The comment highlighted inward blueish below is by/from Col. (Ret,.) David Maxwell; and, his contact information is at the bottom of this page. RCP, fortunascorner.com David Maxwell Comment: “Excellent advice from Nick. I shout out back President Trump volition appreciate this advice every bit it fits into his negotiating sense in addition to philosophy. And I strongly concur amongst adding human rights to the agenda. President Trump has seat the Earth operate for this inward his vocalization communication inward Seoul in addition to inward the State of the Union.
Excerpts (but read the entire piece):”
It is this final i that is going to induce friction inside the ROK/US Alliance. I believe President Trump volition last real much willing to walk away in addition to non allow a bad deal. But President Moon believes inward almost peace at whatever terms in addition to in all probability believes whatever bargain is improve than no deal. This volition receive got to last worked. (and unfortunately it volition last hard to teach past times the philosophy that a cowardly peace is improve than a merely war.)
A South Korean soldier inward Seoul walks past times a boob tube covert showing pictures of President Trump in addition to North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. (Jung Yeon-Je/AFP/Getty Images)
The author holds the Henry Wendt Chair inward Political Economy at the American Enterprise Institute in addition to is a founding fellow member of the Committee for Human Rights inward North Korea.
The story of North Korea’s emergence every bit a nuclear-weapons province is i of the most implausible tales of our time. Pyongyang is straight off ready, according to Dear Respected Leader Kim Jong Un, to commence mass production of nukes in addition to intercontinental missiles. How inward the Earth could a modest in addition to impoverished Earth amongst a tiny, distorted economic scheme describe this off?
Careful review of that improbable tape underscores the crucial utilization of diplomacy inward this triumph of sorts. Pyongyang’s path into the withdraw global social club of declared nuclear powers was paved past times — indeed, contingent upon — sharp in addition to successful “engagement” amongst an international community unremittingly opposed to the advances Democratic People's Republic of Korea managed to achieve. Looking dorsum on the past times few decades of diplomatic maneuvering, it’s hard to avoid the determination that the North Koreans outclassed their counterparts, in addition to they receive got the nukes to examine it.
We mightiness desire to brush upwards on that history straight off that President Trump has agreed to run across with the Dear Respected Leader earlier the terminate of May. Ignorance of the past times could Pb to major miscalculations.
For skillful or ill, the Kim regime’s strategic objectives rest essentially unchanged since 1950, when Kim Il Sung (Kim Jong Un’s grandfather) launched the surprise assault against the South that triggered the Korean War. To this day, North Korean ideology posits the unconditional reunification of the Korean people nether an “independent socialist state” — in addition to this presupposes the eradication of the existing authorities inward South Korea.
Given South Korea’s extraordinary economic accomplishments in addition to democratic progress, the North’s quest for unconditional absorption of the South could solely seat about to seem fifty-fifty remotely plausible if the U.S.-South Korea alliance were disbanded, U.S. troops sent home, in addition to Washington’s nuclear guarantee withdrawn. And this is just where the North’s long-range nuclear missile programme figures in. By pointing a nuclear pistol at Uncle Sam, the Kim menage unit of measurement regime hopes it tin laissez passer the axe eventually forcefulness the U.S. out of the Korean Peninsula — in addition to thereby reset the challenger against the South.
Despite its non bad strides over recent years, North Korea’s nuclear-missile programme is non all the same finished — in addition to its completion may last compromised or fifty-fifty thwarted past times the international community’s current, U.S.-led “maximum pressure” campaign. Because the North Korean economic scheme is in addition to thus distorted in addition to dependent, it is peculiarly vulnerable to sanctions.
This helps explicate the abrupt peace offensive against Republic of Korea this year. Evidently, Democratic People's Republic of Korea judged Seoul’s progressive, Sunshine policy-oriented authorities to last the most promising candidate for breaking ranks on the sanctions campaign. Peeling Seoul off mightiness merely opened upwards up the breathing infinite necessary to convey the North’s nuclear game upwards to the adjacent degree — in addition to if Washington could last fooled into inadvertently undermining its ain sanctions campaign, all the better.
So much for the strategic background to the upcoming talks inward Panmunjom. Now for North Korean tactics.
North Korea has a criterion retinue of negotiating ploys:
A skillful North Korean negotiating squad seizes immediate command of the agenda. Typically it volition all of a abrupt halt talks, or unexpectedly demand resumption, to throw the other side off its game. If Team North does non accept command of the agenda, talks teach close downward until Team North says it is fourth dimension to start talking again.
