Foreward
Over the past times 27 years, the US has often planned as well as operated as though contest has ended as well as that at that topographic point would last an inexorable clit toward U.S.-led institutions as well as basis views. The growing reemergence of state-based competition, fifty-fifty when it falls curt of armed forces conflict, signals that the optimism of U.S. policy has outpaced the reality of other countries’ ain ambitions to create their ain realities.
Events over the past times decade receive got led to a growing realization past times many inward Washington that several states receive got been investing inward the tools as well as concepts necessary to gain advantage—economically, politically, as well as geographically—in ways that exercise non involve the military. Some of the most well-known examples are Russian efforts to sow discord inward national elections throughout NATO fellow member countries as well as China’s edifice of armed forces outposts inward international waters inward the South mainland People's Republic of China Sea. Many other examples be of states competing piece avoiding the chance of war. It has taken Washington some fourth dimension to realize that these activities are deliberate efforts to advance a country’s involvement as well as are often at the expense of the US or a U.S. ally.
Earlier this fall, CSIS convened a day-long workshop to examine the hit of challenges the US faces inward this re-emerging expanse of province competition. The workshop brought together to a greater extent than than seventy national safety experts from a hit of disciplines as well as from across the political spectrum. Over the course of study of the day, participants engaged inward a robust—and respectful—discussion virtually the challenges as well as opportunities facing the US inward an increasingly competitive world. The discussions led to proposed initiatives the US could undertake to ameliorate advance U.S. interests over the coming decade.
The workshop continued CSIS’s long history of bridging the political landscape inward Washington as well as looking at the core of problems to detect solutions that tin contribute to a stronger, to a greater extent than secure United States. Seemingly now, to a greater extent than than whatsoever fourth dimension inward recent memory, Washington needs to a greater extent than of these efforts to focus on developing existent solutions to existent problems, with shared purpose overriding partisanship.
Introduction
Events of the past times decade receive got convincingly demonstrated that other major nations are create as well as capable of competing with the US for relative economical as well as safety advantage. Some of this contest is manifesting inward the increase of advanced capabilities that challenge U.S. armed forces ascendence inward traditional domains. Much of it, however, is exhibited inward a hit of activities occurring somewhere inward the zone betwixt the routine execution of unusual policy as well as the threshold of what most citizens would recognize as warfare. Many analysts inward the US receive got come upwards to refer to this expanse inward the spectrum of conflict as the greyness zone.
Jake Sullivan of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
explains our lack of a strategy for greyness zone competition.
In September 2018, the Center for Strategic as well as International Studies (CSIS) hosted a day-long Global Security Forum (GSF) workshop to enquiry fundamental assumptions virtually the so-called greyness zone, explore the contours as well as dimensions of its challenges, as well as position areas of greatest hope for U.S. policymaking. Approximately seventy national safety idea leaders joined the off-the-record discussion, representing a various cross-section of political as well as ideological viewpoints on U.S. unusual policy as well as coming with a hit of public- as well as private-sector experiences inward such fields as diplomacy, development, international economics, irregular warfare, energy, as well as defense forcefulness (See Appendix). CSIS organized the workshop into 3 as various groups, past times ideology as well as areas of expertise, with each grouping led past times bipartisan co-chairs. Groups were asked to develop initial findings as well as recommendations, which were compared at the goal of the day.
This newspaper distills the major themes as well as points of tension revealed inward the September 2018 GSF workshop. The workshop’s goal was to advance a needed conversation as well as activeness computer program for the US as it executes its national safety policy amid a multidimensional greyness zone of competition. The newspaper organizes findings as well as recommendations into the next categories:
Definitions as well as assumptions: What is greyness zone contest as well as why does it matter?
Challenges: What are the greatest risks to U.S. interests from others’ greyness zone tactics?
U.S. strengths: Where does the US receive got relative advantages it tin leverage?
Priorities for action: Where should the highest priorities last for improving U.S. competitive posture inward lite of others’ expected greyness zone tactics?
