By: Abigail Dawson, Matt Schrader
A grouping of academics as well as technical experts associated with the Red Flag River projection held a seminar inwards Jan 2018 to hash out the feasibility of diverting H2O from the Himalayas to Xinjiang. Image Source: Beijing Daily
A proposal yesteryear a grouping of evidently government-linked scientists as well as engineers to divert H2O from Himalayan glaciers to the arid say of Xinjiang, inwards the PRC’s northwest, caught the imagination of the PRC network after the showtime conference held for give-and-take of the projection inwards Nov 2017. Following the broad attending on the Chinese-language web, articles on the proposal—known equally the Red Flag River Project (红旗河方案)—soon made their way into English-language media, as well as were picked upwards across the world. The proposal, which would divert enormous amounts of H2O northward, was greeted with especial warning inwards parts of the Indian press, since Himalayan glacier melt is an of import source of H2O for ii of India’s most of import rivers, as well as the ii countries receive got a long history of disagreement as well as mistrust related to piece of work of the region’s scarce H2O resources. The proposal was, inwards all likelihood, a fraud perpetrated yesteryear an unscrupulous entrepreneur seeking to enhance coin for a lending scheme. PRC network users, accustomed to the pervasiveness of “fake news” on the Chinese-language internet, speedily sniffed out the falsehood, as well as buried the Red Flag River proposal nether a mount of online skepticism.
The corrected information, however, never made its way dorsum into English-language reporting, leaving the narrative of a massive PRC H2O diversion projection unchallenged. This “threat inflation” dynamic, wherein misinformation nigh PRC applied scientific discipline or technical achievements originates on the Chinese-language internet, as well as is spread widely as well as largely unchallenged yesteryear credulous foreign-language outlets, reflects a style of unusual media to overlook crucial background details, including whether the projects receive got the backing of official PRC regime agencies or are genuinely viable to implement. This style towards ‘threat inflation’—which has also affected coverage of everything from PRC submarine propulsion breakthroughs to Light Amplification by Stimulated Emission of Radiation weapons—reflects a lack of China literacy with media as well as strategic communities inwards countries concerned nigh the PRC, as well as agency that policymakers as well as analysts ask to practise fifty-fifty greater caution when relying on open-source media reporting for data nigh PRC engineering as well as evolution projects.
From Misinformation to False Peril: H5N1 Vicious Cycle
The bicycle of threat inflation surrounding the Red Flag River Project began with local media inwards the PRC. The project, directed yesteryear Wang Hua, professor at Tsinghua University as well as scientist at the Chinese Academy of Engineering, proposes to solve the work of H2O shortage inwards the PRC’s northwest yesteryear diverting H2O from the Yarlung Tsangpo (Brahmaputra), Salween, Mekong, Yangtze, Yalong as well as Dadu Rivers toward to a greater extent than arid land, thereby developing novel agricultural areas as well as boosting the PRC economy. Hype around the projection began to create with the launch of a promotional video for the projection on Nov 1, 2017, followed presently thereafter yesteryear seminars held yesteryear a grouping academics as well as technical experts associated with the projection inwards Nov 2017 as well as Jan 2018 [1]. The intelligence of the projection gained momentum on the Chinese-language network equally major PRC media outlets picked upwards on the story, commenting on the Red Flag River Project’s potential for eliminating drought inwards the northwest spell preserving the natural ecological surroundings of the part (Xinhua, Jan 18, China Times, June 4).
The “threat inflation” bicycle moved to its 2nd pace when English-language media picked upwards on the story, inwards most cases without going to the problem to verify whether the projection had whatever substantial PRC regime backing. One illustration was an Oct 2017 article yesteryear the South China Morning Post, which reported on the Red Flag River Project inwards the context of PRC plans to create an experimental H2O diversion tunnel inwards Southeast China, equally a showtime pace toward a longer tunnel running from Tibet to Xinjiang. While the article quotes researchers involved inwards the proposal, such equally Zhang Chuanqing of the Chinese Academy of Science, it is ambiguous equally to whether the PRC regime genuinely is involved inwards the projection inwards whatever way (SCMP, Oct 17, 2017). Although The Global Times, some other PRC-based English-language newspaper, responded to the floor ii weeks after with PRC unusual ministry building spokeswoman Hua Chunying’s denials that China was preparing for such a tunnel, the correction was spread far less widely than the initial floor (Global Times, Oct 31, 2017).
