By Joy Mitra
Since the early on 2000s, the BrahMos missile scheme has made India’s armed forces arsenal a formidable one. H5N1 production of a articulation Indo-Russian initiative, the weapon allows Republic of Republic of India to deliver a payload at Mach 2.8 to three velocity from 300 to 400 kilometers away. In fact, it is considered to live the world’s fastest supersonic cruise missile. India’s electrical flow inventory includes land, air, ship, in addition to submarine-launched variants of BrahMos, which has, to this point, been classified equally a conventional missile past times the U.S. Naval Air in addition to Space Intelligence Center (NASIC). Given the nuclear capabilities of China, along amongst the technological feasibility of delivering a nuclear warhead amongst the weapon system, it is probable that Republic of Republic of India volition add together a nuclear capability to BrahMos to fulfill its deterrence requirements against China. In turn, Islamic Republic of Pakistan may perceive this evolution equally an Indian endeavor to pursue a counterforce strategy, which could so motivate Islamic Republic of Pakistan to motion towards a state of create deterrence.
Threat Motivators
India’s threat landscape is dominated past times mainland People's Republic of China in addition to Pakistan, but it appears that its nuclear contest amongst mainland People's Republic of China has motivated India’s evolution of the BrahMos missile. Chinese nuclear doctrine espouses a No First Use (NFU) pledge, but it has invested inward ballistic missile defence (BMD) technologies in addition to a sea-based anti-missile system. After India’s test-launch of the Agni-V intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) inward January, Chinese armed forces analysts asserted that Beijing carried out a essay of its anti-missile scheme inward social club demonstrate that it is capable of intercepting Indian missiles inward the mid-course phase. This has caused some draw concern inward New Delhi, where some accept alleged that Chinese BMD capability “erodes the value” of India’s nuclear deterrent.
To counter China, Republic of Republic of India has 2 options: first, it could prepare Multiple Independently-targeted Reentry Vehicle (MIRV) capability that tin overwhelm the missile shield. However, this may live a less appealing course of report of action, given India’s limited fissile cloth stock in addition to the threat of the interception of warheads earlier the terminal phase. Thus, it seems probable that Republic of Republic of India volition prepare a nuclear-tipped BrahMos missile capable of penetrating Chinese missile shields, therefore fulfilling India’s deterrence requirements.
Taking Aim at China
In damage of missile technology, BrahMos is an advanced in addition to versatile delivery scheme that is aimed at overwhelming China’s BMD capability. It employs a two-stage propulsion scheme – the outset using a corporation propellant in addition to the second, a liquid fuel, air-breathing ramjet engine. As a terrain-hugging missile, BrahMos tin wing circuitous paths at supersonic speeds, making it extremely hard to intercept.
There are improvements inward the industrial plant that volition brand the missile fifty-fifty to a greater extent than formidable. The pursuit of a hypersonic version, capable of achieving velocities of Mach five to 6, has led Republic of Republic of India to brand efforts towards replacing the missile’s ramjet scheme amongst a Supersonic Combustion Ramjet (scramjet) engine. Although Republic of Republic of India maintains segregation betwixt its civilian infinite applied scientific discipline in addition to armed forces programs, it is noteworthy that the Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO) has already successfully tested the scramjet engine. This hypersonic version, due to its extreme velocity, would live virtually impossible for whatever Chinese missile defence scheme to intercept.
India’s 2016 induction into the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) removed restrictions on Category-1 items (systems capable of 300 km range/500 kilogram payload or more), which allowed for the production of an extended-range (400km) BrahMos. It was successfully tested inward March of 2017, in addition to is slated to accept an increased attain of about 800-1000 kilometers. The system’s extended attain covers nigh all of China, albeit amongst slightly reduced accuracy.
The ever-versatile BrahMos missile is capable of existence launched from air, land, in addition to sea. The Sukhoi-30 MKI, an aircraft capable of launching the BrahMos, has an operational attain of 3600 km, which aerial refueling tin augment. Notably, the refueling in addition to deep-strike capabilities were likewise validated during the recent Gaganshakti 2018 do conducted past times the Indian Air Force (IAF). India’s induction into the MTCR opened the door for vast improvements inward the BrahMos, in addition to its integration amongst the Su-30 MKI affords the attain capability to deliver a warhead to target major population centers in addition to economical hubs deep inward Chinese territory.