The newspaper concludes past times offering initial policy prescriptions, actionable today, that the CSIS study squad assesses as critical for advancing U.S. competitiveness against greyness zone challenges.
Definitions as well as Assumptions
Problem delineation is often the most hard aspect of strategy development. For an emergent challenge laid similar modern greyness zone competition, where terminology is non yet common, the challenge is peculiarly daunting. Our GSF Experts Workshop validated the lack of a shared national safety community definition of greyness zone challenges. At the same time, our experts were universal inward their understanding that at that topographic point is a occupation set, roughly defined betwixt peace as well as war, besetting U.S. policymakers.
The CSIS enquiry squad proffered a working definition for utilisation inward the day’s discussion, i it had previously formulated for CSIS’s Countering Coercion inward Maritime Asia report. That study defined coercion inward the greyness zone as follows:
An elbow grease or serial of efforts beyond steady-state deterrence as well as assurance that attempts to accomplish one’s safety objectives without resorting to direct as well as sizable utilisation of force. In engaging inward a greyness zone strategy, an role instrumentalist seeks to avoid crossing a threshold that results inward opened upwards war.
Participants spent meaning fourth dimension discussing the definition as good as possible modifications to it. One grouping mostly preferred a broader conceptualization that defining greyness zone tactics as whatsoever tools of statecraft used past times whatsoever province below the threshold of war. Participants inward some other grouping found it most compelling to focus on defining the challenge to a greater extent than fluidly, past times virtue of where the US had chosen to allow contest to move unanswered.
Heather Conley of CSIS explains what makes the greyness zone hence dangerous.
Despite some differences, a mutual laid of characteristics virtually greyness zone tactics emerged inward the discussions. First, participants mostly agreed that at that topographic point is a bounded threshold approximately a laid of activities that powerfulness last called greyness zone competition, political warfare, and/or hybrid challenges. The exact parameters powerfulness last hard to define—whether defined past times a competitor’s action, the target it seeks, or our ineffectiveness inward responding—but the reality of the West existence increasingly vexed past times a laid of challenges betwixt peace as well as state of war was clear.
Second, participants highlighted the definitional importance of competitors’ intentionality. China’s coercive economical activity powerfulness last considered past times some an extension of routine unusual policy if its coercive potential is an externality of its purer goals. If, however, that same activity is assessed to last portion of a planned drive of coercion, it seems to jibe a unlike definition, which some powerfulness telephone telephone greyness zone conflict. Examples raised inward the workshop included systematic Chinese actions to create debt dependency for leverage with unusual capitals as well as Chinese misuse as well as exploitation of international laws as well as norms governing merchandise to give its ain companies a leg upwards piece undermining unusual competitors.
Third, the groups focused on the chemical component of ambiguity as a defining facet of greyness zone competition. Masking attribution, such as using proxies or covert activity, as well as exploiting undeclared or ambiguous western safety commitments were oftentimes cited examples. Russian Federation used both approaches deploying “little greenish men” inward Ukraine. mainland People's Republic of China also exploits U.S. signaling, such as regarding the importance as well as nature of U.S. alliance commitments inward Asia. Ambiguity helps competitors remain below the threshold at which the US powerfulness respond assertively to challenges piece silent advancing goals beyond that which they powerfulness attain through routine unusual policy.
Finally, many experts highlighted the multidimensional as well as variegated nature of greyness zone threats. All tools at a state’s disposal—military as well as non-military—and fifty-fifty the soul sector receive got been used to advance competitive strategies inward the greyness zone of conflict. The US itself has used sanctions as well as tariffs to leverage its economical powerfulness for safety advantage. Today, other actors, especially mainland People's Republic of China as well as Russian Federation but also Islamic Republic of Iran as well as North Korea, appear increasingly goodness at using the tools at their disposal to compete inward the greyness zone.
Linda Robinson of RAND explains the purpose greyness zone strategies
and what results they tin achieve.
