By LTG Michael K. Nagata
Achieving significantly greater strategic success against terrorism remains within America’s grasp, but alone if nosotros are willing to hold out every bit adaptive in addition to flexible—indeed to a greater extent than so—than our terrorist adversaries take away hold proven to be. Achieving this volition require us to brand investments, adopt practices, in addition to brand choices nosotros previously take away hold not. The utilisation of this narrative is to encourage a larger in addition to to a greater extent than effective give-and-take well-nigh these investments, practices, in addition to choices. Although the U.S. Government (USG) has ofttimes claimed to take away hold a whole-of-government approach inward utilizing all elements of national might to struggle terrorism, our struggle against the Islamist State of Republic of Iraq in addition to Syrian Arab Republic (ISIS) has demonstrated that nosotros must strengthen our emphasis in addition to resourcing of non-kinetic counterterrorism (CT) efforts to agree the strengths that nosotros in addition to our allies take away hold developed since 9/11 inward kinetic efforts.
Where We Have Been
According to a recent U.S. Army-sponsored RAND study, since 9/11 the U.S.A. has deployed to a greater extent than than 2.7 1000000 military machine service members in addition to authorities civilians to comport or back upwardly dozens of CT campaigns in addition to military machine operations; many of which endure to this day.2 During these years, the U.S.A. has developed extraordinary capabilities in addition to strengths for contesting terrorism, ranging from precise military machine actions to capture or kill terrorist leaders, to impressive police pull enforcement operations to convey terrorist perpetrators to justice, to sophisticated intelligence operations to enable both ourselves in addition to our international partners to disrupt unsafe terrorist plots, in addition to beyond.
Entire CT career fields take away hold been created or take away hold expanded. The “Find-Fix-Finish-Exploit-Analyze” formula for illuminating in addition to attacking terrorist networks has decease a permanent business office of the CT lexicon. All Americans tin in addition to should hold out immensely proud of the progress nosotros take away hold made inward creating the most impressive array of kinetic CT capabilities inward our history. However, despite our best efforts in addition to the efforts of our partners in addition to allies some the world, terrorism today is to a greater extent than widespread in addition to to a greater extent than complex than when nosotros began.
Today, the Salafi Jihadist movement—as good every bit a multitude of other trigger-happy extremist movements—continues to grow globally. Outside our country, the work of Salafi Jihadist terrorism has expanded from its master copy roots inward locales such every bit Yemen, Sudan, Afghanistan, in addition to Islamic Republic of Pakistan into dozens of countries in addition to across every region. Terrorist movements across the political-religious spectrum are becoming increasingly effective inward using the meshing in addition to inspiring radicalization in addition to mobilization of individuals some the world, including within our ain country. Despite our efforts of the yesteryear 17 years, terrorists’ might to lift revenue in addition to resources, sponsor in addition to broadcast extremist ideologies, recruit fighters, in addition to displace terrorist operatives from solid reason to solid reason has significantly grown.
Said to a greater extent than simply, the U.S.A. is facing an upward strategic trajectory of global terrorism. According to the U.S. State Department’s annual Country Reports on Terrorism publication, inward the v years afterward 2012, worldwide terrorism-related attacks increased yesteryear 64 per centum in addition to associated fatalities yesteryear to a greater extent than than 130 per centum although absolute numbers thankfully leveled off inward 2015 in addition to 2016.3 This has occurred despite the otherwise effective activity that the U.S.A. in addition to our partners some the the world take away hold taken against our terrorist adversaries.
