by Tony Badran
In January, the Trump management unveiled its strategy for Syria. In an address at the Hoover Institution, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson pose out 5 telephone substitution objectives, inward the process, made clear that the peak priority was containing Iran. The US, he said, would deny Islamic Republic of Iran the “arch” it is edifice from Tehran to the Mediterranean, as well as it would foreclose Islamic Republic of Iran from using Syrian Arab Republic as a springboard from which to threaten neighboring countries.
These goals brand perfect feel now, as well as they should select appeared as cogent to the Obama management as well. Rather than pursue them, however, President Obama allowed Tehran to expand its influence inward Iraq, Syrian Arab Republic as well as Lebanese Republic (to say nada of Yemen). He also turned a blind oculus to Russia’s intervention inward Syrian Arab Republic which only served to strengthen Islamic Republic of Iran as well as to assist it consolidate its gains. The outcome has been a strain on US regional alliances as well as NATO, along alongside the reemergence of Russian Federation as a revisionist mightiness inward the eastern Mediterranean.
In practical terms, however, an effective Islamic Republic of Iran strategy would also incorporate Russia, which is almost completely subject on Islamic Republic of Iran for pose down troops inward Syria. But this requires a shift inward American thinking. For the yesteryear decade, counterterrorism has dominated US policy inward the region. Washington’s attending has been focused on non-state actors such as ISIS, which has led to ignoring, or fifty-fifty enabling, unsafe geopolitical shifts as well as the empowerment of adversarial states. It is noteworthy, therefore, that the National Defense Strategy, also released inward January, emphasized that “inter-state strategic competition, non terrorism, is at nowadays the primary work concern inward U.S. national security.” In the context of the Middle East, this is an of import regulation to right America’s strategic posture as well as alignments, upended yesteryear Obama’s pro-Iran policy, as well as should serve as the foundation for US policy inward Syria.
The Trump administration, however, has so far been to a greater extent than effective at enunciating compelling principles than at translating those principles into policy. There remains a gap inward the administration's rhetoric. At a House Armed Services Committee hearing inward February, CENTCOM Commander Gen. Joseph Votel removed the armed forces factor from the strategy. Even as he describedIran as “the major threat to US interests as well as partnerships” inward the region, Gen. Votel explained that countering Islamic Republic of Iran inward Syrian Arab Republic was non “a US armed forces objective,” but rather a broader “US objective,” which could last pursued “other than through armed forces means.”
If the American armed forces were to compete to a greater extent than aggressively alongside Islamic Republic of Iran inward Syrian Arab Republic what would that strategy expect like? Recent developments signal the way. On Feb 7, a battalion-size forcefulness of pro-regime fighters, including groups commanded yesteryear the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Russian mercenaries, as well as Syrian militia, attacked a chemical compound of the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) close the Conoco gas fields inward Deir Ez-Zor. Within hours, the American armed forces annihilated one-half of the attacking force.
The firepower the US brought to comport as well as the swiftness alongside which it dispatched Iran’s and, notably, Russia’s forces ought to laissez passer on around perspective almost the powerful capabilities American forces wield. Stated differently, the number for the US inward Syrian Arab Republic is non 1 of capability. Rather, it is 1 of posture as well as clarity of purpose. Limits on the utilisation of American military, economical as well as political mightiness inward Syrian Arab Republic are oftentimes arbitrary as well as self-imposed. Now that US policy no longer accedes to Iranian command inward Syria, these limits must last rationally as well as carefully evaluated as well as re-thought inside the framework of the declared strategy.
The American demo of forcefulness inward Deir Ez-Zor sent a crucial message to the local Sunni Arab population: the US volition non allow the Iranians as well as the Assad authorities to encroach on the expanse non exactly controlled yesteryear the US, but also yesteryear its allies. Lastly, the US made abundantly clear it volition deny the Assad authorities as well as its external supporters access to the publish energy resources at nowadays nether American command inward eastern Syria. This combination of superior armed forces force, staying power, as well as protection of economical resources is a critical foundation to deny Iranian as well as authorities forces the territory of eastern Syrian Arab Republic as well as the edge alongside Iraq.
Despite these merits, the US assault on the Russian as well as Iranian forces was exclusively defensive. It aimed only to deter the Iranians against trying to capture areas inward the US zone of control. Such a defensive posture volition non arrive at Tillerson’s stated objectives of cutting off Iran’s territorial continuum as well as degrading its seat inward Syria.
If the management is sincere almost these goals, it must see ii additional steps: going on the offensive, if only to arrive at express as well as clearly defined goals; as well as working to a greater extent than closely alongside regional allies, particularly Israel.
Israeli assets tin augment US capabilities considerably. Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 few days afterwards the skirmish inward Deir Ez-Zor inward February, Islamic Republic of Iran flew a drone into Israeli air space. State of Israel responded yesteryear destroying the Iranian command middle at the Tiyas armed forces air base of operations close Palmyra, as well as and then proceeded to bomb a large number of Iranian as well as Assad authorities targets. The episode 1 time again underscored the vulnerability of Iran, to say nada of the brittle Assad regime. Close coordination alongside State of Israel to expand this ongoing targeting displace against Iranian as well as Hezbollah infrastructure, senior cadres as well as logistical routes, as well as amplifying it alongside US assets inward the region, would select a devastating number on Iran’s seat inward Syria.
