In Dec 2016, the Navy released a novel strength construction assessment (FSA) that called for a fleet of 355 ships - substantially larger than the electrical current strength of 280 ships. In reply to a asking from the Subcommittee on Seapower in addition to Projection Forces of the House Committee on Armed Services, CBO explored the costs of achieving that destination inwards a previous report. To expand on that analysis, CBO has estimated the costs of achieving a 355-ship fleet nether 2 alternatives. The way in addition to then compared those scenarios amongst 2 other alternatives involving smaller fleets. For all 4 alternatives, CBO explored shipbuilding in addition to operating costs, the composition in addition to capabilities of the fleet, in addition to effects on the shipbuilding industry.
The 4 alternatives would touching on the size in addition to composition of the Navy inwards the next ways, CBO estimates:
Under the showtime alternative, the Navy would practice a 355-ship fleet past times edifice to a greater extent than ships over the side past times side twenty years, achieving the strength destination past times 2037. The terms to build, crew, in addition to piece of job a 355-ship fleet achieved past times novel construction would average $103 billion (in 2017 dollars) per twelvemonth through 2047.
Under the instant alternative, the Navy would gain a 355-ship fleet sooner, inwards nearly 2028, but would non plow over the composition that the service wants until 2037 - past times using a new-ship construction schedule like to the schedule nether the showtime alternative, in addition to equally good past times extending the service life of to a greater extent than or less large surface combatants, amphibious ships, develop on submarines, in addition to logistics ships. Its costs would average $104 billion annually through 2047.
Under the tertiary alternative, the Navy would hold a fleet comparable inwards size in addition to composition to today’s fleet of 280 ships. It would terms an average of $91 billion annually through 2047.
The 4th choice would terms the to the lowest degree in addition to illustrates the long-term implications of funding the Navy at roughly the degree it has received historically for send procurement. By 2047, the fleet would autumn to 230 ships. In total, that choice would terms an average of $82 billion per twelvemonth over the side past times side thirty years.
Shipbuilding Costs
CBO estimates that, over the side past times side thirty years, coming together the 355-ship destination amongst new-ship construction solitary would terms an average of $26.7 billion annually (in 2017 dollars). Combining that shipbuilding programme amongst service life extension programs (commonly called SLEPs) for to a greater extent than or less existing ships to plow over a 355-ship fleet faster would terms an average of $27.5 billion annually; the costs for those SLEPs would last concentrated over the side past times side 10 years. The smaller fleets would terms less: If the Navy was kept at its electrical current size, shipbuilding costs would average $22.4 billion annually. By contrast, if funding for the fleet was kept at roughly historical levels, shipbuilding costs would average $16.8 billion per year.
Operating Costs
CBO projects that the costs to piece of job in addition to hold the Navy’s ships volition grow faster than full general inflation inwards the economy. On the reason of historical experience, pay for armed services in addition to civilians is projected to increase faster than inflation equally are costs to furnish in addition to repair the Navy’s ships. As a result, CBO expects that the costs for functioning in addition to back upward for all of the alternatives - fifty-fifty a substantially smaller fleet - would last higher inwards 2047 inwards existent (inflation-adjusted) terms than comparable costs for the existing fleet. By 2047, the annual terms (in 2017 dollars) of operating a 355-ship fleet would last nearly $38 billion (or 68 percent) to a greater extent than than the $56 billion the electrical current fleet of 280 ships costs to operate. Overall, costs for the choice that would include SLEPs would last higher inwards before years because to a greater extent than or less of the ships would last retired afterwards than nether the showtime alternative. H5N1 fleet that maintained the size in addition to composition of the electrical current fleet would terms $22 billion (or 39 percent) to a greater extent than inwards 2047. And the smallest fleet would yet terms $12 billion (or 21 percent) to a greater extent than than the fleet costs to piece of job today.
Capabilities of the Different Fleets
CBO compared the 4 choice fleets using several criterion measures of capability. Not surprisingly, the larger fleets would provide the most capability, whereas the smallest fleet would provide the least. To mensurate capability during peacetime, CBO used the publish of ships providing frontward presence (those on patrol overseas inwards peacetime) in addition to the publish of vertical launch organisation (VLS) cells - missile tubes - on those ships. For a wartime measure, CBO used the publish of ships that could last “surged" (that is, quickly deployed) overseas inside thirty days in addition to the publish of VLS cells on those ships. Because the choice that includes SLEPs would retain to a greater extent than cruisers in addition to destroyers inwards the fleet - retiring ships afterwards than the other alternatives - in addition to they deport large numbers of VLS cells, it would increase the fleet’s VLS inventory past times twenty portion past times 2032 for less than 2 portion additional terms compared amongst the 355-ship choice without SLEPs.
Implications for the Shipbuilding Industry
CBO anticipates that shipyards would need to brand pregnant investments inwards facilities in addition to infrastructure to build the larger fleets. For the smaller fleet alternatives, maintaining the Navy at its electrical current size would require picayune modify to the industrial base of operations that builds warships, whereas a fleet based on historical funding would Pb to less send construction delineate concern for the shipyards, amongst the possibility that i or to a greater extent than could larn out the industry
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