Hui Zhang
Some western scholars remove hold expressed growing concern close China’s expansion of its nuclear arsenal together with what they see every bit a “sprint to parity” amongst the United States. One scholareven claimed that China could remove hold built every bit many every bit 3,000 nuclear weapons, far higher upward the justice of Western tidings agencies, which assume that China has betwixt 200 together with 300. As a comparison, the US together with Russian Federation each maintain roughly 7,000 nuclear weapons. If China had whatever involvement inwards parity, that would exit it amongst an awfully long agency to go.
It is true, though, that Beijing has been expanding its arsenal of nuclear warheads at a minor pace. In practice, however, this is less stimulate for warning than mightiness at firstly appear to live the case. China’s decision-making close the size of its nuclear arsenal together with whether to undertake modernization is determined mainly past times its policies of no firstly usage together with minimum deterrence. “No firstly use” is fairly self-explanatory: Beijing has declared that it volition non bang some other province amongst nuclear weapons unless that province does thence to China first. The goal of China’s “minimum deterrence” policy, meanwhile, is to remove hold a little arsenal of nuclear warheads capable of counterattack, plenty that at to the lowest degree some live an initial nuclear assault past times an enemy.
Beyond these policy restraints on the size of China’s nuclear arsenal, whatever large expansion would silent live constrained past times its limited inventory of fissile material. In fact, China’s production history of military-grade plutonium together with highly enriched uranium (HEU) demonstrates that it has never intended to pursue nuclear-weapons parity amongst the United States. China never officially declared that it halted HEU together with plutonium production for weapons, but newly available world sources—including memoirs past times quondam nuclear-complex workers, remarks past times quondam officials, academic publications, together with satellite imagery—show that it stopped inwards 1987. (I verbalise over these findings inwards greater depth inwards the recent report “China’s Fissile Material Production together with Stockpile.”)
Based on these novel sources, China’s electrical current stockpile of weapon-grade fissile textile consists of close fourteen tons of HEU together with 2.9 tons of plutonium. The novel HEU justice is significantly lower than other recent estimates, spell the novel plutonium figure is significantly higher. The novel estimates present that China could silent remove hold the smallest military machine stockpile of HEU together with plutonium amid the 5 nuclear-weapon states recognized past times the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. As a comparison, the electrical current stock of weapon-grade fissile textile inwards the US is estimated to include 599 tons of HEU together with 87.6 tons of plutonium.
Assuming each Chinese warhead contains close four kilograms (kg) of plutonium inwards its primary phase together with close 20 kg of highly enriched uranium inwards its secondary stage, a military machine inventory of close 2.9 tons of plutonium together with fourteen tons of HEU would back upward closed to 730 thermonuclear warheads. Given the huge gaps betwixt Chinese together with US fissile materials stocks together with nuclear weapon arsenals, it is hard to imagine China would fifty-fifty travail to accomplish parity.
A charged history. China initiated its nuclear-weapon programme inwards 1955 amongst assistance from the Soviet Union. In 1958, China started construction of its firstly gaseous-diffusion enrichment flora at Lanzhou amongst advice from Soviet experts. Moscow withdrew all its experts inwards August 1960, though, forcing China to larn inwards a novel phase of nuclear self-reliance. On Jan 14, 1964, the Lanzhou flora began to create HEU, which made possible China’s firstly nuclear examination on Oct 16, 1964.
Construction on China’s firstly plutonium production reactor, meanwhile, began at Jiuquan inwards March 1960, but slowed downwards after the Soviet experts withdrew. The reactor last reached criticality inwards Oct 1966.
Concerned close increasing tensions amongst the Soviet Union together with the growing US military machine presence inwards the region, inwards 1964 China began to relocate its military- together with heavy-industrial complexes to its southwestern together with northwestern hinterlands. These so-called “third-line” projects were located inwards these areas to protect them from Soviet or American attack. The to a greater extent than vulnerable “first-line” sites were inwards China’s border together with coastal areas, together with “second-line” sites were inwards fundamental regions. Chinese leader Mao Zedong considered the third-line construction crusade a key role of his national defence forcefulness strategy, together with third-line projects were required to live built quickly.
In March 1964, Beijing began site choice for a novel gear upward of nuclear-material production facilities inwards the third-line area, facilities required to live “near mountains, scattered together with concealed” inwards the words of many Chinese publications. Beijing began construction on a gaseous diffusion enrichment flora at Heping inwards 1966. That same year, it decided to build Plant 816, a plutonium production complex that duplicated the 1 at Jiuquan, inwards caves nether a mountain. Construction on this third-line flora started inwards Feb 1967, but the extremely hard stone made progress real slow. China ended the unfinished projection inwards early on 1980.