Disinformation, unloosen energy coercion, illicit financing, as well as claims of sovereignty beyond international borders as well as other legal claims were cited past times our experts as examples. Unsurprisingly, U.S. policy decisions, failings, as well as vulnerabilities receive got assisted the successful utilisation of these tools. Ultimately, piece the workshop demonstrated that at that topographic point may last difficulty inward agreeing on an exact definition of greyness zone tactics, at that topographic point was widespread understanding on the patterns of activity that run into the characteristics described above. Likewise, the groups independently highlighted many of the same challenges that the US faces inward the greyness zone.
Challenges
Althouh participants inward the GSF Experts Workshop identified a broad hit of extant as well as potential greyness zone challenges to U.S. interests, some actors as well as tactics garnered to a greater extent than attending than others. mainland People's Republic of China as well as Russian Federation were clear foci of concern, as were non-military threats seemingly designed to erode world faith as well as trust in, as well as the comparative wages of, gratuitous marketplace democracies.
The CSIS enquiry squad did non proscribe the actors as well as actions that the working groups should speak over or prioritize. Moreover, groups were composed of experts spanning multiple regional as well as functional disciplines. Participants recognized Islamic Republic of Iran as a powerful regional influencer, demonstrating the powerfulness to utilisation a breadth of tools. They also acknowledged that Democratic People's South Korea has begun to develop sophisticated global plough over inward a few narrower aspects of greyness zone competition. Yet almost all participants gravitated toward a focus on mainland People's Republic of China as well as Russian Federation as the greyness zone competitors of greatest concern. The assembled experts could receive got been unduly influenced past times the contents of the Trump administration’s National Security Strategy as well as National Defense Strategy, both of which emphasized contest with mainland People's Republic of China as well as Russian Federation over other challenges. However, based on its observations of experts inward the GSF Workshop, the CSIS study squad assesses that a genuine consensus exists approximately this prioritization amid experts across the ideological spectrum.
Some of the participants conceptualized challenges for the US inward the greyness zone inward price of perceived U.S. weaknesses or vulnerabilities. Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 recurrent topic was the perception that the US fails to human activeness swiftly as well as clearly to signs of greyness zone competition. This seems to contrast with the relative agility of its competitors. Competitors’ tools for dividing gratuitous marketplace democracies, both internally as well as against each other, are numerous. For example, Russian Federation uses its command over state-run unloosen energy companies as well as infrastructure to leverage gas deliveries to accomplish desirable political outcomes inward Europe or to discourage undesirable outcomes similar the rerouting of gas supplies to Ukraine.
Members of Iran's Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC). | STRINGER/AFP/Getty Images
Both Islamic Republic of Iran as well as Russian Federation receive got also used proxies to accomplish safety or political aims inward portion because doing hence effectively slows response past times exploiting divisions inward the US as well as elsewhere over the legality of response options aimed at the sponsor state. Democratic People's South Korea has conducted cyberattacks against Western companies that took years for the U.S. authorities to publicly attribute to North Korea. mainland People's Republic of China denied U.S. accusations that it was militarizing reclaimed terra firma inward the South mainland People's Republic of China Sea, side-stepping the potential for direct confrontation over the matter.
These examples demonstrate how competitors receive got succeeded inward creating hurdles to response inward scenarios or domains where attribution may non last straightforward or where domestic as well as allied consensus cannot last reached on an appropriate policy response. Workshop participants expressed the greatest occupation organisation virtually threats from disinformation as well as political as well as economical coercion. Participants noted the United States’ relatively tepid as well as reactive response to unusual disinformation campaigns as well as its reliance on sanctions as the sole arrow inward the U.S. economical statecraft quiver.
