by Arun Prakash
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s palpable pride at the recent completion of a “deterrent patrol” yesteryear the navy’s kickoff home-built, nuclear-propelled, ballistic-missile armed submarine (termed SSBN), INS Arihant, is understandable. As a acre committed to “no kickoff use” (NFU), it is of critical importance that an adversary contemplating a nuclear (first) smasher should never survive inwards uncertainty close the credibility of India’s nuclear deterrent in addition to the assurance of a swift, devastating response. Given the variety of transparency provided yesteryear satellites in addition to other technical means, the land-based legs of our nuclear triad (missile sites in addition to air-bases) stay exposed to enemy attack. The best way for Republic of Republic of India to supply invulnerability to its deterrent, therefore, was to mail it underwater, on a SSBN; the 3rd leg of the triad. Once the submarine disappears underwater, it becomes virtually impossible to locate in addition to tin terminate stay on patrol for months, amongst its ballistic missiles ready for launch on the PM’s orders. This is the variety of credibility that Arihant in addition to her sisters volition supply India’s nuclear deterrent inwards the future.
The successful completion of Arihant’s maiden deterrent patrol volition survive analysed threadbare yesteryear analysts worldwide for clues in addition to pointers. Apart from demonstrating that the submarine (after a reported mishap inwards 2017) is fully operational, it is also proof of crew proficiency inwards operating its nuclear-plant in addition to other complex systems, institution of measure operating procedures in addition to functionality of the navy’s crucial long-range underwater radio communication system. While this is a skillful augury, excessive jubilation or hyperbole, at this stage, could erode the credibility of the “third leg of the nuclear triad”, for 3 reasons.
First, in that location is the number of missile ranges. From a submarine patrol expanse inwards mid-Bay of Bengal, Islamabad is 2,500 km, piece Beijing in addition to Shanghai are over 4,000 km. Even from the northern-most border of the Bay of Bengal, Kunming is 1,600 km in addition to Chengdu 2,000 km. Therefore, to target cities in addition to nuclear forces deep within PRC or Pakistan, from a “safe haven”, Republic of Republic of India needs a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) of 6,000-8,000-km range. The missile, reportedly, carried yesteryear the Arihant is the K-15, whose attain falls below 1,000 km. SLBMs of longer attain are, perchance the way, but they volition equip Arihant’s successors.
Second, Republic of Republic of India has, in addition to then far, followed an unorthodox system, inwards which the National Command Authority (NCA) manages the nuclear deterrent through a “troika” consisting of the Strategic Forces Command (SFC), the Department of Atomic Energy in addition to DRDO. While scientists are the custodians of nuclear warheads in addition to assist mate them amongst the SFC’s missiles in addition to IAF fighter-bombers, the MoD in addition to Raksha Mantri stay out of the loop.
Since Arihant in addition to her sisters volition comport “cannisterised” missiles, amongst pre-mated warheads, scientists accept been eliminated from the chain, amongst custody in addition to command of weapons devolving on the submarine’s captain. No doubt, “fail-safe” electronic permissive activity links (PAL) accept been installed to ensure mo compliance amongst an authorised “launch” command from the NCA, piece preventing accidental launch, structural in addition to doctrinal changes are urgently required too. Which brings us to the 3rd expanse of draw concern — an effective command in addition to command construction to cater for this novel capability.
The Chairman Chiefs of Staff Committee (COSC) is, notionally, a substitution functionary inwards the nuclear command chain, responsible to the PM for functioning of the SFC. With the operationalisation of Arihant, his role assumes greater criticality. Under existing rules, the appointment of chairman is tenable yesteryear the senior-most service principal who may (depending on his retirement date) serve for durations, varying from thirty days to eighteen months. He discharges this duty on a part-time basis, inwards add-on to running his ain service. No other nuclear weapon province has such a farcical arrangement, in addition to this impinges on the credibility of our deterrent.
Given the gravity in addition to magnitude of his responsibilities, inwards the context of the nuclear triad, the Chairman COSC, inwards his electrical flow avatar, needs to survive urgently replaced either yesteryear a Chief of Defence Staff or a Permanent Chairman COSC, amongst an independent charter in addition to a fixed tenure. This tin terminate come upward close solely through rigid political intervention that overrules entrenched bureaucratic opposition.
Apart from its strategic significance, the Arihant is a alive manifestation of PM Modi’s “make inwards India” vision. Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 number of major private-sector companies contributed to the Advanced Technology Vessel (ATV) programme yesteryear mastering esoteric technologies to pattern in addition to fabricate systems for the vessel. This navy-managed DRDO projection has also spawned a huge country-wide indigenisation physical care for yesteryear which small-scale in addition to medium industries, accept contributed components manufactured to high precision in addition to reliability specifications.
The nuclear-reactors of our SSBNs volition necessitate re-fuelling (with fresh Uranium rods) every few years. The physical care for beingness a rather lengthy one, Republic of Republic of India would require an inventory of at to the lowest degree 3-4 SSBNs to keep i on deterrent patrol off each seaboard. Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 small-scale forcefulness of nuclear assault submarines (SSN) would survive required for protection of SSBNs in addition to other roles. Thus, inwards a 50-60 twelvemonth perspective, Republic of Republic of India should survive looking at a nuclear submarine forcefulness of 8-12 SSBNs in addition to SSNs.
While Indian scientists, engineers in addition to designers accept learnt a lot close the complex technologies involved inwards nuclear submarine construction to ensure that Arihant’s successors are substantially, made inwards India, in that location are substitution areas of R&D which telephone phone for urgent focus in addition to where nosotros may necessitate assistance. These include propellant technology for SLBMs of inter-continental range; the pattern of a SSBN which volition accommodate a battery of 16-24 such SLBMs; in addition to the indigenous evolution of a powerful nuclear-reactor to elbow grease a 10,000-12,000 ton SSBN.
India’s nuclear triad in addition to its accessories are going to toll the acre trillions of rupees inwards the decades ahead. It would survive delusionary to imagine that a large military, in addition to nuclear weapons, but yesteryear themselves, tin terminate assure India’s safety in addition to bequeath “great power” condition on it. On the other hand, a grand-strategic vision that integrates military machine mightiness amongst a national safety doctrine volition sure as shooting accomplish both.
The author is a quondam Chief of the Indian Navy
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