By: Pavel Felgenhauer
It has top increasingly mutual to proclaim the acquaint standoff betwixt Russian Federation in addition to the West equally a “new mutual frigidity war,” in addition to 1 peradventure worse in addition to potentially to a greater extent than unsafe than the starting fourth dimension because of a lack of agreed rules of play or crisis management. But until now, 1 of import characteristic seemed to survive lacking—a basic ideological conflict. This had been the axis of the previous confrontation: gratis marketplace economic scheme in addition to republic versus stiff Marxist/Leninist ideology in addition to totalitarian rule.
In its early on stages, the acquaint Russian-Western confrontation was even in addition to so seen inwards Moscow equally a classical 19th century–style struggle for territory, resources in addition to spheres of influence, based on egoistic national in addition to regal rivalries betwixt dandy powers that ideologically attain non much differ. Some 5 years ago, inwards Feb 2013, the principal of the Russian General Staff, Army General Valery Gerasimov, inwards a policy oral communication at a conference inwards the capital, presented what seemed to survive the official strategic Russian global threat assessment: “In the current until 2030, the flat of existing in addition to potential military machine threats may grow substantially. Leading the world powers volition survive fighting to command natural liberate energy resources, markets in addition to ‘Lebensraum’ [‘living space’—a Nazi German linguistic communication concept justifying its expansionist aims inwards the East], actively using military machine agency to scope national goals” (RIA Novosti, Feb 14, 2013).
The General Staff of the Armed Forces traditionally dominates strategic planning in addition to threat assessment inwards Moscow, using information provided past times the military’s dedicated intelligence service, the GRU, which is an integral business office (main directorate) of the General Staff. Based on this assessment of impending military machine aggression past times exterior powers led past times the United States, bent on seizing Russian territory, “Lebensraum” in addition to natural resources (primarily oil in addition to natural gas), Moscow launched a massive in addition to costly military machine modernization in addition to rearmament program, increasing Russian defense forcefulness in addition to national security spending to 5–6 pct of gross domestic product (see EDM, Oct 26, 2017).
This threat assessment turned out to survive false: Instead of beingness a massive oil importer, the US is right away on rails to top the world’s seat out 1 oil producer in addition to a cyberspace exporter. Russian Federation spent upwards to a trillion of dollars on an array of novel fancy weapons to deter a Western pick out handgrip of of Russian oil fields in addition to so it could maintain its population supplied during a global liberate energy crunch, which right away seems an outdated proposition. The so-called “party of war” inwards Moscow has hence come upwards up amongst some other narrative to justify its militaristic demands: The the world is changing, a novel the world social club is emerging, the West’s influence in addition to ability is diminishing, but the US rejects the novel reality in addition to is determined to maintain its historically doomed “global leadership” at all costs, “including military machine means.” According to Gerasimov, who, on March 24, 2018, gave some other major oral communication at a conference inwards Moscow (see EDM, Apr 3), US attempts to handgrip on to its shrinking “global leadership” bring brought it into a “total” confrontation amongst Russia. This clash is beingness fought past times nonmilitary agency but may transform into straight combat at whatever moment. To maintain the US in addition to its allies at bay, the military machine buildup inwards Russian Federation in addition to training for state of war (“hybrid,” cyber, information, local, regional in addition to global/nuclear) must top on at amount measuring (Militarynews.ru, March 24).
Gerasimov is non a solitary voice. Sergei Naryshkin, the manager of Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (Sluzhba Vneshney Razvedki— SVR), known inwards Soviet times equally the First Main Directorate (PGU) of the KGB, defendant the West in addition to the US of beingness unable “to appear the truth in addition to reconcile themselves amongst their inevitable downgrading.” Speaking, on Apr 4, at the 7th annual Moscow International Security Conference (MCIS-2018), organized past times the defense forcefulness ministry, Naryshkin asserted the West in addition to the US are fighting the novel emerging the world social club in addition to resorting to “colonialist in addition to imperialist” practices of domination, “while masquerading their dictate in addition to blackmail amongst a exhibit of Euro-Atlantic in addition to international solidarity.” Russian Federation is seen past times the West equally “the main locomotive of alter inwards the world,” according to the SVR head, in addition to is beingness singled out for ready on past times “retrograde in addition to reactionary forces.” The US obsession amongst the “nonexistent Russian threat” has produced a novel mutual frigidity war, Naryshkin insisted (YouTube, Apr 4).
So this “new mutual frigidity war” seems to in conclusion bring acquired a sold ideological backing, which appears to mimic the previous one: An existential larn by betwixt the united “retrograde” forces of evil, led past times the US, in addition to Russia—the shining star of the emerging novel the world order—supported past times Communist People's Republic of China in addition to Iran. Both the Iranian in addition to Chinese defense forcefulness ministers spoke at MCIS-2018. The newly appointed Chinese National Defense Minister Wei Fenghe met amongst his Russian counterpart, Segei Shoigu, earlier the conference in addition to was quoted equally proverb he came to Moscow to attended MCIS-2018 “to back upwards Russian Federation inwards the acquaint situation” in addition to “send a signal to the US close the closed link betwixt the Russian in addition to Chinese militaries” (Militarynews.ru, Apr 3).
Speaking at MCIS-2018, Shoigu defendant the U.S. of failing to counter Islamic State terrorists inwards the Middle East in addition to Transitional Islamic State of Afghanistan in addition to of deploying its forces exclusively to extend its regional influence, peculiarly inwards Central Asia. Shoigu likewise defendant the US in addition to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) of deploying upwards to 10,000 combat troops amongst heavy offensive weapons on Russia’s European boarders nether the pretext of a “nonexistent Russian threat.” Shoigu reproached NATO for modernizing in addition to edifice upwards military machine infrastructure on the boarders of Russian Federation piece increasing the seat out in addition to magnitude of military machine exercises inwards the portion in addition to increasing naval activities inwards the Baltic in addition to Black Seas. The seat out of reconnaissance flights past times Western aircraft some Russian borders bring increased many fold, in addition to Russian jets bring been scrambled to intercept. “The possibility of military machine incidents in addition to provocations has increased dramatically,” Shoigu proclaimed, “Our military’s fighting potential volition survive maintained to guarantee the security of Russian Federation in addition to its allies.” Meanwhile, “NATO refuses to verbalize to us,” he complained (Mil.ru, Apr 4). Indeed, Western defense forcefulness officials bring ignored MCIS-2018.
On March 1, during his annual address to the parliament, President Vladimir Putin unveiled an array of nuclear superweapons, claiming Russian Federation has secretly overcome the mighty US past times maneuvering itself into a dominant military machine seat (see EDM, March 1, 8). According to Shoigu, next Putin’s address the Russian military machine has been rewriting the 2018–2027 rearmament computer programme in addition to “military plans until 2020,” preparing to “promptly acquaint additional requests” to intensify preparations inwards accordance amongst the president’s directives (Militarynews.ru, Apr 3). The novel mutual frigidity state of war seems to survive raking inwards a state of war dividend—which is what they do.
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