By JAMES STAVRIDIS
Tom Clancyis back” experience to it.
I’ve been role of these exercises for decades, dating dorsum to the tiptop of the Cold War. The militaries on both sides direct keep these events alongside the utmost seriousness — planes ship actual alive ordnance, troops are dropped into icy waters to tempest beaches, ships burn downward alive missiles against maneuvering targets. As a commander, you lot sit down inwards a darkened command inwardness 24/7 watching blips on a radar concealment representing enemy moves — it becomes really slowly to autumn into the musical rhythm of war. The costs are high together with the risks are really real. And the chances for miscalculation past times 1 side or the other, resulting inwards an incident that provokes a existent escalation, is significant. Russian Federation is already reacting badly, harshly criticizing the events, together with insisting they volition retaliate both alongside to a greater extent than exercises together with newer weapons systems.
So why is NATO expending these resources together with taking these risks?
First, together with most obviously, these exercises are an chance for the NATO together with partner militaries to but practise the fine art of war. If nosotros do terminate upward inwards combat inwards Europe, our forces volition direct keep to live able to piece of occupation seamlessly together inwards demanding circumstances — to counter cyber attacks, high-tech weapons, internal geographic put together with the payoff that a single-nation enemy would hand from a unitary command structure. To overcome those obstacles volition require non entirely beast forcefulness but also well-trained together with coordinated units fighting effectively together. Practice makes if non perfect at to the lowest degree really good.
Second, the Alliance sees the state of war games every bit crucial to deter farther aggressive conduct from Russian Federation inwards the wake of the invasion of Ukraine, annexation of Crimea together with ongoing cyber attacks. As Admiral Foggo together with I sat overlooking the Bay of Naples inwards the run-up to the exercises, it was clear he saw these vast wargames every bit an appropriate answer to an aggressive together with resurgent Russian Federation. The Secretary General of NATO, one-time Norwegian Prime Minister Jens Stoltenberg, agrees. Both are quick to indicate out these exercises are defensive inwards nature, but — Admiral Foggo late said — “if Russian Federation challenges us, nosotros volition respond.” He is correct to live concerned well-nigh Russian activeness approximately the periphery of the Alliance, together with it is non difficult to take away heed the old ghosts of the Cold War rattling inwards the winds off the Baltic Sea.
Third, the exercises autumn on the heels of a far larger Russian state of war game (albeit on its eastern border), alongside over 300,000 troops — half dozen times larger than NATO’s electrical flow state of war game. Russian Federation has also been conducting a serial of offensively construction exercises approximately its periphery over the past times half dozen years. They direct keep late been operating warships together with aircraft really aggressively, ofttimes penetrating Alliance airspace together with confronting NATO warships at sea. All of this has rattled the NATO nations inwards the east, peculiarly the vulnerable Baltics, together with Trident Juncture is seen every bit a answer to Russian state of war machine posturing.
Finally, the ongoing militarization of the vital Kaliningrad enclave inwards N fundamental Europe is deeply worrisome to NATO. Perhaps the most strategic spell of territory inwards western Europe, Kaliningrad is a Russian Oblast (essentially a nation of the Russian Federation) sandwiched betwixt Poland together with Republic of Lithuania on the Baltic Sea. Russian Federation is improving airfields, constructing novel ammunition bunkers, edifice nuclear weapons facilities together with mostly preparing to pick out fifty-fifty to a greater extent than unsafe together with destabilizing surface-to-surface cruise together with ballistic missiles to the area. This is a violation of the Intermediate Nuclear Force Treaty, every bit Washington sees it, which has role of the argue why the States of America inwards furnish has threatened to describe out of that arms-control agreement. H5N1 novel arms race is well-nigh to unfold inwards Europe, much to the discomfort of our allies.
Taken together, these are audio reasons for NATO to (practice) going to war. But it is no one’s involvement to stumble backwards into some other full-blown Cold War. After Trident Juncture is done, NATO should direct keep a deep breath together with come upward up alongside a ameliorate strategy for dealing alongside Russian Federation — something other than but belongings huge, expensive state of war games. Such events are necessary, but non sufficient.
We take away a conception that includes pressuring Russian Federation to comply alongside the INF treaty earlier it’s likewise late, maintenance of economical sanctions levied afterwards the Ukraine invasion, a stronger counter-cyber capability for the Alliance, opened upward military-to-military hotlines to cut down the chances of a miscalculation together with a re-energized NATO-Russia Council to cut down tensions. All of this is frustrating together with requires strategic patience; but it is ameliorate than watching state of war games plow into a existent war. Having played the commander inwards many of these exercises, I tin give the axe assure you lot a existent conflict is entirely a flick of a switch away.
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