● The “agreement” vanishes. No “agreement” is an understanding unless the North Koreans order it is an understanding — in addition to it remains an understanding solely every bit long every bit they order it is an agreement.
● Redefining telephone substitution terms. Words hateful solely what the North Korean side says they mean, no affair what others may think. Take the give-and-take “independent,” every bit inward Kim Jong Un’s entreaty to President Moon Jae-in for North in addition to South to strive for “independent” reunification. In Kim code language, this agency “no foreigners allowed” — i.e., no aid from America for you. Similarly, when Pyongyang says it is willing to run across amongst Washington, Seoul or other parties “without conditions,” this genuinely agency that whatever abrogation or violation of previous agreements past times Democratic People's Republic of Korea must non last discussed — that would last a “condition,” later on all. By the same token, Pyongyang tin laissez passer the axe ever concur to Korean “denuclearization” every bit long every bit the term is defined just their way — that is, amongst Republic of Korea “denuclearized” first, through termination of its alliance amongst a nuclear United Statess.
● No “win-wins.” Contrary to Asian tradition, North Korean negotiators frown on “face-saving” outcomes. From the North Koreans’ perspective, their induce is merely in addition to the adversary’s is past times Definition unjust — otherwise, the adversary would non last inward disagreement amongst Pyongyang. Consequently it is non solely foolish to exit anything on the tabular array for the other side — it is positively unpatriotic. Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 skillful negotiation ends amongst Democratic People's Republic of Korea taking everything that’s upwards for grabs, in addition to every bit good amongst humiliation or outright disgrace for the other side.
Can South Korean or American leaders run across amongst North Koreans without getting their pockets picked? Both previous North-South summits were essentially fiascos for the U.S.-South Korea alliance, in addition to the U.S. was deceived in addition to cheated inward its high-level diplomacy amongst the North at the terminate of the Clinton administration.
That said: There is no intrinsic argue well-prepared Western principals quest come upwards out the worse from their exchanges amongst Democratic People's Republic of Korea — in addition to thus long, that is, every bit they confront the existent existing Kim menage unit of measurement regime, rather than the imaginary i in addition to thus many of their predecessors preferred to bargain with.
A few full general suggestions in addition to guidelines:
● Never run across inward Pyongyang: Those pilgrimages solely afford the dictatorship complimentary propaganda glasses bolstering domestic legitimacy.
● Add your ain agenda items, at the final infinitesimal if quest be. One of these should ever last North Korean human rights. Why is the regime in addition to thus scared of this issue? Because its high command has Googled “crimes against humanity” in addition to “Nuremberg.”
● Never hesitate to telephone telephone the North out for bad faith, dishonesty or whatever of the other tradecraft it brings to negotiations. Nothing personal. We should non attention nigh atmospherics inward in addition to thus doing; nosotros should non last trying to win a popularity challenger amongst the planet’s most heinous regime.
● No to a greater extent than good-faith concessions or goodwill gestures. Period. Look where those receive got brought us. Nothing without something tangible inward furnish — in addition to promises arrive at non count. It is Pyongyang’s plough to examine its credibility — in addition to it has a lot of making upwards to do.
● Be cook to walk away. Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 bad bargain is much worse than no bargain at all.
High-level meetings amongst Democratic People's Republic of Korea are a zero-sum game. Any gains past times Seoul or Washington are losses for Pyongyang — in addition to vice versa. Team North is looking for unforced errors in addition to extracted concessions to consolidate its nuclear status, fund its programs, carve upwards the U.S.-South Korea alliance in addition to delegitimize the South. Team North every bit good regards genuine peace amongst the South in addition to genuine denuclearization every bit ominous, potentially destabilizing disasters for their regime.
From start to finish, Team West must behaviour inward hear how their every activeness volition impact alliance cohesion, the push clit per unit of measurement area induce in addition to North Korean threat reduction. Not to the lowest degree important: Team West must never forget that the Kim menage unit of measurement regime is the North Korean threat — in addition to that the ultimate guarantor of safety of the Korean Peninsula, someday, volition last an scheme that does non include the North.
The Washington Post · past times Nicholas Eberstadt · March 9, 2018
Buat lebih berguna, kongsi:
