BY JEFFREY LEWIS
The bear witness is in: the missile defense forcefulness organisation that the U.S. as well as its allies rely on is a lemon. On March 25, Houthi forces inwards Republic of Yemen fired vii missiles at Riyadh. Kingdom of Saudi Arabia confirmed the launches as well as asserted that it successfully intercepted all seven. This wasn’t true. It’s non only that falling debris inwards Riyadh killed at to the lowest degree ane somebody as well as sent 2 to a greater extent than to the hospital. There’s no bear witness that Kingdom of Saudi Arabia intercepted whatever missiles at all. And that raises uncomfortable questions non only nearly the Saudis, but nearly the United States, which seems to receive got sold them — as well as its ain world — a lemon of a missile defense forcefulness system. Social media images exercise seem to exhibit that Saudi Patriot batteries firing interceptors. But what these videos exhibit are non successes. One interceptor explodes catastrophically only after launch, spell some other makes a U-turn inwards midair as well as thence comes screaming dorsum at Riyadh, where it explodes on the ground.
It is possible, of course, that ane of the other interceptors did the job, but I’m doubtful. That is because my colleagues at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies as well as I closely examined 2 different missile attacks on Kingdom of Saudi Arabia from Nov as well as Dec 2017.
In both cases, nosotros works life that it is rattling unlikely the missiles were shot down, despite officials’ statements to the contrary. Our approach was simple: We mapped where the debris, including the missile airframe as well as warhead, cruel as well as where the interceptors were located. In both cases, a clear pattern emerged. The missile itself falls inwards Riyadh, spell the warhead separates as well as flies over the defense forcefulness as well as lands close its target. One warhead fell inside a few hundred meters of Terminal v at Riyadh’s King Khalid International Airport. The 2nd warhead, fired a few weeks later, nearly demolished a Honda dealership. In both cases, it was clear to us that, despite official Saudi claims, neither missile was shot down. I am non fifty-fifty certain that Kingdom of Saudi Arabia fifty-fifty tried to intercept the get-go missile inwards November.
The indicate is at that spot is no bear witness that Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has intercepted whatever Houthi missiles during the Republic of Yemen conflict. And that raises a disquieting thought: Is at that spot whatever argue to intend the Patriot organisation fifty-fifty works?
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jeffrey Lewis is managing director of the Eastern Asia Nonproliferation Program for the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey.
In fairness, the organisation deployed inwards Kingdom of Saudi Arabia — the Patriot Advanced Capability-2 or PAC-2 — is non good designed to intercept the Burkan-2 missiles that the Houthis are firing at Riyadh. The Burkan-2 flies around 600 miles as well as appears to receive got a warhead that separates from the missile itself.
But I am deeply skeptical that Patriot has e'er intercepted a long-range ballistic missile inwards fighting — at the least, I receive got even thence to meet convincing unclassified bear witness of a successful Patriot intercept. During the 1991 Gulf War, Blue Planet was led to believe the that the Patriot had near-perfect performance, intercepting 45 of 47 Scud missiles. The U.S. Army after revised that approximate downward to nearly 50 per centum — as well as fifty-fifty then, it expressed “higher” confidence inwards alone nearly one-quarter of the cases. Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 pesky Congressional Research Service employee noted that if the Army had correctly applied its ain assessment methodology consistently, the position out would last far lower. (Reportedly that position out was ane — equally inwards ane lousy Scud missile downed.)
According to a House Committee on Government Operations investigation, at that spot was non plenty bear witness to conclude that at that spot had been whatever intercepts. “There is picayune bear witness to examine that the Patriot striking to a greater extent than than a few Scud missiles launched yesteryear Republic of Iraq during the Gulf War,” a summary of the investigations concluded dryly, “and at that spot are some doubts nearly fifty-fifty these engagements.”
This study — which called on the Pentagon to declassify to a greater extent than data nearly the functioning of the Patriot as well as asking an independent evaluation of the computer program — never saw the calorie-free of day. Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 tearing lobbying drive yesteryear the Army as well as Raytheon spiked it, salvage for a summary.
Against that background, you lot tin imagine that I was pretty skeptical of the Pentagon’s claims that the Patriot shot downward Iraqi ballistic missiles inwards 2003 — claims that receive got mostly been accepted uncritically. And when I heard that missile defenses were protecting Riyadh, I wanted to meet for myself — and, unfortunately, I wasn’t surprised yesteryear what I found.
But if the Patriot organisation doesn’t work, why would the U.S. or the Saudi authorities claim otherwise?
At some level, nosotros should last sympathetic. The basic component of a authorities is to supply safety for its citizens. There is enormous delineate per unit of measurement area on the Saudi authorities to exhibit that it is taking steps to defend its citizens. By asserting successful intercepts — assertions that are uncritically spread inwards headlines — the Saudi authorities is able to introduce itself equally fulfilling its obligations to protect its population. And, similar inwards 1991, the perception that a defense forcefulness is working helps move on a lid on regional tensions. Just equally faux claims nearly missile defenses helped move on State of Israel from retaliating against Republic of Iraq during the 1991 Gulf War, perchance the fable that Riyadh is defended makes it easier to ignore the fact that Iranian proxies are firing Iranian missiles into Saudi Arabia’s capital.
But my colleagues as well as I are independent analysts, non authorities functionaries. Our obligation is to the truth — as well as inwards this case, the truth seems to last that these systems are non working. The danger hither is that leaders inwards Kingdom of Saudi Arabia as well as the U.S. volition come upwards to believe their ain nonsense. Consider this: Despite that the fact that anonymous U.S. officials receive got confirmed that at that spot was no successful intercept inwards Nov 2017, President Donald Trump had a rattling different impression: “Our organisation knocked the missile out of the air,” Trump told reporters the next day. “That’s how proficient nosotros are. Nobody makes what nosotros make, as well as forthwith we’re selling it all over the world.” This is a topic Trump has returned to ane time again as well as again. When asked nearly the threat from North Korea’s nuclear-armed missiles, Trump said, “We receive got missiles that tin knock out a missile inwards the air 97 per centum of the time, as well as if you lot post 2 of them, it’s going to larn knocked down.” Trump has repeatedly given every indication that he believes missile defenses volition protect the United States.
That’s dangerous, especially at a 2nd when the Trump direction seems poised to collapse the nuclear bargain alongside Islamic Republic of Iran as well as post Tehran downward the same path that Democratic People's South Korea followed to a nuclear capability that tin strike U.S. partners inwards the share as well as ultimately the U.S. itself. And thence nosotros demand to say the truth: Missile defense forcefulness systems exercise non stand upwards for a solution to the challenge posed yesteryear growing missile capabilities or an escape from vulnerability inwards the nuclear age. There is no magic wand that tin “knock down” all the missiles aimed at the U.S. or its allies. The alone solution is to persuade countries non to construct these weapons inwards the get-go place. If nosotros fail, defenses won’t salvage us.
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