by Antonia Ward
With the collapse of ISIS in addition to loss of the bulk of its territory inwards Syrian Arab Republic in addition to Republic of Iraq past times the terminate of 2017, the the world was relieved at the intelligence of the “end” of the terrorist-cum-insurgent group. This reply paralleled a different, but non altogether dissimilar, celebration next the expiry of Osama Bin Laden inwards 2011. By 2012, many stated that al-Qaeda's mightiness in addition to influence had declined due to the loss of its charismatic in addition to skilled leader. However, every bit the instance of al-Qaeda shows, patch terrorist groups may endure periods of refuse they are extremely resilient in addition to adaptable. It is unsafe for the West to underestimate them; almost terrorist groups sense resurgence. Western governments' primary impediment to agreement al-Qaeda's resurgent mightiness is their distraction alongside the almost recent development inwards the global jihadist movement, ISIS. Their focus is unsurprising; despite al-Qaeda's involvement inwards Syrian Arab Republic inwards the course of teaching of its faction Jabhat al-Nusra, ISIS successfully captured in addition to held 34,000 foursquare miles of territory inwards Syrian Arab Republic in addition to Republic of Iraq in addition to implemented a pseudo-government construction inwards the towns in addition to cities it controlled. No terrorist grouping had always achieved this, despite al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri's avowed goal of creating a caliphate past times “liberating all lands” from trouble past times both non-Muslims in addition to apostate rulers. Moreover, ISIS was able to attract in addition to recruit a large conglomerate of unusual fighters from across the world, alongside an estimated 40,000 individuals joining the terrorist grouping from 110 countries.
As attending has shifted to ISIS, al-Qaeda has been quietly soundless effectively resurging and, at the fourth dimension of writing, has factions across the world, according to the operate of several academics in addition to terrorism experts, specially Bruce Hoffman. The organisation possesses formal affiliates run past times al-Qaeda commanders inwards Syria, Russia, Libya, Egypt, the Maghreb in addition to Sahel, Yemen, Somalia, Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, Myanmar, in addition to Indonesia. While harboring the global, ambitious destination of expelling U.S. in addition to apostate forces from Muslim countries, the pressure level of U.S. counterterrorism measures forced al-Qaeda to focus on inspiring, rather than actively coordinating attacks abroad. Since 2011, the collapse of authoritarian regimes inwards the Middle East has created a mightiness vacuum that many terrorist groups accept capitalized on, including al-Qaeda in addition to ISIS. Al-Qaeda exploited civic conflict in addition to dissatisfaction inwards the months in addition to years next the Arab Spring to constitute factions across the region, including Jabhat al-Nusra inwards Syria.
However, the instance of al-Qaeda demonstrates that nosotros accept been peradventure every bit good complacent inwards assuming the terminate of terrorist groups, specially when key leaders or assets are destroyed. The presence of key commanders spread across a lay out of regions demonstrates that fifty-fifty nether immense pressure level al-Qaeda tin successfully arrange its ideology to appeal to local grievances in addition to absorb other unofficial jihadist groups. Shifting toward this decentralized model helped insulate the organisation from the loss of members of heart in addition to soul al-Qaeda. This strategy has allowed al-Qaeda to arrive at in addition to keep strength despite Bin Laden's death.
Therefore, despite ISIS's loss of territory, it is imperative that nosotros create non assume that the terrorist grouping volition but collapse. In its electrical flow menstruum of weakness, ISIS is probable to adopt a similar strategy. In fact, evidence suggests ISIS recognizes the importance of spreading its operations across different countries in addition to creating alliances alongside local jihadist groups. As this writer argued inwards a previous article inwards Nov 2017, ISIS is investing unloosen energy into expanding across Africa, establishing the Islamic State inwards the Greater Sahara in addition to carrying out attacks inwards Niger in addition to Burkina Faso. Additionally, 1 of ISIS's greatest strengths is its propaganda strategy that enables the spread of its influence to individuals in addition to cells across the globe. This inwards itself demonstrates that the grouping should non hold upward underestimated.
The UK of Britain in addition to Northern Republic of Ireland (U.K.) serves every bit a poignant instance of ISIS's continued influence since the autumn of the caliphate. In the summertime of 2017 it was revealed that the U.K. had to a greater extent than than 23,000 jihadists that were of involvement to the U.K. safety services. Of farther business organisation is the render of unusual fighters, every bit an estimated 425 British Foreign Fighters had returned to the U.K. every bit of Oct 2017. In the same period, an estimated 271 returned to French Republic in addition to 300 to Germany. In all 3 countries, returnees are either imprisoned or accept successfully evaded the attending of authorities. Despite the loss of their territory in addition to the electrical flow absence of a clear command in addition to command hierarchy, in that location is a gamble that at to the lowest degree unopen to of these returnees volition endeavour to send out attacks inwards the West inwards the close futurity given their adherence to ISIS's ideology in addition to newly acquired combat experience.
Furthermore, inwards 2017 alone, ISIS claimed responsibleness for 3 terrorist attacks inwards the U.K.—Westminster, Manchester Arena, in addition to London Bridge—when the grouping was territorially weak. In 2017, the grouping lost lx pct of its territory. Despite losing resources in addition to territory, the group's global build in addition to effective propaganda strategy tin proceed to inspire attacks inwards the West. ISIS has also used the tactic of lone-wolf terrorism to highly successful effect, every bit demonstrated inwards the Westminster attack. In a similar vein, but to a lesser extent, al-Qaeda has continued to influence in addition to at 1 time attacks fifty-fifty every bit ISIS assumed the drapery of the global jihad. In 2015, al-Qaeda inwards the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) claimed responsibleness for the Charlie Hebdo attack inwards Paris. In addition, al-Qaeda linked militants attacked a pop tourist resort inwards Republic of Mali inwards 2017, killing several tourists.
Given the lay out of independent sympathizers in addition to pocket-sized cells loyal to ISIS in addition to the organization's proven mightiness to deport highly effective in addition to devastating attacks alongside unsophisticated resources in addition to express training, Western governments should non assume the devastation of primal leadership in addition to resources amounts to the terminate of the terrorist group. Al-Qaeda has, similar ISIS, continued to send out terrorist attacks across the globe, despite its perceived refuse afterward 2011.
While prioritization in addition to allotment of resources in addition to fourth dimension are key inwards counterterrorism, the instance of al-Qaeda proves that nosotros must non balance on our accolade in addition to assume that periods of refuse score the consummate devastation of terrorist groups. Both Al-Qaeda in addition to ISIS underscore terrorist groups' adaptability inwards the 21st century, every bit both organizations keep global, regional, in addition to local influence inwards the human face upward of immense, multifaceted, in addition to sustained counterterrorism pressure. Western governments should, therefore, proceed to monitor terrorist organizations every bit closely every bit possible every bit they autumn inwards gild to preclude weather condition that would let a “resurgence.”
Antonia Ward is an analyst inwards the Defence, Security in addition to Infrastructure squad at RAND Europe. Her interrogation interests include counterterrorism, countering trigger-happy extremism (CVE), intelligence, in addition to cybersecurity.
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