Dr. Antonio Giustozzi
The recent offering yesteryear President Ghani to the Taliban to start reconciliation talks has received no positive response despite containing a few novel elements: some hope of the Taliban taking constituent inwards a hereafter review of the Afghan Constitution, a Taliban political purpose inwards Kabul, amongst members existence issued Afghan passports, together with a ceasefire. The offering was widely reported inwards the media, but the Taliban essentially ignored it. The speculation flourished inwards the media every bit to why the Taliban did non accept the offer, or at to the lowest degree engage amongst it.
A mutual explanation position frontwards to explicate why the Taliban have got thus far shown picayune involvement inwards engaging inwards reconciliation talks amongst Kabul is because they experience that they are gaining a armed forces border together with that either they volition win the war, or strengthen their negotiating seat inwards the hereafter (so why hurry?). However, this is non necessarily true. What nosotros take away heed from Taliban contacts is that -- despite the gradual erosion of regime influence together with command inwards the rural areas -- the Taliban ‘elite’ is non happy close the agency the state of war is going. The leadership council together with the top armed forces leaders had laid for themselves ambitious aims (although they never announced them inwards public): such every bit taking together with belongings whole provinces, including the provincial capitals. These aims were laid inwards 2014-15, when the Americans seemed to live on bailing out of combat operations inwards Afghanistan. At that point, the Taliban had a serious take away chances of making a breakthrough, but despite coming merely about it, they were never able to grip a say (Kunduz) inwards its virtual entirety for to a greater extent than than 2 weeks. From 2016 onwards the Americans gradually tip-toed into combat operations again, making it harder for the Taliban to completely seize cities, together with fifty-fifty harder belongings on to them. This failure is a origin of much recrimination inside the Taliban.
There are 2 other reasons why the Taliban leadership does non necessarily intend fourth dimension is playing inwards its favour. One is that the Taliban’s Amir, Haibatullah Akhund, is inwards a weak seat at the top of the arrangement together with risks losing external together with internal back upward if he does non start delivering more.
The other is that the cohesiveness of the Taliban, never really high, is getting much worse. The reintegration of the Haqqani network into the Quetta Shura’s chain of command inwards 2015 has entirely temporarily made things better; directly Serajuddin Haqqani together with Haibatullah are according to sources inwards really bad price amongst each other. The reintegration of the Peshawar Shura into Quetta’s chain of command was some other short-lived success: the Peshawar Shura has de facto disintegrated together with the Taliban inwards eastern Transitional Islamic State of Afghanistan are at their weakest for years. Now fifty-fifty the leader of the Shura of the North, Qari Baryal, has broken relations amongst Haibatullah. In Quetta together with inwards southern Afghanistan, Serajuddin Haqqani has directly unprecedented influence, that he uses for contrasting Haibatullah; the Ishaqzai Taliban are non nevertheless reconciled amongst Haibatullah together with exercise non cooperate amongst him. Haibatullah’s entirely recent success has been the recent reconciliation amongst Abdul Qayum Zakir inwards an examine to pacify the Alizai tribe, to which Zakir belongs, together with appointed him caput of the logistics committee a few days ago.
But then, if the Taliban are non thus for sure of the brilliant path ahead, why are they non negotiating amongst Kabul?
First of all, the international relations together with funding of the Taliban, which are mostly poorly understood, correspond a major obstacle. Despite a growing literature on the back upward that over the years has been accruing to them from Pakistan, Islamic Republic of Iran together with the Arab Gulf, somehow commentators, observers together with policy makers appear to assume that such back upward comes without strings attached, that constrain the liberty of manoeuvre of the Taliban leadership.
Second, every bit mentioned already, the Taliban are non a unified entity together with at that topographic point are multiple centres of ability inside it. In social club for the official leadership of the Taliban to accept a seat on such a controversial theme it needs to consult all the dissimilar centres of ability that to diverse marking recognise it every bit ‘the leadership’. Clearly, some of these centres of ability fiercely oppose whatever thought of reconciliation: nosotros tin merely refer the Haqqani network every bit the principal example. The Haqqani direct command 15% of the Taliban’s manpower, together with have got influence of many other smaller Taliban fronts, which they back upward inwards diverse ways.
Third, when seen through Taliban eyes, President Ghani’s offers powerfulness non appear thus attractive. The review of the Constitution powerfulness good boil downwards to a small-scale Taliban delegation joining the hereafter Constitutional Loya Jirga. The Taliban for for sure would similar a review procedure inwards which they represented one-half or thus of the ‘experts’ reviewing the Constitution. H5N1 ceasefire would exercise goodness Kabul mainly, every bit the Afghan safety forces have got long lost the first inwards the conflict. The Taliban powerfulness concur to it at some point, but, every bit it stands, they are non going to thought it every bit a concession from Kabul, but rather every bit a concession they powerfulness brand to Kabul if everything else is satisfying for them.
Finally, an purpose inwards Kabul compares poorly amongst the purpose the Taliban have got inwards Doha together with that Ghani seeks to closed down. Although Haibatullah is non himself an extremist, at that topographic point are plenty hardliners inside the Taliban to hateful that whatever rushed conclusion to sit down at a tabular array amongst Kabul together with negotiate would badly divide the Taliban. It powerfulness good deprive them of much of their funding every bit well. It is non clear what Haibatullah would instruct for that: the cease nation of the talks is foggy together with the really fact that President Ghani’s offering was made inwards populace likely arouses suspicions inwards Quetta together with Karachi, where most Taliban offices are. After all, Haibatullah’s predecessor Akhtar Mohammad Mansur tried to negotiate, together with divide the Taliban for picayune concrete gain. The vantage for his efforts to negotiate was a USA drone smasher that killed him.Haibatullah needs to consolidate his leadership seat earlier he tin fifty-fifty intend of talks amongst Kabul, together with to exercise that he needs to score meliorate on the battlefield. The fighting flavour started early on this year, amongst the stimulate for Farah province, where Haibatullah is trying to earn his starting fourth dimension non bad armed forces success.
Buat lebih berguna, kongsi:
