By Mark B. Schneider
Russia maintains the largest forcefulness of ground-launched non-strategic or tactical nuclear weapons inwards the world. Even to a greater extent than striking is the fact that essentially 100% of these weapons violate Russian arms command commitments. According to the 2018 Nuclear Posture Review (NPR), “Russia continues to violate a series of arms command treaties too commitments, the most pregnant beingness the INF Treaty. In a broader context, Russian Federation is either rejecting or avoiding its obligations too commitments nether numerous agreements, including…the Presidential Nuclear Initiatives.”[1] The 1988 INF Treaty prohibits ground-launched cruise too ballistic missiles with ranges betwixt 500 too 5,500-km too Russian commitments nether the 1991-1992 Presidential Nuclear Initiatives include, alongside other things, the consummate elimination of short-range ground-launched nuclear missiles of less than INF range, nuclear artillery too nuclear land-mines.[2] Russian forthwith has a monopoly on these weapons because the U.S. honored its commitments to dismantle these weapons. In 2014, the Obama direction concluded, “…that the Russian Federation was inwards violation of its obligations nether the INF Treaty non to possess, produce, or flight-test a ground-launched cruise missile (GLCM) with a hit capability of 500 km to 5,500 km, or to possess or make launchers of such missiles.”[3] This missile type is forthwith operational.[4]
The linkage of Russian ground-launched non-strategic nuclear weapons to arms command violations limits the availability of data nearly these programs including the hit of the missiles, their numbers too fifty-fifty their really existence. However, the 2018 NPR records Russian Federation “…is likewise edifice a large, diverse, too modern laid of non-strategic systems that are dual-capable (may last armed with nuclear or conventional weapons).”[5] Dave Johnson, a staff officeholder inwards the NATO International Staff Defense Policy too Planning Division, has written that “…the capabilities forthwith available to Russian Federation consist of redundant, overlapping, long-range, dual-capable missile coverage of nearly all of Europe from inside Russian territory, airspace, too habitation waters.”[6] He likewise noted regarding Russia’s precision strike weapons systems that “…all… are dual-capable or convey nuclear analogs.”[7]
Despite Russian denials of its violations of the INF Treaty, General of the Army Valery Gerasimov, Chief of the General Staff, has truly documented Russian INF Treaty violations. In March 2018, he declared, “In each strategic theatre, groups of long-range cruise-missile carriers based on land, body of body of water too inwards the air convey been created, capable of providing deterrence inwards strategically of import areas.”[8] He was fifty-fifty to a greater extent than explicit inwards Nov 2017 when he said Russian Federation had “…set upwards full-scale units of vehicles capable of delivering precision-guided missiles to targets located upwards to 4,000 kilometers away.”[9] This arguing is especially interesting because he is talking nearly a ground-launched missile prohibited past times the INF Treaty with a hit substantially inwards excess of whatever Russian ground-launched missile reported inwards the Russian or Western press.
The Trump direction has revealed that the Russian ground-launched cruise missile the Obama direction concluded violated the INF Treaty, the SSC-8/9M729 is nuclear capable.[10] However, the range of Russian INF Treaty violations is reportedly much greater than a unmarried missile. This reflects Russian policy which involves multiple missile types inwards each hit category. Unless at that spot has been a massive underestimate of the hit of the SSC-8/9M729 missile inwards the available press reports, it is non the missile that General Gerasimov was talking about. There are several other nuclear-capable ground-launched cruise missiles that are reported inwards the Russian press to convey ranges inwards the INF Treaty prohibited zone. These include the R-500 too the Kalibr.