Of concluding note, the give-and-take of challenges inward i grouping brought forrard an intensive combat over defining U.S. national safety interests. Nowhere inward the workshop’s activities was the multifariousness of assembled viewpoints to a greater extent than on display than inward the genuine points of disagreement on national interests. The combat appeared to hinge on differing views of the U.S. role inward the world. For instance, some experts sought to emphasize U.S. democratic norm-setting inward the international sphere as an of import interest. Other experts wanted a narrower focus on preventing attacks on the US as well as maintaining the nation’s prosperity. There was also frustration from some that resources constraints were non existence considered, which powerfulness forcefulness a needed reprioritization amid interests. In short, the give-and-take seemed to mirror debates ongoing inward Earth as well as academia over the basic tenets that ought to underlie U.S. unusual policy.
A mutual topic throughout the discussions, despite departure inward how to see the challenges, was that a primary U.S. shortcoming is its ineffectiveness inward leveraging its strengths as well as capitalizing on opponents’ weaknesses (which is the adversary’s goal inward the greyness zone). Demonstrative of this core takeaway was the groups’ arrivals at similar views of U.S. strengths.
U.S. Strengths
In add-on to laying out challenges to U.S. greyness zone competitiveness inward the context of the threats it faces, the groups largely conceptualized the United States’ “opportunities” through the context of its strengths. There was a distinct as well as notable convergence over the sources of U.S. geopolitical as well as domestic strengths as well as widespread stance that many of its supposed weaknesses could last used as strengths if properly employed or leveraged. The breadth as well as competency of the tools at the United States’ disposal was itself considered a root of dandy strength. Within the toolkit, standouts appeared to last the U.S. economy, alliance as well as partner networks, armed forces capability, as well as cultural suasion.
Multinational Fleet Sails inward Formation Ahead of RIMPAC 2018 | Intelligence Specialist 1st Class Steven Robles, US Navy
Participants noted that the U.S. economic scheme is silent unparalleled past times whatsoever other unmarried province adversary inward the world. Additionally, the US has an expansive network of alliances as well as partners that it tin leverage. Within these relationships, it silent wields the most influence to shape the management of both explicit price as well as laws as well as broader international norms. U.S. “hard power,” especially inward the course of study of its tidings as well as armed forces capabilities, was considered some other root of strength that could last leveraged to warn, deter, as well as boundary escalation if properly employed. The potential for U.S. “soft power” influence to create chance inward greyness zone competitions was also oftentimes cited past times experts.
ADM Michael S. Rogers, 17th Director of the National Security Agency, explains how
the United States’ adversaries seek to extend their influence at the expense of U.S. influence.
Some U.S. strengths, participants broadly agreed, receive got been flipped past times adversaries as well as used against it. This has been especially truthful of the relative transparency of U.S. institutions as well as society, inside which adversaries receive got exploited the freedoms of human face as well as the press to execute disinformation campaigns. Other core tenets, such as its abide by for the dominion of law, receive got been exploited to paralyze the US into inaction. If the US tin instead larn to leverage the numerous advantages of gratuitous marketplace republic over autocracy, it tin re-establish them as attributes that expand U.S. influence as well as impede greyness zone competitors.
Some of the most encouraging thoughts of the solar daytime emerged from this give-and-take of actualized as well as potential U.S. strengths. While the participants had pointed out several flaws with the United States’ electrical flow approach to the greyness zone, its number of possible advantages outweighed its shortcomings. These discussions highlight for the CSIS study squad that the US already has many of the tools that it needs to acquire a highly effective greyness zone competitor. It demand exclusively larn how to wield them effectively as well as flexibly to exercise so.
Priorities for Action
A mutual number with electrical flow discussions of greyness zone activity is the temptation to admire the occupation without advancing the province of fine art on actionable solutions or policies. To assist jump-start a needed dialogue on action, grouping co-chairs inward the GSF Experts Workshop were asked to drive their respective discussions towards policy initiatives as well as priorities for activeness that powerfulness assist the US ameliorate unopen the gaps on its weaknesses as well as exploit its actual or relative advantages inward to a greater extent than effective ways. These efforts resulted inward a mix of recommendations that included broader priorities at the strategic as well as policy levels as well as specific prescriptions. Although each of the groups arrived at a slightly unlike formulation of recommendations, the collective conclusions painted a relatively clear moving-picture present of where the US should focus its efforts and, to some extent, how to exercise so.
