by Mike Allen
For the past times month, Axios has been interviewing people who withdraw hold been trusted alongside the nation’s most sensitive secrets. The grouping includes 7 sometime directors or deputy directors of the CIA, 2 sometime U.S. intelligence chiefs, a sometime Secretary of Homeland Security, 2 White House homeland safety advisers, too a sometime Director of the National Counterterrorism Center. We wanted to know, inward this fourth dimension of shrewd geopolitical stress, which global threat worried them most, too which threats they thought weren’t getting the attending they deserved. The projection was led past times David Lawler, Jonathan Swan too Evan Ryan. Given your overwhelming reply to our Deep Dives, they’ll shortly interruption into special editions, hence you’ll also larn a regular Sabbatum edition of Axios AM. Illustration: Rebecca Zisser/Axios
When nosotros asked America’s first off intelligence experts what keeps them upwards at night, 1 reply came upwards over too over again: the opportunity of a crippling cyberattack.
A well-executed cyberattack could knock out the electrical grid too unopen off powerfulness to a huge swath of the country, or compromise vital regime or fiscal information too exit us unsure what is real.
The sheer number of internet-connected devices, from cars to pacemakers, agency the risks are growing past times the day.
The large picture: Homeland Security Secretary Kirstjen Nielsen said this calendar week that the U.S. is inward “crisis mode,” comparison the danger of a massive assault to a Category v hurricane looming on the horizon. Intelligence chiefs from the concluding iii administrations agree, too told Axios at that topographic point is no graver threat to the United States.
Gen. David Petraeus, sometime CIA director: “What worries me most is a cyber equivalent of a weapon of volume devastation falling into the hands of extremists who would, needless to say, hold out real hard to deter, given their willingness to blow themselves upwards on the battlefield to bring us alongside them.”
Former CIA Director Leon Panetta says the biggest threat is “a cyberattack that could paralyze the nation,” piece sometime Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff says “cyberattacks on critical infrastructure from province or state-sponsored actors are the biggest threat correct now.”
Russia, China, Islamic Republic of Iran too Democratic People's South Korea are the transcend U.S. adversaries inward the cyber realm, but the threat extends to non-state actors too criminal groups.
“The steady drumbeat of breaches inward the headlines — each to a greater extent than fantastic than the adjacent — may withdraw hold numbed people, but everyone should tending almost the cyber threat,” explains Lisa Monaco, homeland safety adviser to Barack Obama. “First, nosotros are all vulnerable. Second, it won’t bring a cyber 9/11 to brand this real real.”
“There volition hold out tremendous media coverage too assigning of blame later at that topographic point is a catastrophic assault on U.S. critical infrastructure that results inward the loss of American lives,” says Frances Townsend, homeland safety adviser to George W. Bush, “but nosotros demand to pass to a greater extent than fourth dimension instantly roofing what is at stake too the magnitude of the growing risk.”
“Companies inward the energy, financial, too other fundamental economical sectors demand to develop the capacity to portion threat information inward existent time, too give the regime the visibility too information to bring activity when necessary to defend us,” says Matt Olsen, sometime managing director of the National Counterterrorism Center.
The bottom line: The fact that hence many intelligenceexperts withdraw hold reached the same conclusion — too experience hence strongly almost it — shows how much the dangers to the the States withdraw hold changed since 9/11.
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2. United States, divided: The threat at home
“We are, to lay it simply, the most destabilizing strength inward the world today,” sometime CIA managing director Michael Hayden says, describing the “erratic too unpredictable policy of the United States” every bit the greatest opportunity to global security.
Between the lines: Hayden isn’t alone. Several intelligence experts cited threats coming from inside the the States every bit amid the most unsafe nosotros face.
Michael Morell, sometime acting CIA director:”What has worried me for some time, fifty-fifty earlier the 2016 election, is the inability of our political leadership to resolve their differences too to come upwards together too compromise inward making decisions that advance our economic scheme too society. Why is this my biggest worry? Because, at the destination of the day, the most of import determinant of a nation’s national safety is the wellness of its economic scheme too its society. Period. End of story.”
Avril Haines, sometime deputy CIA director, points to inequality inward the U.S. every bit a long-term national safety threat, too 1 that volition hold out accelerated past times emerging technologies:”As the bulk of the population inward countries similar the the States meet that their children are unlikely to hold out ameliorate off than they were, at that topographic point is a sense of frustration — exacerbated past times the fact that the economic scheme appears to hold out doing well, even hence the benefits of that growth are going to the super rich. Meanwhile, authoritarian governments similar Red People's Republic of China seem to hold out making pregnant reforms that number inward greater access to resources for their citizens. This creates, amid other things, a perception that democracies are unable to deliver for their citizens.”
Go deeper: The threat from America.
3. Pakistan: The threat of a nuclear-armed terrorist state
“Pakistan is the most unsafe province inward the world — non this year, non adjacent year, but sure enough downwardly the road,” says Michael Morell, sometime acting CIA director.
Pakistan has the world’s fifth largest population, fifth largest armed forces too sixth largest nuclear arsenal. The danger begins, Morell says, alongside a dysfunctional economic scheme too a speedily growing population of immature people without pedagogy or task prospects. Add to that a armed forces that continues to telephone recall the shots every bit though state of war could interruption out at whatever moment.
“The main argue the armed forces has a traveling pocket on decision-making is because of a long-held too instantly false belief inward Islamic Republic of Pakistan that Republic of Republic of India is an existential threat to Islamic Republic of Pakistan too that Islamabad must practice everything it tin bathroom to protect itself from that threat,” he says.
“One of the areas inward which this plays out is inward Pakistan’s back upwards to jihadists — inward short, its back upwards to terrorists fighting India. That back upwards bleeds over to extremists who wishing to overthrow the Pakistani province itself, including al-Qaeda too the Pakistani Taliban.”
The bottom line: “This anti-state jihadist extremism is growing inward Pakistan, creating the nightmare lodge downwardly the route — an extremist regime inward Islamabad alongside nuclear weapons.”
Bonus: How Islamic Republic of Pakistan became a global threat
Watch this Axios video, made peculiarly for this global threats Deep Dive, for a await at how Islamic Republic of Pakistan became “the most unsafe province inward the world,” too where it mightiness hold out heading.
4. China: Greatest rival, growing threat
Illustration: Rebecca Zisser/Axios
Several countries withdraw hold the armed forces too cyber tools to impairment America. Some may fifty-fifty withdraw hold the volition to utilisation them. But every bit sometime acting CIA managing director John McLaughlin puts it, “China is the 1 province that is clearly challenging the the States for global supremacy.”
“Its challenge ranges across a broad land of powerfulness dynamics — from cyber to economics, to scientific discipline too the military,” he says. “It is fielding too implementing large transformational programs such at the ‘One Belt, One Road’ inaugural that in 1 trial evolved from U.S. leadership … creating the fearfulness that fifty-fifty unopen U.S. friends — all of whom withdraw hold deep merchandise relationships alongside Beijing — volition hold out pulled irresistibly into China’s orbit.”
It’s non precisely a contest for merchandise too influence. Red People's Republic of China is developing armed forces capabilities “that are specifically designed to deter too defeat the the States inward a really global competition, too it’s pursuing victory on all fronts,” says Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.), who has been floated every bit a time to come CIA director.
“China is deploying anti-ship missiles on man-made islands inward the South Red People's Republic of China Sea, meddling inward U.S. negotiations alongside North Korea, propping upwards the Iranian regime, too taking an always to a greater extent than menacing opinion against Taiwan non because it’s encircled, but because it’s emboldened, too nosotros should bring notice,” he says.
The bottom line: “China is the most formidable competitor nosotros withdraw hold faced inward our history,” Morell says, “And we, the U.S., withdraw hold non figured out a strategic approach to dealing alongside it.”
Go deeper: Axios Deep Dive on China’s ambitions.
5. Climate change: Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 rising threat
Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios
James Clapper, managing director of national intelligence nether President Obama, cites “the arrive at of issues that arise from climate change” every bit a national safety threat non receiving sufficient attention:
“Half of the world’s population volition facial expression upwards H2O shortages past times 2035, according to the U.N. More than xxx countries — one-half of which are inward the Mideast — volition experience extreme H2O stress past times 2035.”
“More than a tertiary of the earth’s soil, which produces 95% of the world’s nutrient supply, is already degraded, too that degradation volition accelerate over the adjacent xx years, every bit the world’s population increases. Soil degradation is already occurring at rates every bit much every bit xl times faster than novel soil formation.”
“Sea storey rises are accelerating, because of H2O ice melt inward the polar regions. At the electrical current rate, the world’s seas volition hold out at to the lowest degree 2 feet higher past times the destination of the century. This has profound implications for the increasing tendency toward population concentrations inward megalopolises, which are concentrated inward coastal regions.”
The bottom line: “Climate alter (like it or not, bring it or not) is going to withdraw hold huge implications for global security. And nosotros don’t focus plenty on it.”
Go deeper: Axios’ Deep Dive on climate change.
6. Pandemics: Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 fast-spreading threat
Illustration: Rebecca Zisser/Axios
Not all safety threats are born from bad intentions. U.S. too global leaders aren’t paying nearly plenty attending to the threat from infectious disease, contends Lisa Monaco, homeland safety adviser to President Obama:
“As Homeland Security too Counterterrorism Advisor, I worried almost bad actors doing something awful alongside a bomb, a slice of malware or a pathogen. But inward the example of pandemics, the to a greater extent than probable scenario is non a bad guy alongside a bug, but a naturally occurring infectious illness similar nosotros saw alongside Ebola inward 2014, or worse yet, a novel strain of flu.”