In June 2017, an unclassified intelligence study past times the National Air too Space Intelligence Center, U.S. Air Force (NASIC) indicated that Russian Federation had deployed the 3M14, a “Ground, ship, & sub” launched cruise missile with a hit of 2,500-km.[11]The 3M14 is the Russian Kalibr cruise missile, reportedly a fellow member of the Club household unit of measurement of missiles.[12] In June 2017, NASIC published a corrected version of the study which eliminated whatever reference to a ground-launched version of the Kalibr.[13] In the convoluted basis of the intelligence community too Russian arms command compliance, the correction may convey been made because the intelligence community is non allowed to liberate unclassified data indicative of an arms command violation that has non been determined past times the NSC, a policy that goes all the way dorsum to Dr. Henry Kissinger inwards the 1970s.[14]
A study of a ground-launched version of the Kalibr associated with the Iskander organisation appeared inwards a 2012 Finnish study past times Stephen Forss.[15] In July 2017, Russian expatriate Pavel Podvig wrote, “There is a full general understanding that the INF [Treaty] culprit, known equally SSC-8, is somehow related to the Kalibr sea-launched cruise missile, which nosotros know has the INF range.”[16] In August 2018, state-run Russian Federation Beyond the Headlines reported, “The novel projectiles, R-500 ‘Kalibrs,’ are a land-based version of the country’s notorious cruise missiles which were used for the kickoff fourth dimension inwards belatedly 2015 to eliminate Islamic State terrorists inwards Syria.”[17]
The Bastion is a supersonic coastal defence anti-ship too land-attack cruise missile organisation using the Oniks (3M55) missile. In July 2016, Interfax, Russia’s master copy unofficial intelligence agency, reported, “The Bastion coastal defence [cruise missile] organisation has an operational hit of 600 kilometers too tin last used against surface ships of varying shape too type…”[18] The 2017 National Air too Space Committee Intelligence study stated that the 3M55 missile (also called the P-800 Oniks) was peradventure nuclear.[19]
Soon after its kickoff exam launch, Ria Novosti, an official Russian Government intelligence agency, reported hit numbers for the R-500 ground-launched cruise missile that are inwards the INF Treaty prohibited zone.[20] In Nov 2007, Ria Novosti reported: “The flying hit of a novel cruise missile adapted for Iskander too successfully tested inwards May 2007 could move past times 500 km (310 miles).”[21] In Nov 2008, it revealed that the potential hit of the R-500 “can move past times 2,000 kilometers…”[22]Writing inwards Ria Novosti too for the UPI, Ilya Kramnik, too then Ria Novosti’s armed services correspondent, said that the hit of the R-500, too peradventure a instant missile, could last betwixt 1,200 too 3,000-km.[23] Kommersant, a major Russian describe organisation publication, maintains that the hit of the R-500 “can amount to 1,000-km.[24]
In 2014, noted Russian journalist Pavel Felgenhauer explained the differences inwards the hit numbers for the R-500. He “said the missile (R-500) has been tested at a hit of 1,000 km,” but the “…range could last extended upwards to 2,000-3,000 km past times adding extra fuel tanks.”[25] (This technique, adding external conformal fuel tanks, was applied past times the Soviets to extend the hit of the Cold War AS-15 air-launched cruise missile.[26])
It is interesting that when then-Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov announced the kickoff exam of the R-500 he boasted, “It tin last used at long hit with surgical precision, equally doctors say.”[27] Russian Federation has treated the R-500 with odd secrecy. While President Putin gave the developers of the R-500 missile a Russian province award, their names were non mentioned: “because their identity is a province secret.”[28] It seems clear that Russian Federation did non desire reporters talking to the R-500 designers. The R-500 is reported to last nuclear capable.[29] The 2017 NASIC study contains a photograph of the R-500 inwards flying but no entry for the R-500 inwards the nautical chart on land-attack cruise missiles. The Russian Defense Ministry said series production of the R-500 was underway inwards 2012.[30]
The Russian Iskander-M “aeroballistic” missile has been described past times the Russian Defense Ministry equally nuclear capable.[31] NATO likewise assesses the Iskander to last nuclear capable.[32] In 2009, the Commander of the Rocket Forces too Artillery Forces, Lieutenant General Sergei Bogatinov, said that special (nuclear) warheads were available for the Iskander too the legacy Soviet Tochka (SS-21) missiles.[33]In 2006, the Russian nuclear weapons laboratory at Sarov published a document celebrating its accomplishments, including the specific nuclear weapons it had designed. The publication stated that the “Tactical BM [ballistic missile] Iskander is equipped with a special nuclear warhead developed at our institute.”[34] Hans Kristensen of the Federation of American Scientists credits Russian Federation with nearly 140 nuclear warheads for the Iskander too SS-21 system.[35] Russian Federation has 10 brigades of Iskander missiles with 120 land reloadable launchers.[36] In August 2018, Interfaxreported that the Iskander-M had been given an anti-ship capability.[37] The Iskander forcefulness is operational too all the same beingness expanded.
