Leon Hall
The United States’ rail tape inwards post–World War II major conflicts has been less than stellar. In his 2016 article, “Why Can’t America Win its Wars,” Peter Mansoor points out that America has only 3 outright victories inwards its terminal viii conflicts. Mansoor is non alone; many scholars convey written most the recent failures of America to reach decisive victory. Attribution of these failures is widespread: misfortunate intelligence; an imbalance of ends, ways, together with means; policy-strategy mismatches; improper role of instruments of national power; deficient host-nation commitment; together with a lack of pop support, but to bring upward a few. Arguably, however, the most pregnant driver of American failure is the too-frequent commitment of armed forces forces without fully agreement the nature of the environment.
Joint Publication 3-0, Joint Operations—the foundational slice of doctrine governing the way the US armed forces executes its missions—states that the operational surround (OE) is a “composite of the conditions, circumstances, together with influences that impact the work of capabilities together with behavior on the decisions of the commander.” Key to agreement the OE is the articulation tidings grooming of the operational surround (JIPOE) process, which provides frameworks to assist analysts, who together with so brief senior leaders responsible for making decisions. But this procedure ultimately falls brusque inwards analyzing around of the intangibles that may prevarication exterior the OE every bit it is conceptualized yesteryear doctrine. Another framework used yesteryear strategic analysts—political, military, economic, social, information, together with infrastructure (PMESII) systems together with subsystems—serves every bit an analytical tool to reach a “holistic agreement of all relevant components inside the OE.” Even using both tools amongst i another—JIPOE together with PMESII—only partly fulfill the articulation forces commander’s withdraw for agreement earlier making strategic recommendations to policy makers most forcefulness deployments. To fully empathize the environment, commanders (with the assist of their analysts) must also empathize critical variables exterior the doctrinally defined operational environment.
In essence, at that topographic point is something beyond the military’s framing of the OE that is of vital importance—something that powerfulness endure called the “nature of the environment” (NOE, to money an acronym) together with refers to non only the OE, with which many strategic thinkers are familiar, but also the many intangibles associated with conflict that are oft overlooked or under-emphasized yesteryear strategic analysts. These intangibles include such things every bit political dynamics, competing agendas, together with relationships amid the people, military, together with government—the entities most oft associated with the Clausewitzian trinity of passion, chance, together with reason. These, too, should endure a formal part of strategic analysis.
Strategic theorist Harry R. Yarger puts forth a like Definition of the strategic surround inwards his 2006 monograph, Strategic Theory for the 21st Century: The Little Book on Big Strategy. He uses the US Army War College’s VUCA model—volatile, uncertain, complex, together with ambiguous—to highlight the challenging together with complicated nature of the strategic environment. These characteristics illustrate around of the difficulties of gaining an agreement of the strategic environment. While his Definition offers a fleck to a greater extent than specificity, Yarger clearly recognizes components beyond the way doctrine conceives of the OE, including internal variables that may impact the strategy together with success of the state. Analyzing both internal together with external intangibles, amongst traditional OE analysis, volition render strategic leaders a much to a greater extent than consummate agreement of the NOE.
Importantly, though, this strategic appraisal should endure conducted prior to committing forces, which volition assist senior policy together with determination makers meliorate articulate strategic objectives, which should align with the nation’s interests. Without this clear guidance (ends), the strategic concepts (ways) together with resources (means) tin give the sack perish disconnected, every bit they besides oft have. Additionally, piece no i tin give the sack predict the resultant of a given conflict, a meliorate agreement may influence leaders against committing armed forces forces if a victorious resultant does non appear favorable or the costs of achieving the objective outweigh the benefits.
Often, this latter scenario—the costs non beingness worth achieving the political objective—is the case, hence making the “value of the object” besides great. Sacrifices tin give the sack endure measured inwards many ways—national treasure, equipment, alliances, life, together with fifty-fifty time. While Americans empathize sacrifices must endure made to ensure the protection of liberties, the decisions of such sacrifices must non endure made blindly.