The Indian press’s reply to the floor demonstrated the potential geopolitical impact of such Sino-foreign “threat inflation”. Indian commentary tended to rely on the South China Morning Post floor equally the footing of their ain reporting, rather than attempting to verify or right the record. When the Red Flag River Project was showtime announced, i Indian journalist wrote, “China is working on an incredibly ambitious H2O diversion projection involving the Brahmaputra, i of India’s largest rivers, which may larn some other indicate of tension betwixt the ii Asian neighbours” (Quartz India, Oct 30, 2017). Even nearly a yr after the PRC Foreign Ministry’s denial, major Indian newspapers continued to run credulous stories, with i outlet commenting inwards an article nigh the Red Flag River Project that “India already feels threatened yesteryear China’s projects inwards the Tibetan plateau to cut down river flows into India. Diversion of the Brahmaputra is an catch China does non hash out inwards public, because it implies devastating India’s northeastern plains as well as Bangladesh, either with floods or reduced H2O flow” (Economic Times, July 13, 2018).
The Indian press’s handling of the projection also reflected the lastly pace inwards the threat inflation cycle: prominent foreign-language outlets’ failure to debunk or follow, fifty-fifty after farther investigation yesteryear specialists or Chinese-language media revealed the initial data to live erroneous. In the illustration of the Red Flag River Project, presently after the initial surge of publicity next its announcement, scientists as well as academics inwards the PRC took to the network to indicate out its physical impracticality, including its proffer for a “self-flowing H2O transfer” system, as well as its designers’ plans to create large tunnels inwards areas at high conduct chances for earthquakes as well as landslides. Some reports noted that fifty-fifty the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs as well as the Chinese Ministry of Water Resources denied having whatever connectedness to the Red Flag River Project (DW News, Apr 11). Other skeptics pointed out the questionable human relationship betwixt the Red Flag River projection as well as its financier as well as sole sponsor, a companionship called “Shanlin Finance” (Zhihu, Nov 24, 2017, Science Net, Feb 25, 2018).
As early on equally 2015, Shanlin—a so-called “peer-to-peer” finance company―ran into problem with the Shanghai metropolis government, which charged it with mistaken advertising as well as suspended its operations inwards Oct 2017 for violating network lending restrictions. In Apr 2018, the Shanghai Police flora Shanlin Finance to live responsible for luring lx billion yuan from investors inwards an online P2P network finance campaign, a regain which led to the arrest of viii companionship executives, including legal representative as well as sole shareholder Zhou Boyun, who would after live indicted (New Tang Dynasty, Apr 26). None of the English-language reporting on the projection reflected these subsequent developments, or critically examined the questionable nature of the project’s backer, despite the fact that concerns emerged nigh Shanlin Finance equally early on equally 2015.
Silent Subs as well as Laser Guns: Threat Inflation as well as PLA Technological Development
The Red Flag River Project is far from the exclusively recent illustration of threat inflation. Two other instances demonstrate the same trend: the PLA’s purported deployment of a portable Light Amplification by Stimulated Emission of Radiation rifle, as well as the alleged evolution of a “pump-jet” propulsion arrangement for PLAN nuclear submarines. In both instances, insufficient fact-checking as well as an over-reliance on misinformed intelligence sources resulted inwards an exaggerated motion-picture demo of PLA capabilities.
In July 2018, the South China Morning Post published a floor declaring that “China has developed a novel portable Light Amplification by Stimulated Emission of Radiation weapon that tin zap a target from nearly a kilometre away,” citing researchers as well as Light Amplification by Stimulated Emission of Radiation weapons scientists involved inwards its manufacturing. The article speculates nigh the weapon’s potential piece of work inwards covert armed services operations, linking it with complaints from U.S. forces inwards the Indian Ocean as well as South China Sea nigh Light Amplification by Stimulated Emission of Radiation attacks from PRC armed services bases as well as vessels (https://tv.sohu.com/v/dXMvMjYxMjY5NzQ2Lzk0NDQzNjA1LnNodG1s.html
[2] For a breakdown of the submarine rimdrive debate, see: https://plarealtalk.com/lost-in-translation-how-one-chinese-submarine-breakthrough-was-mistaken-for-another-5bfd07d58004
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