Here at home, the FBI is inward some phase of investigating at to the lowest degree 1,000 homegrown trigger-happy extremists, inspired or connected inward some way to international terrorist ideologies, inward communities across all 50 states.4 The homegrown trigger-happy extremist (HVE) population inward the U.S.A. has expanded significantly since 2014, in addition to an unprecedented pose out of people are radicalizing in addition to mobilizing to violence inward response to ISIS’ rise. We are at ane time seeing to a greater extent than in addition to to a greater extent than minors—some every bit immature every bit 12—becoming to a greater extent than radicalized in addition to involved inward active plotting.5 Although nosotros take away hold seen a drib inward actual HVE attacks during the yesteryear ii years, the scope, scale, in addition to trajectory of this challenge should stay real worrisome for us all.6
Where We are Now
Today, the U.S.A. finds itself simultaneously confronted alongside both a render to nation-state strategic rival (e.g. Russia, Communist People's Republic of China in addition to beyond) inward improver to the large international in addition to domestic terrorism challenge nosotros take away hold faced since 9/11.7 Not surprisingly, this is forcing us toward choices over priorities, resources, in addition to risks that are both complex in addition to strategically consequential. America is increasingly challenged to effectively bargain alongside terrorist threats without the luxury of having CT hold out our entire strategic focus.
For example, the U.S.A. is approaching an inflection indicate inward its struggle against ISIS. While the U.S.A. in addition to The Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS take away hold waged a highly successful military machine drive against ISIS’ geographic caliphate in addition to its associated military machine arm inward the Levant, large numbers of their fighters nonetheless stay there, in addition to to a greater extent than importantly, ISIS’ globally distributed network has decease capable of planning, resourcing, coordinating, and/or inspiring terrorist attacks inward every hemisphere.8
Meanwhile, ISIS is today a malign “innovator” amid terrorists everywhere inward demonstrating the pregnant advantages to hold out gained yesteryear incorporating technological advances. One representative is ISIS’ extraordinarily effective utilisation of the meshing to promote radicalization in addition to mobilization-to-violence inward ways that take away hold added thousands of adherents to its global ranks. Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 2nd representative has been ISIS’ efforts to weaponize in addition to effectively employ affordable in addition to commercially available applied scientific discipline such every bit unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) into devices that tin both heighten or fifty-fifty comport terrorist attacks.9 We should non hold out surprised that terrorists volition seek to take away hold wages of the relentless footstep of technological change.
Where We Should Go
The U.S.A. has extraordinary strengths in addition to capabilities inward dealing alongside terrorism. However, inward a speedily accelerating the world that increasingly provides to a greater extent than powerful tools for both practiced in addition to bad actors alike, nosotros should stay mindful of Abraham Lincoln’s 1862 exhortation:
The dogmas of the repose past, are inadequate to the stormy present. The occasion is piled high alongside difficulty, in addition to nosotros must ascension alongside the occasion. As our representative is new, so nosotros must remember anew in addition to deed anew.
This is non to propose nosotros should abandon the tools or techniques that take away hold served us so good since 9/11; many of which were the fruits of experimentation, lessons learned, in addition to smashing American courage over years of toil, investment, in addition to fifty-fifty straight combat against terrorism inward its diverse guises. However, nosotros take away hold already learned that these impressive strengths take away hold non achieved a durable reduction inward the international or domestic reach in addition to scale of terrorism thence far.
Therefore, nosotros should to a greater extent than seriously examine the inquiry of what capabilities nosotros should at ane time invest inward to accomplish such durable outcomes; peculiarly every bit nosotros must devote to a greater extent than of our strategic attending in addition to resources to other national safety challenges. The answers prevarication within what tin hold out imperfectly described every bit “non-kinetic counterterrorism.” Examples are efforts to combat recruiting online, foreclose the creation of to a greater extent than terrorists, or frustrate terrorists’ might to move or garner revenue.
While nosotros should hold our already formidable capability to assault in addition to disrupt terrorist activities, terrorists take away hold expanded their arrive at in addition to networks into environments in addition to locations, both internationally in addition to domestically, where the utilisation of kinetic CT approaches volition hold out unwelcome, inappropriate, and/or counterproductive. Inevitably, nosotros volition take away hold to increasingly rely on forms of CT that create non involve the utilisation of physical force, kinetic action, or fifty-fifty police pull enforcement arrest; though these volition stay necessary to some degree.
