By Scott Stewart VP of Tactical Analysis, Stratfor
In contrast to conventional Western armed forces strategists, insurgent commanders seek to prolong battles to ultimately wearable downward stronger opponents. There are potent parallels betwixt what the Islamic State is currently experiencing in addition to the province of affairs it faced when it was a largely guerrilla motility inwards 2010. The Taliban mightiness brand overtures regarding negotiations, but they are unlikely to genuinely pursue talks because they believe they tin outlast the Americans inwards Afghanistan. On Aug. 12, hundreds of Nigerian soldiers mutinied at the aerodrome inwards the northeastern urban center of Maiduguri, occupying the tarmac, firing their weapons into the air in addition to disrupting flights. The soldiers were protesting orders that they were to live redeployed to the Lake Republic of Chad part to combat the Islamic State West African Province (ISWAP), a grouping formerly known every bit Boko Haram, which has been conducting a string of deadly attacks on Nigerian bases inwards the region. Military officials said the deployment would in conclusion less than year, the soldiers told Nigeria's Vanguard News, but the troops noted that they had already served a issue of years in addition to were existence ordered to the front end lines yet over again to create practice a grouping whose defeat had been proclaimed — somewhat prematurely — past times President Muhammadu Buhari non long afterwards the militants pledged allegiance to the Islamic State inwards March 2015.
The Big Picture
Political leaders the globe over remove hold frequently proclaimed victory over jihadist in addition to other insurgent organizations afterwards armed forces campaigns. But whether inwards Iraq, Nigeria or elsewhere, such declarations frequently evidence to live premature when the rebel groups render to prominence. One method of explaining such resurgences is the long state of war theory, inwards which rebel groups aim for victory through battles of attrition, rather than through rapid battlefield success.
The protestation inwards Nigeria took house during a Taliban offensive inwards Ghazni, Afghanistan. The militants managed to convey the urban center in addition to sack the law headquarters earlier retreating. According to the Long War Journal, the Taliban — a forcefulness that retreated from Transitional Islamic State of Afghanistan afterwards the States of America routed it on the battlefield inwards the wake of an invasion inwards 2001 — immediately controls 47 of Afghanistan's 398 districts patch contesting 198 more.
Meanwhile, on Aug. 15, Pentagon spokesman U.S. Navy Cmdr. Sean Robertson said inwards a tidings briefing that "[the Islamic State] in all probability is soundless to a greater extent than capable than al-Qaida inwards Republic of Iraq at its peak inwards 2006-2007." This disceptation was strike given that the grouping has lost the volume of the territory it controlled when it declared itself the Islamic State inwards June 2014 in addition to that it has been heavily pummeled past times coalition airstrikes in addition to solid soil operations past times local allies for nearly iv consecutive years.
What ties these 3 vignettes together is that inwards each, a seemingly defeated forcefulness has continued to create practice afterwards suffering considerable losses on the battlefield in addition to ceding most, if non all, of its one-time territory. But far from compelling such groups to abandon the fight, the defeats correspond alone temporary reverses, for all are pursuing a long state of war strategy inwards which setbacks tin ultimately live overcome alongside patience, persistence in addition to fortitude.
Taking a Long View of War
Most conventional Western armed forces doctrine is built upon concepts of modern warfare that were articulated past times theorists such every bit Carl von Clausewitz, Antoine-Henri Jomini in addition to Napoleon Bonaparte. The basic concept behind the rapid state of war doctrine is to create in addition to engage the enemy inwards decisive battles that destroy its powerfulness to wage state of war in addition to sap its volition to locomote along fighting. Years of battle alongside guerrillas inwards Transitional Islamic State of Afghanistan in addition to Republic of Iraq mightiness remove hold forced the U.S. armed forces to adopt a novel counterinsurgency manual inwards 2006, but it has been hard for American forces to intermission complimentary of the mindset outlined past times von Clausewitz in addition to the like. Not all of the responsibleness for this attachment to tradition rests alongside the military, however, every bit the country's politicians in addition to public don't typically remove hold much patience or long attending spans. For evidence, await no farther than President George W. Bush's May 2003 "Mission Accomplished" oral communication or President Barack Obama's ostensible withdrawal from Iraq.