The actual hit of at to the lowest degree some versions of the Iskander-M is reported to last upwards to twice the official hit of 500-km.[38] Lithuanian Foreign Minister Linas Linkevicius has said the hit is 435miles (700-km).[39] An upgraded Iskander-M missile is reportedly likewise beingness developed.[40] Because of the way the INF treaty hit Definition for ballistic missiles is written, this is likely non a violation of the INF Treaty, but it is a clear violation of the Presidential Nuclear Initiative commitments regarding short-range nuclear missiles.
The 2018 NPR records that the Russians convey nuclear capable CRBMs (Close Range Ballistic Missiles.)[41] Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 now-declassified twelvemonth 2000 CIA study predicted that Russian Federation mightiness set low-yield nuclear weapons on multiple rocket launchers.[42]Russia used these types of rockets inwards the large May 2014 nuclear practise presided over past times President Putin.[43] These weapons likewise contradict a commitment made during the Presidential Nuclear Initiatives to eliminate battlefield nuclear missiles.
Russia inherited nuclear artillery from the Soviet Union which was supposed to last eliminated nether the Presidential Nuclear Initiatives past times the twelvemonth 2000. In 2003, then-Commander of the Rocket too Artillery Forces, Colonel General Vladimir Zaritskiy confirmed the continued existence of the battlefield nuclear weapons that were supposed to convey been eliminated past times 2000.[44] In some other interview inwards Nov 2003, he said that missile too artillery weapons were all the same an of import human face of Russia’s nuclear strike capability.[45]
There are many reports that Russian Federation has retained tactical nuclear artillery. In 2004, Russian tv displayed a novel howitzer which it said: “…could last used to burn downward low-yield nuclear bombs.”[46] In 2005, a Russian Defense Ministry publication stated, “The Missile Troops too Artillery are a fighting arm of the Ground Troops. They are the master copy agency for burn downward too nuclear strikes against an enemy.”[47] In 2007, General Zaritskiy stated that novel policy guidance for the utilisation of these weapons was issued inwards 2004.[48] In September 2007, Russian journalist Nikolay Poroskov reported that tactical nuclear ground-based missiles, air-defense weapons, naval anti-ship too ASW missiles, missiles directed against basis targets too likewise artillery projectiles, nuclear mines, aerial bombs, too air-to-surface missiles be too Russia’s arsenal, it is variously estimated, amounts to 3,500 to 4,000 nuclear weapons, alongside which at that spot are nearly 1,200 warheads for missiles too 1,500 munitions of various classes.[49] In 2009 too 2010, old Duma Deputy Chairman of the Defense Committee Aleksey Arbatov indicated Russian tactical warheads tin last delivered past times artillery.[50] In 2011, Arbatov stated that the nuclear weapons of basis troops’ artillery, tactical missiles, too mines were “partially” destroyed.[51] In 2011, Colonel General (ret.) Viktor Yesin likewise said Russian Federation had nuclear artillery.[52] In 2011, the Russian Ministry of Defense stated that “…specialist units inside Russia’s regular army received ‘more than 100 cranes reliable plenty to have got nuclear warheads.”[53] In 2013, Academician Yevgeniy Avrorin, a old Director of the Sarov nuclear weapons laboratory (the All-Russian Scientific-Research Institute), inwards an interview published past times the Sarov laboratory, said the Russian 152-mm nuclear artillery musical rhythm with “a kiloton yield” had been “broadly deployed” throughout the Russian Army.[54] In 2014, Pravda.rureported, “Russia, according to conservative estimates, has 5,000 pieces of unlike classes of TNW - from Iskander warheads to torpedo, aerial too artillery warheads!”[55] In August 2016, Sebastien Roblin, writing inwards the National Interest, stated that a nuclear musical rhythm for the Russian 240-mm mortar exists.[56]
Strangely, Russian nuclear artillery is non mentioned inwards either the 2018 NPR or the 2017 DIA study on Russian armed services power. The argue is unclear. The DIA study footnotes Alexei Arbatov, a noted Russian skilful too old Vice Chairman of the Duma Defense Committee, equally its rootage that Russian Federation has nuclear artillery. Moreover, the DIA study completely ignores a later on arguing past times Arbatov who said that, “Data relating to the Russian Federation’s nonstrategic nuclear assets (medium-range aviation, operational-tactical aircraft, too missiles) are classified, but unofficial estimates hit from 2,000 to 3,000 operationally deployed nuclear weapons, a considerable segment of which tin likewise hitting targets inwards regions adjoining Russia.”[57]“Operationally deployed” nuclear weapons is the 2002 Moscow Treaty counting rule. It does non count the entire weapons inventory but but the number of weapons deployed on delivery vehicles or stored at operational bases.