The broader priorities for U.S. activeness that were raised across the groups roughshod into 3 categories. First, the groups largely placed an emphasis on world awareness as well as education. Participants expressed the demand to inform Earth of the greyness zone challenge laid as well as highlight as well as broadcast the malintent of competitors to policymakers inward the legislative as well as executive branches. Two groups explicitly suggested the establishment of media literacy programs to dampen the effects of disinformation on U.S. society.
Seth Jones of CSIS explains what makes the greyness zone “gray”.
The mo category focused on improving the U.S. toolkit. Many experts emphasized bolstering our advantages, such as our technological competitiveness as well as economical prowess. One grouping recommended laying out to a greater extent than specific priorities as well as responses for U.S. sanctions regimes, which would standardize as well as expedite the utilisation of sanctions as a punitive or coercive measure. The same grouping also recommended increasing investments inward private- as well as public-sector scientific as well as technological enquiry to brand certain the US retains its technical advantages over its adversaries.
The tertiary category of recommendations for priority activeness focused on the demand for greater integration of effort, whether that last across the US government, betwixt sectors of U.S. society, or with our allies as well as partners worldwide. Each of the groups suggested data sharing agreements, whether that last betwixt Earth as well as soul sectors or betwixt the diplomatic, security, as well as tidings agencies of the US as well as its allies. Some also recommended pursuing foundational national safety reforms to unify greyness zone responses as well as actions.
Matthew Goodman of CSIS explains the United States’ unique leadership
role inward organizing greyness zone strategies with partners as well as allies.
Ideas raised inward this vein included a novel organizational construct, placed either inward the National Security Council or the Department of State. One grouping suggested creating a matrixed interagency approach overseen past times the National Security Council, bringing together a mix of cross-functional, cross-domain, as well as cross-expertise teams capable of leveraging the variety of U.S. tools nether i authority.
While each of the groups varied to some bird inward how they framed U.S. policy priorities, the collective results are nonetheless illuminating for the time to come of U.S. contest inward the greyness zone. The categories of priorities as well as initiatives identified inward the GSF Experts Workshop clearly highlight occupation organisation over the ineffectiveness of the electrical flow construction of U.S. bureaucracy, the strategic messaging challenges for Earth as well as senior policymakers, as well as the demand to cooperate with non-U.S. authorities partners, including allies, civil society, as well as the commercial sector.
Conclusion
The outcomes presented inward this newspaper from the 2018 GSF Experts Workshop are exclusively the starting fourth dimension fruits of a national safety dialogue as well as activeness computer program for edifice viable bipartisan approaches to countering challenges manifesting inward the greyness zone. CSIS scholars volition build on the foundations laid inward the Global Security Forum lawsuit with additional enquiry inward 2019 focused on developing a drive planning framework for countering greyness zone challenges as well as making associated recommendations for changes to U.S. policies, organizations, as well as authorities.
Michael Green of CSIS explains why some of the United States’
most of import alliances are getting stronger.
The workshop also succeeded inward its secondary goal of edifice bridges of understanding across disciplines as well as ideologies to strengthen the character as well as endurance of U.S. national safety solutions. In a menstruum of U.S. history otherwise notable for domestic divisiveness, it was of import that a large bipartisan grouping were able to come upwards together inward unified purpose, eager to tackle i of the most pressing as well as complex safety challenges of our fourth dimension as well as create to forge novel thinking virtually how to run into this challenge.
Senior Vice President; Henry A. Kissinger Chair; Director, International Security Program
Kathleen H. Hicks is senior vice president, Henry A. Kissinger Chair, as well as manager of the International Security Program at the Center for Strategic as well as International Studies (CSIS).
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