“Amazingly, inward 2018 — the 100th anniversary of the Castilian influenza that wiped out 50-100 1000000 people worldwide — the World Economic Forum left this threat off its listing of transcend v global risks too our ain intelligence community left it off its latest Worldwide Threat Assessment.”
“Even though it’s cheaper too easier to incorporate illness at its rootage rather than waiting for it to hop a ride on 1 of the millions of worldwide airline flights, the post-Ebola investments made to hold out sure nosotros weren’t caught flat-footed for the adjacent world wellness crisis withdraw hold been slashed.”
Why it matters: “With rising populations, growing mega-cities, too rapid global move that saw to a greater extent than than 1 billion international tourist arrivals inward 2015 lonely — a novel strain of deadly influenza volition brand 1918 await similar a walk inward the park.”
7. Russia: An old threat, made new
James Clapper, managing director of national intelligence nether President Obama, says Russian Federation is “the most pressing near-term threat to the U.S., for 2 reasons: its aggressive information operations stimulate to undermine our basic system, too the modernization of its strategic nuclear arsenal.” Clapper told Axios inward a recent interview that Russian Federation is “bent on undermining our scheme whatever way they can,” too volition hold out every bit long every bit Vladimir Putin remains inward power.
Sen. Tom Cotton cites Russia’s “flagrant violations of its treaty commitments,” including on nuclear weapons, every bit an number that has flown nether the radar despite “months of coverage of Russia’s meddling inward the 2016 election.”
Michael Dempsey, the acting managing director of national intelligence inward the starting fourth dimension months of 2017, says Russia’s election meddling too illegal annexation of Crimea betoken to a deeper threat:
“The erosion of existing international norms, too the international community’s inability to found novel norms inward such areas every bit cyber warfare, artificial intelligence, synthetic biological scientific discipline too autonomous weapons development.”
“My main employment is that inward the absence of agreed-upon norms inward each of these areas, too without a vibrant Western alliance to rely on, the world could stumble into a crisis that it doesn’t empathise too is incapable of managing.”
Go deeper: Cold War 2.0.
8. Terrorism: An urgent, shifting threat
The opportunity of “the adjacent 9/11” has been sufficiently reduced, but since 2001 it has larn cheaper, faster too easier to send out the types of attacks that proceed to plague cities to a greater extent than or less the world.
David Cohen, sometime deputy CIA director, says the focus of terrorist groups is instantly “inspiring too radicalizing local actors to bear smaller-scale attacks too providing them alongside web-based grooming too techniques to practice so.”
Three concerns: Radicalized ISIS fighters returning home, the recruitment value of “the perception that America is instantly at state of war alongside Islam,” too “the ascent of unregulated cryptocurrencies” that larn inward harder to block funding to terrorist groups.
“A sustained endeavour to weaken these organizations’ powerfulness to programme too bear attacks against the ‘far enemy’ has largely succeeded,” Cohen says, but the wishing to send out a “spectacular, large-scale attack” remains.
9. North Korea: Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 threat inward hibernation
One twelvemonth later President Trump’s threats of “fire too fury,” none of the experts nosotros consulted cited Democratic People's South Korea every bit the transcend threat to national security. But piece the imminent prospect of a missile telephone substitution has subsided, things may non rest serenity for long.
Bruce Klingner, the CIA’s sometime deputy sectionalisation primary for Korea, says the best estimates are that Democratic People's South Korea has xxx or to a greater extent than nuclear weapons too hundreds of missiles, addition biological too chemic weapons.
North Korea was “a handful of months away” from beingness able to strike the U.S. alongside a nuclear weapon, according to an assessment from then-CIA Director Mike Pompeo. That was inward January.
Klingner sees 2 paths dorsum to burn too fury, too the fearfulness of war: 1. Democratic People's South Korea could exam a missile, or abandon negotiations. 2. Trump could react angrily if months popular off past times alongside petty progress, feeling he’s been “betrayed” past times Kim Jong-un.
The bottom line: “The capabilities withdraw hold non changed, too nosotros don’t know if the intentions have,” Klingner says.
10. Artificial intelligence: The threat of the future
Multiple experts cited artificial intelligence every bit a strength multiplier amplifying existing threats. Axios Future Editor Steve LeVine explains how AI creates a danger all its own:
For the U.S. too China, AI is the equivalent of the Cold War arms race. The safety too political apparatus inward both countries sentiment dominating the AI time to come every bit both an economical too armed forces imperative.
The argue is the nature of AI — a general-purpose applied scientific discipline that volition spawn today-unknown industries too weapons classes.
Once a province possesses a machine alongside human intelligence, it could withdraw hold the capability to hold all rivals at bay inward perpetuity.
But only Red People's Republic of China has made this a national strategic goal too lay enormous sums behind getting there. The U.S. has even hence to bring this step, instead relying on soul industry, inward detail Silicon Valley giants similar Google too Microsoft, to send the country’s interests.
Thank you lot for joining us for this eye-opening tour of the world, from some of the best guides on the planet.Axios · past times Mike Allen
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