BY JEFFREY LEWIS
On March 25, Houthi forces inwards Republic of Yemen fired 7 missiles at Riyadh. Kingdom of Saudi Arabia confirmed the launches in addition to asserted that it successfully intercepted all seven. This wasn’t true. It’s non only that falling debris inwards Riyadh killed at to the lowest degree ane someone in addition to sent 2 to a greater extent than to the hospital. There’s no bear witness that Kingdom of Saudi Arabia intercepted whatsoever missiles at all. And that raises uncomfortable questions non only virtually the Saudis, but virtually the United States, which seems to receive got sold them — in addition to its ain world — a lemon of a missile defense forcefulness system. Social media images do look to present that Saudi Patriot batteries firing interceptors. But what these videos present are non successes. One interceptor explodes catastrophically only after launch, spell some other makes a U-turn inwards midair in addition to and thus comes screaming dorsum at Riyadh, where it explodes on the ground.
It is possible, of course, that ane of the other interceptors did the job, but I’m doubtful. That is because my colleagues at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies in addition to I closely examined 2 different missile attacks on Kingdom of Saudi Arabia from Nov in addition to Dec 2017.
In both cases, nosotros institute that it is rattling unlikely the missiles were shot down, despite officials’ statements to the contrary. Our approach was simple: We mapped where the debris, including the missile airframe in addition to warhead, roughshod in addition to where the interceptors were located. In both cases, a clear pattern emerged. The missile itself falls inwards Riyadh, spell the warhead separates in addition to flies over the defense forcefulness in addition to lands nigh its target. One warhead fell inside a few hundred meters of Terminal five at Riyadh’s King Khalid International Airport. The 2nd warhead, fired a few weeks later, nearly demolished a Honda dealership. In both cases, it was clear to us that, despite official Saudi claims, neither missile was shot down. I am non fifty-fifty certain that Kingdom of Saudi Arabia fifty-fifty tried to intercept the kickoff missile inwards November.
The betoken is at that spot is no bear witness that Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has intercepted whatsoever Houthi missiles during the Republic of Yemen conflict. And that raises a disquieting thought: Is at that spot whatsoever argue to intend the Patriot arrangement fifty-fifty works?
Jeffrey Lewis is managing director of the Eastern Asia Nonproliferation Program for the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey.
In fairness, the arrangement deployed inwards Kingdom of Saudi Arabia — the Patriot Advanced Capability-2 or PAC-2 — is non good designed to intercept the Burkan-2 missiles that the Houthis are firing at Riyadh. The Burkan-2 flies approximately 600 miles in addition to appears to receive got a warhead that separates from the missile itself.
But I am deeply skeptical that Patriot has e'er intercepted a long-range ballistic missile inwards scrap — at the least, I receive got all the same to run across convincing unclassified bear witness of a successful Patriot intercept. During the 1991 Gulf War, Earth was led to believe the that the Patriot had near-perfect performance, intercepting 45 of 47 Scud missiles. The U.S. Army later on revised that justice downward to virtually 50 pct — in addition to fifty-fifty then, it expressed “higher” confidence inwards alone virtually one-quarter of the cases. Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 pesky Congressional Research Service employee noted that if the Army had correctly applied its ain assessment methodology consistently, the publish would last far lower. (Reportedly that publish was ane — every bit inwards ane lousy Scud missile downed.)
According to a House Committee on Government Operations investigation, at that spot was non plenty bear witness to conclude that at that spot had been whatsoever intercepts. “There is piddling bear witness to essay out that the Patriot hitting to a greater extent than than a few Scud missiles launched past times Republic of Iraq during the Gulf War,” a summary of the investigations concluded dryly, “and at that spot are some doubts virtually fifty-fifty these engagements.”
This written report — which called on the Pentagon to declassify to a greater extent than data virtually the functioning of the Patriot in addition to asking an independent evaluation of the plan — never saw the lite of day. Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 violent lobbying drive past times the Army in addition to Raytheon spiked it, salve for a summary.
Against that background, you lot tin imagine that I was pretty skeptical of the Pentagon’s claims that the Patriot shot downward Iraqi ballistic missiles inwards 2003 — claims that receive got mostly been accepted uncritically. And when I heard that missile defenses were protecting Riyadh, I wanted to run across for myself — and, unfortunately, I wasn’t surprised past times what I found.
But if the Patriot arrangement doesn’t work, why would the US or the Saudi regime claim otherwise?
At some level, nosotros should last sympathetic. The basic business office of a regime is to supply safety for its citizens. There is enormous pressure level on the Saudi regime to present that it is taking steps to defend its citizens. By asserting successful intercepts — assertions that are uncritically spread inwards headlines — the Saudi regime is able to introduce itself every bit fulfilling its obligations to protect its population. And, similar inwards 1991, the perception that a defense forcefulness is working helps continue a lid on regional tensions. Just every bit simulated claims virtually missile defenses helped continue State of Israel from retaliating against Republic of Iraq during the 1991 Gulf War, mayhap the fable that Riyadh is defended makes it easier to ignore the fact that Iranian proxies are firing Iranian missiles into Saudi Arabia’s capital.
But my colleagues in addition to I are independent analysts, non regime functionaries. Our obligation is to the truth — in addition to inwards this case, the truth seems to last that these systems are non working. The danger hither is that leaders inwards Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in addition to the US volition come upwards to believe their ain nonsense. Consider this: Despite that the fact that anonymous U.S. officials receive got confirmed that at that spot was no successful intercept inwards Nov 2017, President Donald Trump had a rattling different impression: “Our arrangement knocked the missile out of the air,” Trump told reporters the next day. “That’s how practiced nosotros are. Nobody makes what nosotros make, in addition to at in ane trial we’re selling it all over the world.” This is a topic Trump has returned to in ane trial again in addition to again. When asked virtually the threat from North Korea’s nuclear-armed missiles, Trump said, “We receive got missiles that tin knock out a missile inwards the air 97 pct of the time, in addition to if you lot post 2 of them, it’s going to larn knocked down.” Trump has repeatedly given every indication that he believes missile defenses volition protect the United States.
That’s dangerous, peculiarly at a instant when the Trump direction seems poised to collapse the nuclear bargain amongst Islamic Republic of Iran in addition to post Tehran downward the same path that Democratic People's South Korea followed to a nuclear capability that tin strike U.S. partners inwards the portion in addition to ultimately the US itself. And thus nosotros demand to tell the truth: Missile defense forcefulness systems do non correspond a solution to the challenge posed past times growing missile capabilities or an escape from vulnerability inwards the nuclear age. There is no magic wand that tin “knock down” all the missiles aimed at the US or its allies. The alone solution is to persuade countries non to gear upwards these weapons inwards the kickoff place. If nosotros fail, defenses won’t salve us.
Buat lebih berguna, kongsi:
