LEVI MAXEY
Bottom Line: The Kremlin employs an array of oft overlapping together with competitive safety together with intelligence services to create multiple sources of intelligence, encourage risk-taking together with maintain a wary midpoint on each other. This has enabled Russian President Vladimir Putin to consolidate powerfulness past times playing agencies off of each other to avoid uninvited powerfulness grabs. But these redundancies tin give the sack also create inefficiencies that Russian Federation can’t afford equally its economic scheme continues to falter. Background: The Soviet Union primarily relied on ii intelligence services. The Committee for State Security (KGB) was tasked with unusual political together with economical espionage, covert activeness – known equally active measures – together with domestic security, spell the Main Intelligence Director (GRU) nether the General Staff is responsible for armed services intelligence. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russian Federation broke the KGB largely into 4 services – the Federal Security Service (FSB), Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), Federal Protection Service (FSO), together with the Interior Ministry (MVD) – spell cutting the GRU’s workforce significantly.
The most influential agency remains the FSB, whose remit includes everything from domestic safety to external activities such equally unusual collection, cyber operations, criminal tillage together with active measures such equally data operations together with fifty-fifty assassination. For example, next the Nov 2006 assassination of Russian defector together with onetime FSB officer, Alexander Litvinenko, inward London, a British populace enquiry concluded inward Jan 2016 that the performance was the move of the FSB, together with probable approved straight past times Putin. As a onetime KGB officeholder together with after FSB director, Putin largely looks to the service equally his most trusted arm both at habitation together with abroad.
Other internally-focused Russian safety services include the Federal Protection Services (FSO) together with Interior Ministry (MVD). FSO, which resembles aspects of the U.S. Secret Service, is primarily responsible for the protection of authorities figures together with facilities, equally good equally monitoring the ease of the Russian intelligence services for misconduct. The MVD resembles the FBI, focusing on constabulary enforcement against organized offense together with counterterrorism. Putin also announced a novel National Guard inward Apr 2016, which is probable intended equally a praetorian guard to clampdown on dissent, but could eventually seek to eat other constabulary enforcement entities.
External intelligence collection together with activeness is theoretically nether the domain of the SVR together with GRU, who both behavior cyber espionage together with maintain networks of human intelligence officers nether “legal” diplomatic concealment within of unusual ministry building embassies approximately the globe – such equally armed services or cultural attachés – together with covert officers, or “illegals,” posing equally students, concern persons, journalists together with other professions. In June 2010, the FBI apprehended a spy-ring of 10 SVR “illegals” operating inward the United States. The SVR officers were exchanged a calendar month after for a number of Russian prisoners, including Sergei Skripal, a onetime GRU officeholder defendant of working for British intelligence who was poisoned inward March 2018 amongst his immature lady past times a nervus agent developed past times Russia.
While the SVR largely focuses on developing long-term networks of deep-cover operatives abroad, the GRU’s aggressive together with risk-taking civilization sets it upwards for tactical intelligence collection together with operations. It includes cyber espionage together with attack, battlefield reconnaissance together with metro operations using its Spetsnaz, or special forces. GRU has sharpened its teeth past times operating inward unstable regions, cultivating proxies ranging from criminal arms dealers such equally Victor Bout, to mafia bosses, militias, together with mercenaries inward Chechnya, Georgia, Ukraine together with elsewhere.
Daniel Hoffman, onetime Chief of Station, CIA
“The i thing that didn’t modify when the Soviet Union collapsed was that the SVR, FSB together with the GRU continued to mountain high-value operations against the U.S.A. together with the ease of their enemies. The ease of the Soviet Union collapsed, they did not. Former KGB together with Director FSB Putin has purposely directed these intelligence services to mountain increasingly aggressive social networking media, cyber together with influence attacks on hand of their traditional espionage.”
Mark Kelton, onetime deputy manager for counterintelligence, CIA National Clandestine Service
“The Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) is the largest together with most influential Russian service. The successor to the Second Chief Directorate of the KGB, it is responsible for internal safety together with counterintelligence. It also is principally responsible for intelligence activities inward the onetime Soviet Union. The Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) is the successor to the First Chief Directorate of the KGB together with is responsible for intelligence collection together with operations abroad. The Russian Military Intelligence Service (GRU) has responsibleness for armed services intelligence collection, but also undertakes some operations that overlap with those of the other services.”
John Sipher, onetime member, CIA Senior Intelligence Service
“The Russian intelligence services receive got distinct but overlapping roles, together with are both competitive with each other, together with oft distrust the other services. They are all aggressive inward their ain ways, together with they all engage inward covert, active measures to include efforts related to propaganda, subversion, disinformation, deception operations, cyber-attacks, forgeries together with fifty-fifty assassination. For example, it is non clear which organisation was at the forefront of the recent exertion to murder onetime GRU officeholder Sergei Skripal inward England.”
Issue: The organizational construction of Russian intelligence services mightiness resemble that of the West – dividing upwards responsibilities amongst multiple services – but the prevailing civilization together with authoritarian command over these services creates infighting for prestige together with favor with Putin together with his closest allies inward the Kremlin’s Security Council together with Presidential Administration. This, coupled with Russia’s endemic corruption, creates an intelligence bicycle that confirms Putin’s worldview rather than presenting mutual frigidness facts together with maybe unwelcome truths, together with prioritizes short-term results that tin give the sack hold upwards bartered for insider concern opportunities.
John Sipher, onetime member, CIA Senior Intelligence Service
“The contest together with potential friction betwixt the services operates on a distich different levels. Like inward other countries, the leaders of the organisation are component of a constant political game/battle to hold upwards relevant to the Kremlin together with delight President Putin. They each demand to compete for attending together with avoid embarrassment. Likewise, officers inward the lower levels of the organisation attempt to accomplish their goals together with resent interference or complication from the other agencies. Whereas these types of political together with bureaucratic battles receive got house everywhere, inward Russia, at that topographic point is an additional overlay of corruption. The to a greater extent than senior yous are inward Russia, the improve chance to steal. At the same time, everyone knows that everyone else is corrupt together with it is beneficial to concur data on your rivals that could maybe hold upwards used against him. This adds a layer of complication that makes it really difficult for westerners to fully sympathise the powerfulness together with personal dynamic of intelligence together with safety leaders inward Moscow.”
Steve Hall, onetime member, CIA Senior Intelligence Service
“Just similar the oligarchs, these intelligence services are competing for Putin’s attending because they know that improves their ain resources together with capabilities and, importantly, their private profits or portion of the riches. Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 lilliputian less of what are the bureaucratic guidelines together with to a greater extent than of what is the culture? If the model is i that yous receive got i key autocrat – Putin – who is tracking the country’s way forward, together with he is non getting what he needs inward terms of intelligence collection or inward terms of implementation of things he wants done, such equally active measures, together with then he’ll simply supersede a master copy or rely on someone else or switch gears to some other organization.”
Mark Kelton, onetime deputy manager for counterintelligence, CIA National Clandestine Service
“The Russian services receive got a history of competition, some of it driven past times institutional rivalry, wherein the Soviet or Russian leaderships receive got played i service off against another, together with past times the dictates of compartmentation wherein different services mightiness target or fifty-fifty run the same agents. For example, during the Alger Hiss/Whittaker Chambers together with Robert Hanssen cases, the GRU together with NKVD/KGB/SVR worked with the same people, unbeknownst to each other.”
Corruption remains endemic within the Russian government, together with the additional flat of secrecy together with command afforded to the intelligence services makes them specially susceptible. Russian intelligence officers, equally a thing of mutual practice, engage with members of criminal underworld, oft blending money, offense together with political powerfulness inward Russian Federation together with abroad. As instruments of the state, criminal proxies supply global reach, plausible deniability during active measures together with expertise together with resources exterior of official channels.
In March 2017, for example, the U.S. Department of Justice revealed indictments for ii FSB officers amongst iii cybercriminals for their Jan 2014 breach of Yahoo, gaining access to over 500 1000000 accounts. Estonia’s internal safety service, KAPO, has consistently observedFSB agents beingness recruited inward criminal smuggling rings that cross the borders into Russia, where their crimes are used equally leverage for their cooperation.
The GRU’s plow to political intelligence together with operations, despite its armed services background, is indictive of its overlapping with FSB together with SVR. For example, both the GRU together with FSB were simultaneously on the networks of the Democratic National Committee inward the fountain of 2016, but it was the GRU that inward plow “weaponized” the stolen emails inward the flat of Guccifer 2.0 together with DCLeaks equally component of the Kremlin’s political influence operation. This confluence of roles betwixt the GRU together with SVR/FSB was also apparent inward 2014 after a GRU officeholder was kicked out of French Republic for actively seeking to find salacious cloth on the personal life of then-French President Francois Hollande, to occupation equally Kompromat, or compromising cloth – a blackmail tactic common amongst Russian intelligence services.
Competition betwixt overlapping Russian intelligence services tin give the sack hold upwards a strength. As a May 2016 study from the European Council on Foreign Relations points out, agencies are forced to hold upwards aggressive, innovative together with accomplish results. There also is a flat of redundancy with multiple streams of intelligence whispering into Putin’s ear. But at that topographic point are disadvantages equally well. The demand for immediate together with tangible results earlier other services oft comes at the terms of with the integrity of the analytic procedure together with hampers coordination together with burden sharing betwixt services.
“The Russians are masters at intelligence together with covert games. However, they never developed the corresponding capacity to analyze together with sympathise intelligence. They were likewise willing to believe conspiracy theories, together with at that topographic point was intense pressure level to tell the leadership what it wanted to listen rather than the unvarnished truth. Putin’s strong beliefs, resentment toward the west, corruption together with powerfulness to wound those who threaten him propose that it unlikely that the intelligence services supply unbiased information, but instead play to his preconceived views.”