Furthermore, if nosotros tin brand ourselves stronger in addition to to a greater extent than effective inward non-kinetically contesting the “drivers” of terrorist movements, nosotros would probable discovery that nosotros could both accomplish the durable outcomes nosotros seek, in addition to that non-kinetic CT activities are far to a greater extent than economical than the large costs typically associated alongside kinetic CT action.
This is non to propose nosotros must lavish equivalent financial or manpower investment on non-kinetic forms of CT on the scale of what nosotros take away hold invested into kinetic efforts. The organizations, both governmental in addition to non-governmental, that currently strive to foreclose or rival terrorism through non-kinetic agency possess neither the absorptive capacity nor, inward some cases, the proven methodologies today that could justify such a massive investment approach. Furthermore, the U.S.A. in addition to many partner governments take away hold learned they must hold out real thoughtful inward how they back upwardly or fund non-kinetic programs such every bit terrorism prevention or messaging/countermessaging, especially alongside honour to our obligations to ensure civil in addition to human rights, personal privacy, political freedoms, in addition to liberty of commerce.
Nonetheless, both within our ain solid reason in addition to across the international community—we involve a much to a greater extent than vibrant give-and-take well-nigh the bird to which nosotros are willing in addition to able to increment our investments inward price of financial resources, manpower, in addition to genuine policy back upwardly for becoming to a greater extent than effective inward at to the lowest degree v non-kinetic counterterrorism efforts:
1. Preventing terrorism—also referred every bit countering trigger-happy extremism (CVE)—by assisting local communities, schools, police pull enforcement, in addition to families inward identifying those most vulnerable to terrorist recruitment in addition to enabling local actors to either foreclose or “off-ramp” these individuals or groups yesteryear didactics them how to address their needs or grievances without resorting to violence.
2. Countering or contesting terrorist ideologies, peculiarly inward the arena of offering to a greater extent than attractive positive alternatives to their poisonous ideas, spell retaining our efforts to critique in addition to expose the terrorist narrative.
3. Countering or contesting terrorist utilisation of the internet, both every bit a global in addition to increasingly secure command-and-control system, in addition to every bit an increasingly powerful radicalization in addition to recruitment instrument.
4. Denying terrorists the resources they require to operate in addition to comport their malign activities. This goes beyond denying traditional terrorist financing, in addition to should include frustrating their access to non-traditional forms of revenue (e.g. crypto-currency), speedily evolving techology (e.g. UAS), in addition to increasingly powerful fabrication technologies (e.g. 3-D printing).
5. Preventing terrorist travel, both domestically in addition to internationally. ISIS lone has inspired the move of tens of thousands of unusual terrorist fighters across several regions, in addition to the ease in addition to convenience of international move continues to rise. Nonetheless, the U.S.A. in addition to international community must observe pathways toward to a greater extent than effectively denying terrorist move without hindering the commercial prosperity or private liberty that legitimate move affords.10
It is of import to admit that many some the the world strive to succeed inward these arenas today. Both inward the U.S.A. in addition to some the world, thousands of extraordinary, dedicated people from across many agencies, across civil society, in addition to within manufacture (e.g. the telecommunication in addition to social media industry) are striving to contribute inward diverse ways to all v of these areas today, in addition to take away hold achieved some pregnant successes. Unfortunately, the collective reach in addition to scale of these are insufficient today, they almost universally endure from pregnant resources shortfalls, and—perhaps most importantly—they would create goodness from the constant in addition to durable policy back upwardly that kinetic CT approaches relish today.
Regarding policy support, it is of import to recognize that during the yesteryear 17 years, kinetic CT actions against terrorists in addition to their plots take away hold experienced bright in addition to substantial policy support. Not everything nosotros attempted to create inward locating or attacking terrorists was successful, but nosotros learned from every mistake. We were willing to absorb these setbacks, publicly defend them against both domestic in addition to international criticism, in addition to persevere because it was so of import that nosotros larn how to succeed kinetically.
Preserving the integrity of CBRN forensic samples is administratively in addition to logistically burdensome.-Kaszeta (iStockPhoto)
Laboratory ResearchPreserving the integrity of CBRN forensic samples is administratively in addition to logistically burdensome.-Kaszeta (iStockPhoto)SHARE IMAGE:https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR1928.html?adbsc=social_20180320_2212921&adbid=975928167633334272&adbpl=tw&adbpr=22545453>.