Implications for Pakistan
In the triangular nuclear dynamics of South Asia, the nuclearization of the cruise missile volition likewise deport upon Pakistan, which maintains an ambiguous doctrine amongst no commitment to NFU in addition to fields tactical nuclear weapons (TNWs). H5N1 nuclear-tipped BrahMos would create an additional selection for Republic of Republic of India inward targeting Pakistan’s tactical nuclear weapons batteries, amongst implications on Pakistan’s perception of India’s nuclear doctrine in addition to strategy.
One expression of the BrahMos missile that makes it worrisome for Islamic Republic of Pakistan is its might to assault targets amongst pinpoint precision, since the accuracy of the missile could potentially live used for counterforce targeting. Not coincidentally, Republic of Republic of India has successfully deployed a navigation scheme based on the Indian Regional Navigation Satellite System (IRNSS), which boasts the ability to seat inside twenty meters of a target.
The penetrative deport upon of a weapon increases due to high kinetic energy, in addition to amongst BrahMos, a warhead travelling at Mach three velocity volition generate nine times to a greater extent than forcefulness for the same object equally at Mach 1. In this way, BrahMos tin effectively neutralize heavily-fortified targets, such equally “headquarters or tactical nuclear weapon batteries, enemy airfields or high-value strategic infrastructure,” according to 1 analyst. This, coupled amongst the missile’s precision hit capability, makes BrahMos an ideal missile to penetrate hardened structures.
Though Republic of Republic of India is solely aiming to fulfill its deterrence requirements vis-à-vis China, the higher upward features of the BrahMos cruise missile gives Republic of Republic of India a powerful selection against Pakistan’s TNWs, if it should select to do so. However, Islamic Republic of Pakistan could perceive this evolution equally a threat to its nuclear arsenal potentially motion towards a state of create deterrence inward which it mates its warheads amongst delivery vehicles.
Potential Hurdles
Two issues even so require India’s attending equally it contemplates moving towards a nuclear BrahMos. First, Brahmos, existence a collaborative project, necessitates Russian consent. Notably, Republic of Republic of India has locally developed in addition to successfully tested a seeker (responsible for tracking the target) for the missile that guides it during the terminal stage (the lastly stage of a missile’s flying trajectory). The indigenous components of the BrahMos missile allow India to a greater extent than state inward comparing to Russian Federation over the collaborative project. However, since Russian Federation even so supplies the propulsion scheme of BrahMos, their consent is necessary if Republic of Republic of India is to nuclearize BrahMos.
Second, if Republic of Republic of India aims to outfit forty Su-30 MKI platforms amongst the aerial version of the BrahMos (approximately 12 pct of the 312-jet fleet), it would acquaint a discrimination problem for adversaries. For example, inward a crisis province of affairs it would live hard to know if the incoming Su-30 MKI carries a nuclear-tipped BrahMos or a conventional missile. This may acquaint the adversary amongst a “use it or lose it” dilemma, which could Pb to inadvertent escalation.
Bolstering Credible Minimum Deterrence
India is capable of arming BrahMos amongst a nuclear warhead, should it select to do so. The solid reason in addition to naval version of the BrahMos tin send a 200-kg warhead, patch the aerial version tin send a 300kg warhead. It is speculated that Republic of Republic of India has developed a fission device weighing nether 200 kg, amongst a yield of 12 to fifteen kilotons. Moreover, it likewise appears to accept a fission weapon weighing nether 300 kg, amongst a yield of 100 kilotons, which is compatible amongst the aerial delivery systems.
In low-cal of these technological advancements, the evolution of Chinese BMD systems inward the percentage volition probable incentivize Republic of Republic of India to plain a nuclear-tipped BrahMos. This volition bolster the “credible” division of the “credible minimum deterrence” requirement of the Indian nuclear doctrine. Irrespective of the nuclear BrahMos solely fulfilling India’s deterrence requirements vis-a-vis China, Islamic Republic of Pakistan may experience threatened past times this development. Pakistan, perceiving this equally a measuring past times Republic of Republic of India towards counterforce strategy, could motion towards a state of heightened readiness for nuclear warfighting, which volition inward plow increment the risks of inadvertent escalation inward a crisis.
Joy Mitra is a researcher amongst the Southern Asia Terrorism Portal at the Institute of Conflict Management inward New Delhi, Republic of Republic of India in addition to a July 2018 SAV Visiting Fellow at the Stimson Center. H5N1 version of this slice originally appeared at South Asian Voices, an online platform for strategic analysis in addition to combat hosted past times Stimson. Views expressed inward this article are the author’s ain in addition to do non necessarily reverberate those of the organizations amongst which he is affiliated.
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