This rapid state of war approach stands inwards stark contrast to the basic doctrine of insurgent warfare every bit outlined past times guerrilla warfare strategists such every bit Mao Zedong, Che Guevara, Vo Nguyen Giap and, to a greater extent than recently, Abu Bakr Naji — or fifty-fifty Osama bin Laden. Because the overriding imperative of the guerrilla fighter is to survive, insurgent theory calls for attacks when the battlefield province of affairs is favorable in addition to retreat when it is not. It is improve to alive to create practice roughly other twenty-four hours than to stand upwardly in addition to fight, thereby opening oneself to devastation past times a superior force.
While Western commanders seek rapid in addition to decisive victories, insurgent commanders aim to prolong the fighting in addition to create a grinding state of war of attrition that volition wearable downward stronger forces patch allowing the militants to construct upwardly their strength.
While Western commanders seek rapid in addition to decisive victories, insurgent commanders aim to prolong the fighting in addition to create a grinding state of war of attrition that volition wearable downward stronger enemy forces patch allowing the militants to construct upwardly their strength. If the enemy is a unusual invader, insurgent commanders seek to assail the unusual forces alongside persistence in addition to savagery inwards the hopes that such activity volition compel the occupier to withdraw from the conflict i time the toll inwards blood in addition to materiel outweighs its involvement inwards the country. The withdrawal of the unusual forcefulness volition thus allow insurgent commanders to finally accomplish a decisive victory over local foes. Naturally, if at that spot is no unusual invading force, rebel leaders merely aim to wearable downward their domestic enemies until they tin overpower them.
For guerrilla commanders, controlling the human terrain is to a greater extent than of import than controlling the physical terrain, pregnant insurgent leaders volition merchandise territory for fourth dimension to strengthen their forces in addition to eventually recapture the area. This is peculiarly truthful when at that spot is an expanse of refuge inwards hostile terrain or a neighboring country that insurgents tin retreat to thus they tin train, remainder in addition to regroup.
Mao in addition to Giap set such tactics to skilful job during their successful insurgent wars, in addition to jihadist groups remove hold also employed such strategies repeatedly since 2001. The Taliban, the nub al Qaeda group, al Shabaab, al Qaeda inwards the Arabian Peninsula, ISWAP in addition to the Islamic State inwards Iraq (now merely the Islamic State) remove hold all overcome important battlefield losses yet survived to locomote along the fight.
Perhaps the best joint of the jihadist concept of long state of war theory appears inwards Naji's The Management of Savagery, which was published inwards 2004. The theorist refers to the long state of war every bit "the state of war of patience" in addition to discusses insurgent campaigns that include the Prophet Mohammed's early on campaigns alongside his followers, every bit good every bit to a greater extent than contemporary examples such every bit the Afghan state of war against the Russians in addition to jihadist struggles inwards Arab Republic of Egypt in addition to Algeria.
In discussing the long war, Naji makes this observation nigh Western troops, whom he refers to every bit the "forces of Taghut" (believers inwards faux gods or idols): "Due to the nature of the psyche of the Taghuts in addition to the psyche of their troops, they are non able to remain nether pressure level in addition to intimidation for a long menses of time." Naji goes on to assert that the Western commander has 2 primary desires: "to shorten the duration of the battle every bit much every bit possible" in addition to "to maintain his troops from bloodshed every bit much every bit possible because he knows that this volition scare his troops in addition to it volition live i of the factors inwards prolonging the battle." Given this view, Naji's strategy is unsurprising. "Our invention ... is to prolong the menses of the battle past times opposing the goals of the enemy in addition to surprising him alongside strong, painful strikes."