In the tardily 1960s, amongst China concerned close a possible state of war amongst the Soviet Union, Beijing initiated a instant crusade to rapidly build nuclear-material production facilities inwards the third-line area. Given the real dull progress of Plant 816 together with the urgent postulate for backup for the Jiuquan complex, inwards 1968 Beijing decided to chop-chop build some other plutonium production complex at Guangyuan. Construction started on the Guangyuan reactor inwards Oct 1969 together with it became operational inwards Dec 1973. China likewise decided inwards 1969 to build an additional third-line facility, an enrichment flora at Hanzhong, to live called Plant 405. That plant, however, did non start performance until the 1990s, together with when it did, is was using Russian centrifuges that had been imported for civilian purposes.
Some accounts suggest that China attempted to build some other cloak-and-dagger reactor for plutonium production called Plant 827 inwards the 1970s. While at that spot was a Plant 827, the available data suggests that it was a military machine heavy-water tritium production reactor. Beijing started edifice it inwards 1970 close Yichang inwards Hubei province. The travail entailed construction of ii heavy-water reactors inwards caves—a tritium-production reactor together with a civilian powerfulness reactor—plus a radiochemical interrogation institute located downstream beside the Yangtze River. The plant’s employees described the firm every bit “two reactors together with 1 chemic technology scientific discipline project” (liang dui yi hua). The projection has been called an early on travail to explore together with develop nuclear powerfulness inwards China. The radiochemical interrogation institute was probable intended to do interrogation together with evolution on reprocessing the spent fuel from the powerfulness reactor. However, Plant 827 was never finished. Like Plant 816, the third-line plutonium production complex, it was terminated inwards the early on 1980s after Beijing pursued its “military-to-civilian conversion” policy, a national programme to encourage the entire defence forcefulness manufacture to shift its focus from military machine products to the civilian sector.
Meanwhile, inwards low-cal of the continuing grim confrontation amongst the Soviet Union, inwards 1976 Beijing required the reactors together with gaseous-diffusion enrichment plants to increment production nether the Fifth Five-Year Plan (set for 1976 to 1980.) After 10 years of operation, the Lanzhou flora had only reached its master copy blueprint capacity of close 0.1 meg separative locomote units (SWU) per yr inwards mid-1975. (An SWU is a stair out of the travail required to dissever isotopes of uranium during an enrichment process.) The flora increased its output past times closed to seventy per centum past times 1980 past times raising cascade flow rates together with improving separation membranes. The Heping gaseous-diffusion enrichment plant, which began operating inwards June 1970, had reached its blueprint capacity of 0.11 meg SWU per yr inwards 1975. As amongst Lanzhou, the Heping flora pursued the goal of increasing its output during the Fifth Five-Year Plan, together with past times 1980 had increased its production capacity past times 1.5 times its master copy designed capacity, to 0.16 meg SWU per year.
After ix years inwards operation, the Jiuquan reactor reached its intended powerfulness flat of 600 megawatts thermal (MWt) inwards mid-1975. Subsequently, a keen bargain of travail went into increasing its plutonium production charge per unit of measurement over the course of educational activity of the Fifth Five-Year Plan, together with the charge per unit of measurement had gone upward past times 20 per centum past times 1979, a yr ahead of schedule. The Guangyuan reactor achieved criticality inwards Dec 1973 together with its intended powerfulness flat of 600 MWt past times Oct 1974. By increasing the powerfulness together with uranium irradiation level, the Guangyuan reactor was able to increment its plutonium production charge per unit of measurement past times thirty per centum past times 1978, leading to it beingness dubbed the “1.3 reactor.” Together the Jiuquan together with Guangyuan reactors reached the goal of becoming “2.5 reactors” every bit required nether the Fifth Five-Year Plan.
A large shift. Driven mainly past times security concerns, China continued for a spell to increment fissile materials production for weapons, but at the outset of the 1980s it all of a abrupt reduced production every bit role of its national crusade of military-to-civilian conversion. By the goal of the 1980s, it would cease making HEU together with plutonium for weapons altogether.
The procedure that would atomic number 82 to this resultant started inwards 1978, when China adopted a policy of economical reform together with an open-door policy that allowed unusual businesses to found themselves inwards the country. China shifted its focus from military machine to economical evolution based on Deng Xiaoping’s sentence that at that spot would live “no large globe wars inside the adjacent 20 years.” It was a large shift from Mao Zedong’s strategy of constant state of war preparation.
In Apr 1979 the Second Ministry, which oversaw nuclear affairs, proposed that the nuclear manufacture should focus on military-to-civilian conversion. After 1981, the fundamental regime reduced investment inwards edifice infrastructure to create nuclear textile together with decreased its production of HEU together with plutonium. Meanwhile, the regime began to increment its investment inwards the civilian nuclear sector.