3 U.S. State Department, “Country Reports on Terrorism: 2012-16,” available at <https://www.state.gov/j/ct/rls/crt/>.
4 Mark Hosenball, “The U.S. Has More Than 2,000 Probes Into Potential or Suspected Terrorists: FBI Director,” Reuters, May 16, 2018, available at <https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fbi-wray/us-has-more-than-2000-probes-into-potential-or-suspected-terrorists-fbi-director-idUSKCN1IH341>.
5 Leigh McManus, “Chilling Footage Shows Four Knife Wielding Boys ISIS Claim Carried Out Bomb Attacks inward Syria,” The Daily Mail, August 22, 2018, available at <http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6087513/Chilling-footage-shows-four-knife-wielding-boys-ISIS-claim-carried-bomb-attacks-Chechnya.html>; Shireen Korkzan, “American ISIS Widow Charged inward Hammond Federal Court alongside Lying to FBI, NWI.com, July 24, 2018, available at <https://www.nwitimes.com/news/local/american-isis-widow-charged-in-hammond-federal-court-with-lying/article_2d907599-56da-565d-aab9-3efa66c787cc.html>; Simon Veazy, “Foreign Women in addition to Minors Who Joined ISIS ‘Significantly Underestimated,’ Says Report,” Epoch Times, July 24, 2018, available at <https://www.theepochtimes.com/foreign-women-and-minors-who-joined-isis-significantly-underestimated-says-report_2602419.html>; 850 WFTL, “FBI: ISIS-Inspired Teen Allegedly Stabs Three During Sleepover inward BallenIsles,” available at <https://www.850wftl.com/fbi-isis-inspired-teen-allegedly-stabs-three-during-sleepover-in-ballenisles>; Tiffany Caldwell, “A Utah Student Flew the ISIS Flag—and Then Brought a Bomb to School, Police Say,” The Salt Lake Tribune, March 9, 2018, available at <https://www.sltrib.com/news/2018/03/08/fire-fizzled-out-before-igniting-a-handmade-explosive-device-hidden-in-a-utah-high-school-students-backpack/>.
6 Lora Shiao, Acting Director of Intelligence, National Counterterrorism Center, “Adapting to Defend the Homeland Against the Evolving International Terrorist Threat,” hearing earlier the U.S. Senate Committee on Homeland Security in addition to Governmental Affairs, Dec 6, 2017, available at <https://www.odni.gov/files/NCTC/documents/news_documents/FINAL_NCTC-Shiao_SHSGAC-SFR_6-December-HearingWEB.pdf>.
7 President Donald Trump, National Security Strategy of the U.S.A. of America (2017), the White House, available at <https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/…/NSS-Final-12-18-2017-0905.pdf>; James Mattis, National Defense Strategy of the U.S.A. of America (2018): “Sharpening America’s Competitive Edge,” The Department of Defense, available at <https://www.defense.gov/Portals/1/…/2018-National-Defense-Strategy-Summary.pdf>.
8 U.S. State Department, “The Global Coalition—Working to Defeat ISIS Fact Sheet,” March 22, 2017, available at <https://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2017/03/268609.htm>.
9 Don Rassler, “The Islamic State in addition to Drones: Supply, Scale, in addition to Future Threats,” The Combatting Terrorism Center at Terrorism, July 11, 2018, available at <https://ctc.usma.edu/islamic-state-drones-supply-scale-future-threats/>.
10 Russ Travers, Acting Director, National Counterterrorism Center, “National Counterterrorism Center Acting Director Russ Travers Speaks at DoDIIS Worldwide,” Wednesday, August 29 2018, available at <https://www.dni.gov/index.php/nctc-newsroom/nctc-speeches-testimonies-and-interviews/item/1901-national-counterterrorism-center-acting-director-russ-travers-speaks-at-dodiis-worldwide>.cco.ndu.edu
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