Managing Savagery inwards Practice
The Management of Savagery has been widely read past times members of al Qaeda in addition to the Islamic State — to the extent that roughly remove hold suggested that the latter's leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, in addition to followers used the function every bit a pattern to flora their group. Indeed, many of Naji's concepts remove hold appeared inwards Islamic State propaganda, fifty-fifty if the organisation does non bring upwardly him past times name.
In his work, Naji envisioned 3 stages inwards the creation of Islamic emirates. The commencement stage involves "the powerfulness of vexation in addition to exhaustion," inwards which jihadists strive to comport terrorist attacks in addition to engage inwards guerrilla warfare operations to debilitate the province in addition to create a vacuum of power. The instant stage is "the direction of savagery." While roughly remove hold understood this to entail the job of brutality to terrorize the populace, the phrase really refers to the necessity of establishing mechanisms to come across people's needs inwards the midst of chaos. As purpose of this instant phase, jihadist groups aim to supply the population alongside security, nutrient in addition to other basic services, flora a Sharia courtroom system, degree an intelligence service, develop institutions to educate people inwards the proper agreement of Islam in addition to develop them to fight. Jihadist groups, including the Islamic State, remove hold expended non bad effort on such administrative tasks inwards Syrian Arab Republic in addition to Iraq, every bit remove hold similar organizations inwards war-torn places such every bit Libya, northern Mali, Yemen, Transitional Islamic State of Afghanistan in addition to Somalia. In the concluding phase, jihadist groups seek to develop the powerfulness to really flora a province — something al-Baghdadi believed he had accomplished inwards June 2014.
Because the Islamic State nub inwards Republic of Iraq in addition to Syrian Arab Republic has immediately lost most of the areas it i time ruled or managed, the grouping honour itself dorsum at stage i — but that surely does non hateful that it is a completely defeated force.
Because the Islamic State nub inwards Republic of Iraq in addition to Syrian Arab Republic has immediately lost most of the areas it i time ruled or managed, the grouping finds itself dorsum at stage i — but that surely does non hateful that it is a completely defeated force. As I've previously written, there are potent parallels betwixt what the Islamic State is experiencing today in addition to what it faced inwards 2010. The grouping is endeavoring to "vex in addition to exhaust" its foes inwards Republic of Iraq in addition to Syrian Arab Republic through terrorist attacks in addition to insurgent operations, in addition to it could i time over again regain its strength. After all, the group's slogan is "baqiya wa tatamaddad" (remain in addition to expand); the Islamic State does remain in addition to it is clearly seeking to expand i time more.
Likewise inwards Nigeria, the al-Barnawi faction of ISWAP appears to live growing stronger in addition to to a greater extent than capable every bit evidenced past times the successful attacks it has launched inwards recent weeks against armed forces bases. The grouping volition locomote along to create practice its state of war of attrition in addition to — if permitted to grow inwards strength — it volition create practice to seize in addition to concur territory in addition to populations.
Far to the east, the Taliban remove hold also grown significantly stronger, to the extent that they immediately command or competitor a important percentage of Afghanistan. While they brand overtures nigh negotiating an terminate to the conflict, they know that afterwards nearly 17 years of war, the Americans are weary from the create practice in addition to wishing to leave. Accordingly, they are unlikely to convey whatsoever political small town that is non heavily weighted inwards their favor. Moreover, because of their staying power, countries such every bit Iran, PRC in addition to Russian Federation are attempting to forge closer ties alongside the Taliban. Reflected every bit it is past times Taliban's perseverance in addition to willingness to sustain casualties inwards lodge to bloody their unusual in addition to domestic enemies, the group's long state of war gambit suggests that the organisation volition remain a powerful forcefulness inwards Afghanistan's hereafter — every bit volition other jihadist groups pursuing similar strategies inwards other parts of the world.
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