Understanding the NOE prior to committing forces is non a novel concept. Some of the greatest armed forces thinkers throughout history convey written most its importance. Carl Von Clausewitz, for example, stated, “No i starts a war—or, rather, no i inwards his senses ought to exercise so—without starting fourth dimension beingness clear inwards his hear what he intends to reach yesteryear that state of war together with how he intends to behavior it.” This passage clearly speaks to the importance of aligning ends (“what he intends to achieve”), ways (“how he intends to behavior it”), together with agency (the instruments of national power). Without a clear agreement of the NOE, strategic leaders boundary their powerfulness to know what they wishing to achieve, with what instruments they wishing to reach it, together with without doubt, how they holler back to exercise so.
Contemporary strategic thinkers together with elected leaders continuously reference the concepts of Chinese philosopher, Dominicus Tzu. One of the philosopher’s many axioms explains that the victorious warrior wins earlier committing forces, piece the defeated warrior commits forces together with and so seeks victory. This notion lone sums upward the premise of the withdraw to empathize the nature of the environment. Once a leader commits forces, it is oft besides slowly to shape an effective strategy. Formulating strategy must come upward earlier committing forces together with the most effective way to shape a coherent strategy is to fully empathize the NOE. That is non to say a leader cannot suit strategy i time forces are committed, but fifty-fifty when a strategic course of teaching alter is needed, a clearer agreement volition permit for a greater powerfulness to adjust.
There are many critics of classic theory but fifty-fifty the strongest detractor would endure hard pressed to scrap against the importance of agreement the NOE prior to committing forces. To exercise so is analogous to a startup entering an manufacture without starting fourth dimension writing a line of piece of work concern plan. The startup powerfulness succeed but the line of piece of work concern stands a much greater run a endangerment of success if manufacture analysis is conducted prior to launch. As Yarger contends, “the strategist must empathize the nature of the surround inwards guild to exert influence inside it.”
Strategic theorist Colin Gray, recognizes the value inwards classic theory but also explains that strategic leaders must ever try ways to improve upon classic theoretical principles. In an essay written inwards 2003, he notes that although Clausewitz provided a real useful tool for agreement war, strategic thinkers are non absolved from conducting their ain analysis together with must try ways to improve upon his together with others classic theories.
There are useful analytical tools that reside inwards both classic theory together with articulation doctrine, but strategic thinkers together with policy makers must continuously try out meliorate ways to examine together with empathize the strategic environment. Indeed, i would holler back that on this basis, strategic leaders would demand a meliorate agreement prior to committing forces. Recent history does non reverberate such a demand. Vietnam, Korea, together with Great Socialist People's Libyan Arab Jamahiriya are all conflicts inwards which the the States failed to reach its political objectives, or the outcomes were ambiguous. Republic of Iraq together with Transitional Islamic State of Afghanistan are ongoing together with only history volition create upward one's hear whether they are viewed every bit successful. What is non inwards inquiry is the strategic miscalculations of how long these conflicts would terminal together with the costs associated with them. Strategic leadership could convey mitigated these miscalculations yesteryear having a meliorate agreement of the nature of the environment.
With many to a greater extent than potential conflicts on the horizon, strategic leaders must exercise a meliorate chore of agreement the nature of the environment. Iran, North Korea, China, Russia, together with the enduring but evolving threat of fierce extremism (among others) all acquaint volatile situations that require comprehensive analysis for America leadership to shape a successful strategy. Each province of affairs poses unique challenges together with strategic leaders volition endure faced with making tough decisions. They are obligated to ensure the best analysis possible together with educate a clear agreement earlier committing forces.
Lt. Col. David “Leon” Hall is a strategic tidings officeholder inwards the US Army. He late served every bit the subdivision chair together with assistant professor for the Department of Defense Intelligence at the National Intelligence University. He currently serves every bit a National Security Affairs Fellow for the 2018–19 academic twelvemonth at the Hoover Institution.
The views expressed are those of the writer together with exercise non reverberate the official seat of the the States Military Academy, Department of the Army, Department of Defense, or whatever of the institutions with which the writer is associated.
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