Mark Kelton, onetime deputy manager for counterintelligence, CIA National Clandestine Service
“The intelligence services of Russian Federation do non be to inform policy inward the feel that Western services do, inward providing evaluated, all-source analytic judgments on issues of import. They receive got no capacity to behavior such analysis. The data they supply to the Russian leadership is much to a greater extent than raw inward flat than is the instance inward the West.”
“The closer yous are to powerfulness inward Russia, the to a greater extent than able yous are to brand coin or larn things done. So the thought of dominion of constabulary together with who are criminals together with who are non is really blurred together with really Byzantine inward Russia. I’m non certain that there’s that large of a distinction betwixt organized offense together with the intelligence together with constabulary enforcement services inward Russia.”
Response: While NATO was kickoff conceived equally a collective defence organisation against the threat of Soviet armed services aggressiveness, Russia’s modern plow toward “hybrid warfare” cannot hold upwards countered past times only conventional armed services means. Of detail concern is burden-sharing amongst NATO fellow member states toward countering Russian active measures, such equally data operations together with cyber intrusions, including past times targeting the criminal proxies together with funding streams that facilitate them.
The U.S. together with other NATO members could also covertly seek to insert misinformation, conspiracy together with dubiety inward Russia’s intelligence cycles, playing off their want to delight Putin’s worldview. Much similar Russian Federation seeks to exacerbate societal divisions inward the west, NATO could seek to widen the chasms betwixt Russian intelligence services, playing them off of each other together with draining their express resources.
“If nosotros are non talking virtually preparing for a conventional Russian attack, cyber is arguably the most of import thing that NATO needs to hold upwards focused on. It’s also an expanse where NATO tin give the sack pretty easily coordinate with each other and, indeed, I recall it’s been doing thus inward terms of sharing of data on that form of threat. Counterintelligence is a lot harder because it gets into conducting mole hunts together with trying to discover out where yous are penetrated equally an organisation – whether it’s NATO, CIA or DIA. That is a much harder together with to a greater extent than sensitive thing to do. But the cyber materials has actually got to hold upwards out at that topographic point inward front. It is unopen to beingness number i inward my book.”
“This is an intelligence challenge. We demand to collect the intelligence on their plans together with intentions. That way penetrating their intelligence services thus that nosotros tin give the sack rails what they are doing together with and then prevent, preempt, together with counter their espionage against us. One goodness representative was the 2010 arrest of the SVR ‘illegals.’ As far equally our resources, nosotros are tracking a lot of different province together with non-state thespian threats, such equally terrorists, together with criminals, the Chinese together with a host of others. The query for the intelligence community is whether they receive got plenty resources to rails Russian targets. We unopen downwards consulates inward San Francisco together with Seattle, which volition bring down Russia’s footprint, but at that topographic point are ongoing resources allotment challenges.”
Looking Ahead: In September 2016, Russian media reported the Kremlin was planning a major reorganization of Russia’s safety together with intelligence services. The outlined innovation included creating a monolith agency similar to the KGB, called the Ministry of State Security (MGB), past times bringing the Federal Protection Service (FSO) together with SVR nether the leadership of the FSB. However, at that topographic point has been lilliputian populace progress towards reorganization.
Mark Kelton, onetime deputy manager for counterintelligence, CIA National Clandestine Service
“There has been verbalize of reestablishing a unitary service akin to the KGB, which would include both the FSB together with SVR. It remains to hold upwards seen whether Putin goes inward that direction, or sees to a greater extent than value inward maintaining both equally separate, competitive, services he tin give the sack play off against each other bureaucratically. In whatever case, the FSB volition seek to expand its unusual operations at the expense of the SVR inward particular.”
A consolidation of intelligence agencies seemingly kickoff began inward March 2003 with the dissolution of Russia’s onetime signals intelligence agency, the Federal Agency of Government Communications together with Information (FAGCI), similar to the NSA. The roles of FAGCI were together with then melded into the FSB, SVR together with GRU. While the continuation of such a consolidation would sure take some of the electrical current system’s inefficiencies, Putin has actively denied the FSB its ambitious plans towards empire-building. This could inward component hold upwards to maintain those approximately him weak plenty to command through internal competition, but also to maintain multiple sources of independent intelligence.
John Sipher, onetime member, CIA Senior Intelligence Service
“It remains to hold upwards seen who volition accomplish prominence with Putin. In the meantime, they volition compete with each other together with force the boundaries of their authorities. Putin wishes to maintain the diverse barons off-balance together with permit him to decide who has powerfulness together with influence together with supply the powerfulness to force whatever of them downwards if they appear to larn likewise powerful. It is probable an ugly together with complex game of personal powerfulness that nosotros volition never fully comprehend.”
Steve Hall, onetime member, CIA Senior Intelligence Service
“There is simply a lot of behind-the-scenes within puddle that is happening. Some of it in all likelihood really personality-based, some of it really business-based, inward terms of what oligarch has likewise much power, what intelligence organisation is the most successful, together with does that together with then stand upwards for a potential threat to Putin? So at that topographic point are a lot of balancing acts going on across all these different sectors that nosotros in all likelihood know really lilliputian virtually inward the West.
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