In the early on 1980s, Beijing decided to cease locomote on the third-line nuclear facilities silent nether construction. It suspended the unfinished Plant 816 inwards June 1982, together with ended it ii years later. About 85 per centum of the civil technology scientific discipline locomote had been finished together with to a greater extent than than lx per centum of the flora equipment had been installed. In the tardily 1980s, the flora was converted for non-nuclear civilian purposes, including fertilizer production, together with inwards 1993 it was renamed the Chongqing Jianfeng Chemical Company. The projection was declassified inwards 2002 together with role of the site was opened every bit a tourist attraction inwards 2010. Meanwhile, Plant 827 closed closed to 1982, when its ii heavy-water reactors were silent at the blueprint stage.
China’s fissile textile makers had to discovery their ain agency to survive. On Oct 7, 1979, the Second Ministry submitted a asking to the fundamental regime to live allowed to export enriched uranium to other countries. It received immediate blessing from Deng Xiaoping, together with inwards 1981, China began to furnish low-enriched uranium (LEU) for the international market. This suggests that inwards 1980, the Lanzhou gaseous-diffusion enrichment flora probable stopped making HEU together with shifted to producing LEU for civilian powerfulness or naval reactors. The Lanzhou flora was closed downwards on Dec 31, 2000 together with demolished inwards 2017.
The Heping plant, meanwhile, is believed to remove hold ended HEU production for weapons inwards 1987, together with since thence has produced enriched uranium products for non-weapon military machine or dual-use purposes.
Entering the 1980s, plutonium production decreased rapidly every bit well. The Jiuquan reactor was closed downwards past times Nov 1986. As some Chinese publications noted, inwards August 1987, at a State Council coming together chaired past times then-Vice Premier Li Peng, it was decided officially that the Jiuquan complex was to “close the reactor together with halt reprocessing” (ting dui ting hua) together with to “maintain the flora every bit a reprocessing base of operations (for civilian purposes.)” The flora did halt plutonium production closed to that time. The reactor entered the decommissioning procedure inwards 1990.
After reaching a plutonium production peak inwards the tardily 1970s, the Guangyuan reactor probable reduced production inwards the early on 1980s amid the military-to-civilian conversion campaign. It probable started the conversion locomote inwards September 1984. Some accounts suggest that conversion was consummate inwards 1986, but that the flora never operated 1 time again due to security concerns. It probable closed inwards 1986. In August 1987, the fundamental regime made a strategic determination to goal military machine production together with switch to civilian production at the Guangyuan complex, which could hateful that China officially ended plutonium production inwards 1987. After 1988, the flora began conversion to civilian use, including for aluminum production, together with inwards 1990 it entered the decommissioning process.
Zhang Plutonium Chart.png
Chinese production of plutonium for nuclear weapons over time. Source: Hui Zhang.
Will China bring together disarmament efforts? China’s history of fissile textile production shows that when the province faced serious external threats, it rushed to increment stocks every bit it did amongst the third-line program. However, given an improved external security province of affairs outset inwards the tardily 1970s—in particular, normalized diplomatic relations betwixt China together with the United States—China pursued military-to-civilian conversion, which led it to cutting off fissile textile production inwards the 1980s. It did thence fifty-fifty without beingness required to past times international agreements, during a catamenia when the global nuclear warhead inventory was at its peak. This history hints at how the international security province of affairs volition impact China’s mental attitude to whatever negotiations on aFissile Material Cut-off Treaty, or involvement inwards the procedure of multilateral nuclear disarmament.
China has maintained a nuclear policy that features a no-first-use pledge, a thin but effective nuclear force, together with avoidance of a costly arms race. Guided past times a self-defense nuclear strategy, China’s ongoing nuclear modernization is exclusively aimed at ensuring the powerfulness to retaliate nether all circumstances. As such, US missile defence forcefulness plans are a major driver shaping China’s nuclear weapon modernization plans, which currently include an expansion of its arsenal to include to a greater extent than together with improve intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). As the US seeks to gain strategic nuclear primacy over China, China volition for sure convey measures to recover the strategic balance.
China’s existing stockpile of fissile textile would live sufficient for its electrical current modernization programs. However, if the US moves frontward amongst plans for missile defence forcefulness together with infinite weapons, China may create upward one's heed it needs to a greater extent than multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRVs) for its ICBMS or submarine-launched ballistic missiles inwards guild to maintain its deterrence capability. That inwards plow mightiness require to a greater extent than plutonium together with HEU to fuel those weapons. If China believes it needs to retain the choice of restarting fissile textile production, it would probable live unwilling to bring together a Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty. Moreover, China’s limited stockpile of fissile materials puts a cap on its arsenal of weapons, which could influence the country’s determination on when to bring together a multilateral disarmament process.
On the other hand, China volition probable constrain its nuclear expansion if the US pledges to bound its missile defence forcefulness plans together with non neutralize or severely undermine Beijing’s nuclear deterrence capability. If the US wishes to avoid a costly arms race together with constrain whatever meaning expansion of Chinese nuclear forces, the US should abandon its pursuit of absolute security together with convey usual vulnerability amongst China.
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