By going on the offensive, the US volition also strengthen Israel’s mitt alongside Russia, reducing its demand to petition the Kremlin as well as thereby diminishing Moscow’s mightiness to seat itself as an arbiter on Israeli security. For instance, instead of haggling alongside Russian Federation to obtain its commitment to hold Islamic Republic of Iran 5 or seven kilometers away from the Israeli border, the US could adopt the Israeli seat on Iran’s entrenchment inward Syrian Arab Republic as well as assist State of Israel inward enforcing it. Such a posture would select a at 1 time number on around other critical ally, Jordan, whose role is of high importance inward southern Syrian Arab Republic as well as inward the US zone inward the east.
Assad as well as Islamic Republic of Iran are the scaffolding on which the Russian seat stands. Targeting them, therefore, undercuts Moscow as well as reduces its leverage. By but forcing Russian Federation to honor Israeli as well as Jordanian needs on the border, the US would undermine Russia’s attempt, to a greater extent than generally, to leverage its seat inward Syrian Arab Republic to brand headway into the US alliance system.
In add-on to adopting a to a greater extent than offensive armed forces posture, the US should also intensify the economical chokehold on Assadist Syria. US policy, as Sec. Tillerson made clear, is to “discourage economical relationships betwixt the Assad authorities as well as whatever other country.” The US should non only deny the authorities access to “reconstruction” money, but also it should increment as well as tighten sanctions on the authorities as well as its allies. Leaning heavily on neighbors that assist Assad evade sanctions, particularly Lebanon, which continues to facilitate the Assad clique as well as its cronies inward circumventing sanctions, should last a priority. Likewise, the US should encourage Amman to proceed denying Assad access to the edge crossing inward Deraa as well as foreclose a resumption of trade. The authorities should effectively last treated as Democratic People's South Korea on the Mediterranean.
An economical blockade would also house responsibilities on the United States. With the skirmish inward Deir Ez-Zor, the US showed it volition deny the authorities as well as its backers access to the resources of due east Syria. The US should plow this mental attitude into a regulation of policy. It should, that is to say, brand clear to local allies inward the US zone that it stands firmly against so-called “reintegration,” political or economic, alongside the regime. These resources are to last used to assist locals inward the US zone economically, which, along alongside armed forces means, is an of import tool to hold the authorities from making inroads alongside parts of the population inward the area. Along alongside proper economical direction of those resources, alternate merchandise relationships volition demand to last developed particularly alongside Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan as well as Turkey.
Which brings us to what is mayhap the thorniest challenge: repairing the human relationship alongside Turkey. President Obama’s policy deliberately upended geopolitical alignments inward Syria, most visibly alongside Turkey. The counter-ISIS displace has hardened this misalignment yesteryear deepening the US human relationship alongside the Syrian Kurdish PYD political party as well as its militia, the People’s Protection Units (YPG), the Syrian branch of the terrorist PKK grouping at state of war alongside Turkey. The concerns of NATO ally Turkey demand to last addressed to avoid farther deterioration that benefits Russian Federation as well as increases its leverage.
At the same time, however, the US cannot allow either the YPG or Turkey to undermine the principal US objective inward Syria: countering Iran. The adept tidings is that both sides demand the US as well as desire its support. The US volition demand to examine as well as nautical chart a middle path, imposing strict limits as well as weather condition on the YPG as well as accommodating Turkish requests, spell also extending certainly guarantees to the Syrian Kurds, who already relish undreamed of levels of autonomy thank y'all exclusively to US support. For all their problems, at this signal it’s neither inward the involvement of Turkey nor of the US to select the YPG choke from nether the American pollex to teach a potential musical instrument of Russian Federation as well as Iran. At the same time, the US needs to develop Sunni Arab allies as well as structures to concord as well as regulation Arab bulk areas inward lodge to avoid Kurdish-Arab tensions that the authorities as well as Islamic Republic of Iran could exploit.
This is a tall order, to last sure. However, the US cannot lose sight of its overriding involvement inward Syria: breaking Iran’s position. As the US Syrian Arab Republic strategy correctly notes, “expelling Iranian influence from Syria” depends on ending the Assad regime. Going afterwards Iranian as well as authorities assets, inward unopen coordination alongside Israel, volition simultaneously undercut the Russian seat as well as force dorsum against its drive to interpret its presence inward Syrian Arab Republic into geopolitical gains as well as incursions into US alliances.
To create this, the US needs a modify inward mindset, away from counterterrorism toward an emphasis on strategy as well as residuum of power. The US doesn’t lack the way for this task. It exactly needs clarity of piece of work as well as seriousness inward pursuing its objectives. That way going on criminal offence against Islamic Republic of Iran inward Syria.
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