-profile attacks inwards cities similar Kabul, it is weaker today than almost recognize. It is hamstrung past times an ideology that is also extreme for almost Afghans, a leadership construction that is also closely linked to the Pashtun ethnic group, an over-reliance on fell tactics that take away hold killed tens of thousands of innocent Afghan civilians in addition to alienated many more, a widespread interest inwards corruption, in addition to a dependence on unpopular unusual allies such equally Pakistan. Most senior Taliban leaders nevertheless promise that they volition i twenty-four threescore minutes menstruum live able to re-take Kabul, overthrow the Afghan government, in addition to found an extreme Islamic emirate inwards the country. But given the group’s weaknesses in addition to the United States’ determination to keep troops inwards Afghanistan, that is unlikely.
In fact, the weaknesses of both the Taliban in addition to the electrical flow Afghan regime advise that a stalemate is the almost probable lawsuit for the foreseeable future. Territory may alter hands, although in all probability non plenty to tip the residuum inwards favor of either side. As such, the Taliban’s best selection right away is to pursue a negotiated settlement, since it is unlikely to defeat the Afghan regime in addition to its international backers on the battlefield. For their parts, Kabul in addition to Washington should likewise support a settlement because they volition non probable live able to secure an outright military machine victory, either.
THE “NEW” TALIBAN
The Taliban is a different organisation today than it was inwards the 1990s, when it ruled Afghanistan. It is run past times Haibatullah Akhunzada, a old principal jurist in addition to caput of the Taliban Ulema Council, the group’s highest religious authority. Akhunzada in addition to other Taliban leaders take away hold attempted to win Afghan hearts in addition to minds past times funding some evolution projects in addition to promising to reform the instruction system. Today’s Taliban leaders are also to a greater extent than technically savvy than those of the 1990s; they proudly advertise their websites, Twitter feeds, in addition to glossy magazines—although they oftentimes crevice downwards on civilians using some of the same technology.
The Taliban has resiliently held on to rural terrain in addition to has managed to comport repeated high-profile attacks inwards Kabul in addition to other cities. Its leaders take away hold created an organizational construction inwards which the meridian echelons render strategic guidance in addition to oversight piece military machine in addition to political officials inwards the champaign brand operational in addition to tactical decisions. The Taliban has also managed to retain some organizational cohesion, despite the loss of ii leaders inwards the past times few years—a pregnant blow for whatever organization.
Yet the Taliban has faced serious setbacks. After temporarily seizing the northern urban heart of Kunduz inwards September 2015, the grouping lost command of it inside days equally U.S. in addition to Afghan forces rallied to take away hold it back. In 2016 the Taliban position pressure level on several provincial capitals, at times simultaneously, but could non overrun whatever of them. In 2017 it failed to mountain a sustained threat against whatever provincial capital.
WHY THE TALIBAN FAILS
The Taliban’s failures betoken to several deficiencies.
First, its ideology is nevertheless also extreme for many Afghans—including urban Afghans—who adhere to a much less conservative shape of Islam that permits almost modern technology, music, political participation, in addition to some rights for women. For example, nearly all Afghans tell they approve of women voting, piece girls, barred from instruction nether the Taliban, right away trouble organisation human relationship for 39 per centum of populace schoolhouse students inwards Afghanistan. The Afghan Parliament has fix aside 69 of the 249 seats inwards its lower trouble solid for women, piece the upper trouble solid includes 27 woman mortal members of parliament out of its 102 members.
It is non alone surprising, then, that a nationwide poll inwards 2015 found that 92 per centum of Afghans supported the Kabul regime in addition to only 4 per centum favored the Taliban, a conclusion that has been consistent over roughly a decade of polling. In the same poll, almost Afghans also rejected the notion that the Taliban had move to a greater extent than moderate.
The 2nd deficiency is that the Taliban is largely a Pashtun movement, which limits its back upward inwards Hazara, Tajik, in addition to Uzbek areas. The Taliban’s meridian layers are dominated past times Pashtuns, although at that spot is a flake to a greater extent than ethnic diverseness at its lower levels. Haibatullah Akhunzada is a Pashtun from the Noorzai tribe inwards southern Afghanistan. His deputies, Sirajuddin Haqqani in addition to Mohammad Yaqub, are both Pashtuns. Other senior leaders—such equally Abdul Qayyum Zakir, Ahmadullah Nanai, Abdul Latif Mansur, in addition to Noor Mohammad Saqib—are Pashtuns. Overall, roughly eighty per centum of the Taliban’s meridian 50 leaders are Pashtuns from Kandahar Province. Based on Afghanistan’s recent history of grievances betwixt the Pashtun Taliban in addition to the Hazara, Tajik, in addition to Uzbek communities, the Taliban’s over-reliance on Pashtun leaders is a serious weakness.Roughly 93 per centum of Afghans tell they are fearful of encountering the Taliban because of its extremist views in addition to brutality.
Third, the Taliban has favored fell tactics to exert control, which has undermined its back upward inwards Afghanistan. Like many insurgent groups, Taliban fighters take away hold aggressively targeted civilians in addition to regime personnel with everything from assassinations in addition to roadside bombs to ambushes in addition to raids. Taliban strikes inwards the commencement one-half of 2017 killed to a greater extent than civilians than inwards whatever other six-month menstruum since the UN began documenting civilian casualties. Suicide attacks take away hold been especially devastating, killing thousands of Afghan civilians over the past times decade in addition to maiming tens of thousands of others.
According to an Asia Foundation poll, roughly 93 per centum of Afghans tell they are fearful of encountering the Taliban because of its extremist views in addition to brutality. But inwards improver to populace distaste, brutality has also led to the displacement of families, civilian belongings damage, express liberty of movement, in addition to has reduced access to humanitarian aid, education, in addition to healthcare—all of which take away hold probable lessened the group’s appeal.
Fourth, although many observers betoken to corruption inwards the Afghan government, fewer empathize that the Taliban is implicated too, especially inwards the drug trade. Drug revenue accounts for over one-half of the Taliban’s full financing in addition to is the unmarried almost of import rootage of revenue for local commanders. Local Taliban commanders fund their networks past times taxing the trade, including farmers. The Taliban i time exported drugs from Transitional Islamic State of Afghanistan inwards the shape of opium syrup, but the grouping is increasingly edifice labs inwards the province that procedure opium into morphine or heroin. These actions take away hold helped ensure that Transitional Islamic State of Afghanistan remains the world’s largest opium producer in addition to exporter, producing an estimated eighty per centum of the world’s opium. Taliban drug coin is used to pay everyone from human foot soldiers to Afghan regime officials, in addition to the Taliban’s interest inwards virtually all aspects of the opium merchandise suggests that it is akin to a drug cartel.
The 5th deficiency is that the Taliban relies heavily on back upward from neighboring countries—particularly Pakistan—that are unpopular alongside many Afghans. Islamic Republic of Pakistan in addition to its Directorate of Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), the country’s premier spy agency, render several types of assistance to the Taliban in addition to allied groups such equally the Haqqani Network. One is sanctuary for leaders in addition to their families. Pakistani officials take away hold also provided the Taliban with money, training, intelligence, lethal material, in addition to non-lethal fabric such equally communications equipment. Yet only 3.7 per centum of Afghans gave a favorable rating to Pakistan, according to a 2016 see poll conducted past times Gallup in addition to the Broadcasting Board of Governors. At 5.8 percent, to a greater extent than Afghans gave a favorable rating to the Islamic State (ISIS), in addition to many to a greater extent than had a positive see of India, at nearly 62 percent.
OMAR SOBHANI / REUTERSA Shiite funeral procession close Kabul, Dec 2017.
PEACE TALKS
Although Western policymakers in addition to academics take away hold harped on the Afghan government’s weaknesses in addition to warned of imminent Taliban victory, the Taliban’s futurity does non await promising. The grouping has the mightiness to proceed waging an insurgency for the foreseeable future. But its odds of overthrowing the Afghan government—or fifty-fifty holding urban terrain—are long.
Faced with such express prospects, Taliban leaders should start serious peace negotiations with the Afghan government, something they take away hold been reluctant to do, maybe because they believed they had the upper paw on the battlefield. Pushing the Taliban to start serious village talks—in particular, sitting downwards with Afghan regime representatives—will probable involve sustained efforts past times the U.S.A. in addition to regional partners, especially Pakistan.
Since the Taliban controls some rural terrain, its leaders could probable negotiate a position out of concessions from the Afghan regime in addition to its allies. Examples include a bigger move for Islam—and Islamic law—in Afghan institutions, the integration of some Taliban officials inwards regime posts, a crackdown on regime corruption, in addition to fifty-fifty the eventual withdrawal of U.S. in addition to other unusual combat forces. It is also worth pointing out to the group’s leaders that postponing negotiations is unlikely to better their negotiating position. The Trump administration’s proclamation that it would jettison the Obama administration’s deadlines for the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Transitional Islamic State of Afghanistan leaves the Taliban facing a reinvigorated foe.
In Colombia, the FARC finally agreed to serious peace negotiations later over 200,000 people had died, millions had been displaced, in addition to thousands of civilians had been maimed past times soil mines. As FARC leader Timoleon Jimenez, known equally “Timochenko,” acknowledged inwards 2012: “The continuation of the conflict volition involve to a greater extent than decease in addition to destruction, to a greater extent than grief in addition to tears, to a greater extent than poverty in addition to misery for some in addition to greater wealth for others. Imagine the lives that could take away hold been saved these in conclusion x years. So nosotros seek dialogue, a solution without shedding blood, through political understanding.”
Timochenko had also realized that the FARC couldn’t win. It is high fourth dimension for Taliban leaders to brand it at a similar conclusion. The Afghan population, which has suffered from nearly forty years of conflict, deserves an terminate to the war.
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