It is possible that the CRBMs noted inwards the 2018 NPR convey replaced Russia’s nuclear artillery, likely because of meliorate hit too accuracy but such a alter would probable convey been covered inwards the Russian Federation press. Apparently, it has not.
9P78-1 TEL of 9K720 Iskander-M SRBM organisation with 9M723K5 missiles (Vitaly V. Kuzmin)
Russian missile defence interceptors too surface-to-air missiles reportedly convey nuclear capability too a secondary surface-to-surface role. This was kickoff reported past times noted Russian journalist Pavel Felgenhauer inwards 2010.[58] The 2018 NPR confirms the nuclear capability.[59] State media TASS (on many occasions) too Russian Federation Today convey said the S-400 has surface-to-surface capability.[60] Felgenhauer has written that such capability was “demonstrated” inwards the Russian Vostok-2010 armed services practise conducted inwards the Far East.[61]
Some of the systems cited past times Felgenhauer really probable found violations of the INF Treaty.[62] This is because the exemption from the INF Treaty prohibitions for air too missile defence interceptors only applies if they are used “solely” for air or missile defense.[63] Russian Federation reportedly has over 700 nuclear warheads for these missiles.[64]
The Armata, a centerpiece of President Vladimir Putin's armed services modernization program, is the world's kickoff serially-produced tank to convey a remotely controlled turret too a separate, highly-protected internal capsule for the crew. (AP Photo/Alexander Zemlianichenko)
Russia is fifty-fifty reportedly developing a nuclear anti-tank weapon for its novel Armata tank.[65] This is i of the increasing lists of Putin’s crazy nuclear weapons programs since it would last almost equally much of a threat to Russian forces equally to NATO forces because of the extremely short- hit of a straight burn downward anti-tank weapon.[66] Moreover, the tactical utilisation of such a weapon would last determined past times depression ranking NCOs. Nuclear weapons would likewise last distributed widely on the battlefield creating security, command too additional contamination problems. Well-connected hardline Russian journalist Colonel (ret.) Nikolai Litovkin said inwards Russian province media that Russian Federation tin but won’t make this.[67]Hopefully, he is correct, but he may last functioning equally a Russian disinformation operative inwards this case. He claimed that the Soviets had nuclear tank rounds, but at that spot is no apparent prove of this inwards opened upwards sources.
The Russian monopoly on ground-launched non-strategic nuclear weapons is dangerous. These weapons are the most relevant to the Russian strategy of deterring a NATO counterattack against a Russian invasion of a bordering NATO province nether Russia’s version of “escalate to de-escalate” (or “escalate to win”) because these weapons convey the potential to defeat NATO. Russian Federation tin launch types of attacks that no Western land tin match. Even considering the total hit of relevant weapons endorsed inwards the 2018 NPR, the same assessment is all the same true. We volition convey to a greater extent than deterrent capability, but nosotros volition all the same last unable to gibe all Russian options and, hence, maximize our deterrence of such attacks.
Dr. Mark B. Schneider is a Senior Analyst with the National Institute for Public Policy. Before his retirement from the Department of Defense Senior Executive Service, Dr. Schneider served inwards a number of senior positions inside the Office of Secretary of Defense for Policy including Principal Director for Forces Policy, Principal Director for Strategic Defense, Space too Verification Policy, Director for Strategic Arms Control Policy too Representative of the Secretary of Defense to the Nuclear Arms Control Implementation Commissions. He likewise served inwards the senior Foreign Service equally a Member of the State Department Policy Planning Staff.
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