By: Paul Goble
Vestnik Kavkaza, Nov 23).
Certainly, this naval expansion volition stimulate got the greatest bearing on the Caspian littoral states of Azerbaijan, Iran, Republic of Kazakhstan together with Turkmenistan (and for the restive republics of Russia’s North Caucasus equally well). And this is especially the illustration given Moscow’s electrical flow seek to rebase its Caspian Flotilla from Astrakhan, from where going to body of body of water is sometimes to a greater extent than difficult, to Kaspiysk, Dagestan, where access to opened upwards waters is unimpeded together with where the ships are closer to potential problem spots (see EDM, July 17).
But Moscow’s powerfulness to motion ships from the Caspian to the Sea of Azov via inland Russian deep-water canals agency that the buildup inward the Caspian is non but close the projection of powerfulness inward that region. It also affects naval deployments inward the Sea of Azov, the Kerch Strait together with the wider Black Sea. Thus, the beefing upwards of the landing capacity of the Caspian Flotilla is something Ukraine together with its supporters take away to worry close equally well, given that ships filled amongst marines together with landing arts and crafts tin move rapidly moved from i body of body of water to the other (see EDM, June 7).
The Caspian Flotilla has non attracted pregnant Western attending upwards to straight off (Russia’s role of Caspian-based ships to burn cruise missiles at targets inward Syrian Arab Republic over the concluding few years notwithstanding—see Rossiiskaya Gazeta, Nov 27).
But a to a greater extent than of import indication of Russia’s novel capacities together with intentions is provided past times the comments of Andrey Koshkin, a retired Russian colonel together with a leading specialist inward the Association of Military Political Analysts. Specifically, inward an interview amongst Federal Business Agency Ekonomika Segodnya (Economics Today), Koshkin discussed a military machine usage that took house inward the Caspian 10 days ago. As he noted, that usage posited that terrorists had seized locations on dry ground together with the Flotilla had to assault them together with recover the territory for Russian Federation (Ekonomika Segodnya, Nov 22).
“Present-day realities,” the colonel said, “dictate that Russian Federation move able cook to response to a novel sort of threat, terrorism. Diversionists together with religious-extremist suicide bombers are an especially unpredictable together with terrible assort of attack,” together with Russian Federation must move prepared to counter them. “Therefore,” he continued, “it is necessary to railroad train novel tactics together with rules that afterward volition move included” inward the basic doctrinal documents. Given that Moscow describes its Ukrainian opponents equally terrorists, it stands to argue that the kinds of amphibious attacks the Caspian Flotilla plans for inward lodge to move able to stimulate got dorsum dry ground seized past times “terrorists” could foreshadow attacks on the Ukrainian littoral inward the Sea of Azov.
During the exercise, Koshkin added, Russian divers—using what he described equally “special weapons”—went into the H2O to disarm whatever defenses “the terrorists” had pose inward place. Given that radical militant groups who mightiness seize a port urban heart along the Caspian littoral are unlikely to move together with thence technologically adept, those above-mentioned words lone become far clear that the usage Koshkin described was much to a greater extent than probable to copy a province of affairs Moscow mightiness do along the Ukrainian part of the Azov Sea coast.
But inward addition, according to the Russian military machine specialist, “militant cells of diverse radical stripes” may assault naval vessels, something the usage practiced defending against (Ekonomika Segodnya, Nov 22). Once again, this admission strongly suggests that what the Caspian Flotilla was doing has to a greater extent than immediate application to Russia’s province of affairs inward the Sea of Azov together with the Kerch Strait than to anything along the Caspian littoral.
This is non to grade that Russian Federation volition non facial expression upwards such challenges on the Caspian coast, especially inward its ain North Caucasus. Indeed, i of the reasons Moscow moved the domicile port of the flotilla from Astrakhan to Kaspiysk was to pose to a greater extent than military machine personnel closer to where Russian Federation at acquaint faces safety challenges linked to a militant insurgency. And it is for certain possible that Moscow’s determination to practise seizing what has already been “occupied” past times others reflects both concerns close that part together with also represents an human activity of intimidation against Caspian states together with especially their crude oil together with gas platforms together with pipelines inward the body of body of water itself. Projecting Russian powerfulness inward that way probable remains the most of import chore of the Caspian Flotilla. But it is non the exclusively one, equally Ukraine is straight off learning—and equally others must larn equally well.
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