by Steven Hansen
In past times posts I accept stated that the pundits expectations of a devastating merchandise nation of war was overblown. For October, at that topographic point were a tape set out of loaded body of body of water container imports that passed through the Ports of Los Angeles as well as Long Beach. The graph below shows the meaning increment important containers inward October.
Even export body of body of water container increment improved - as well as the 3 calendar month rolling averages for both imports as well as exports grew.
Note that the year-over-year increment of both imports as well as exports are significantly higher than GDP.
Acceleration Month-over-Month
Change from One Year Ago
Year to Date vs. Previous Year
Acceleration 3 Month Rolling Average
3 Month Rolling Average vs. Average One Year Ago
Imports
+15.6 %
+17.7 %
+4.5 %
-+6.1%
+5.3 %
Exports
+2.6 %
+8.9 %
+4.5 %
+2.2 %
+5.8 %
This information fix is based on the Ports of LA as well as Long Beach which describe organisation human relationship for much (approximately 40%) of the container displace into as well as out of the U.S. - as well as these 2 ports study their information significantly before than other USA ports. Most of the manufactured goods displace betwixt countries inward body of body of water containers (except larger rolling items such every bit automobiles). This pulse dot is an early on indicator of the wellness of the economy.
There is no analytical footing to claim that the "Trade War" is non impacting merchandise - but it is really hard to meet whatsoever affects of the "Trade War".
Economic Releases This Past Week
The next tabular array summarizes the to a greater extent than meaning economical releases this past times week. For to a greater extent than detailed analysis - please view our landing page which provides links to our consummate analyses.
Other Economic Release Summary For This Week
The CPI year-over-year inflation advanced 0.2 to 2.5%. Inside the data, gist inflation (less nutrient as well as energy) year-over-year increment slowed 0.1 to 2.1%. The large contributor to inflation inward Oct was energy.
October Retail Sales
Insignificant
The headlines showed an unexpected jump month-over-month. Let us say the argue for the month-over-month jump was the meaning downward revision of the previous month's data. Still, Retail Sales YoY increment is much improve than GDP's YoY increment showing the economic scheme is currently existence driven past times retail sales.
October Import as well as Export Prices
Slight
Year-over-year import prices as well as export prices grew to a greater extent than than expected. Import prices are upwardly 3.5 % year-over-year as well as export prices upwardly 3.1 % year-over-year..
September Business Inventories as well as Sales
None
Inventories stay elevated this month. Our primary monitoring tool - the 3 calendar month rolling averages for sales - declined but remains inward expansion. Overall describe organisation sales accept been improving since the depression dot inward 2015 - as well as the tendency over the terminal half dozen months shows improvement inward the charge per unit of measurement of growth.
October Industrial Production
Slight
The Federal Reserve said industrial production improved. Our analysis shows the rolling averages declined. Whatever is going on, the manufacturing component subdivision of industrial production is exclusively growing at 2.7 % YoY - lower than gross domestic product growth.
Surveys
Mixed
The NFIB Small Business Optimism showed continued well-nigh tape grade optimism. The report's authors dot to Trump era policies every bit the reason. Also released this calendar week was the Philly Fed, New York Fed, as well as Kansas City Fed's manufacturing surveys. The New York Fed's survey marginally improved, the Philly Fed's survey significantly declined, piece the Kansas City Fed's survey improved alongside fundamental categories mixed.
Weekly Rail Counts
Signs economic scheme is slowing
The rolling averages as well as the year-over-year increment continues to slow. There is a correlation betwixt runway increment as well as economical increment - as well as runway is proverb the economic scheme volition slow.
In summary, at that topographic point was fiddling this calendar week to dot whatsoever existent alter inward economical growth. The economically negative tidings seems to remainder the positive developments.
Our Economic Forecast for November:
The Econintersect Economic Index for November 2018 continues to demo the improvement cycle continues as well as remains good into territory associated alongside normal expansions. With the stock marketplace position correction, it is natural to assume that the economic scheme is degrading. And at that topographic point are several pundits throwing about forecasts of a recession. But our Econintersect Economic Index (EEI) moderately improved as well as however remains good into territory associated alongside normal expansions.
Our terminal forecast showed a meaning reject inward our economical index. This calendar month at that topographic point was a slight bounce. Still nosotros are seeing mixed tendency lines - which unremarkably happens when at that topographic point is an overall reversal inward trends. Our major worry is the rapid deceleration of increment inward runway carry information - a commons flag for a slowing economy.
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