Russia has mounted its anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) footprint inwards the Levant in addition to also boosted the Syrian Arab Air Defense Force’s capabilities. Syrian skies forthwith remain a heavily contested combat airspace in addition to a unsafe flashpoint. Moreover, at that spot is some other grave threat to monitor at depression altitudes. Throughout the civil war, diverse non-state armed groups convey acquired advanced man-portable air defense forcefulness systems (MANPADS), which pose a menacing challenge non alone to the deployed forces, but also to commercial aviation about the world. In the seem of these threats, NATO needs to pull fundamental lessons-learned from the contemporary Russian operational art, in addition to to a greater extent than importantly, to prepare a novel agreement inwards social club to grasp the emerging reality inwards Syria. Simply put, command of the Syrian airspace is becoming an extremely crucial issue, in addition to it volition survive a determining gene for the war-torn country’s hereafter status quo. Russia’s integrated air defense forcefulness footprint inwards Syrian Arab Republic was mounted gradually next its intervention, which began inwards September 2015. That year, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation established the Hmeimim Air Base inwards the Mediterranean gateway metropolis of Latakia, next to the Basel al-Assad International Airport, named after the piece of cake heir apparent of Hafez al-Assad.
Russia “Flying High” inwards the Syrian Airspace
When Turkey downed a Russian Su-24 aircraft inwards Nov 2015, Moscow responded yesteryear beefing upwards its surface-to-air missile (SAM) capabilities inwards Syria. In this regard, advanced defensive strategic weapon systems, such every bit the S-400s in addition to the S-300V4s, were deployed to the Hmeimim Air Base. This formidable posture was reinforced yesteryear high-end offensive assets, such every bit SS-26 Iskander short-range ballistic missiles in addition to Su-35 air superiority fighters. In addition, Russian tactical bombers (e.g., Su-34s) started carrying air-to-air missiles during their missions. Finally, the Krasukha-4 electronic warfare system, which almost blinded eastern Ukraine, was also spotted inwards Syrian Arab Republic inwards 2015. All inwards all, NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe at the time, General Philip Breedlove, depicted the Russian efforts every bit an endeavour to create an “A2/AD bubble” inwards the Eastern Mediterranean.
Strikingly, an appointment that took house inwards piece of cake 2017 starkly illustrated the acquaint status quo. On Dec 13, a US Air Force F-22 stealth fighter deployed flares against ii Russian Su-25s. While Washington explained that it was the Russians who crossed over the due east of the Euphrates, Moscow insisted that the F-22 violated the de-confliction zone westwards, in addition to an Su-35 air superiority fighter confronted it to protect the ii Su-25 laid on aircraft. Regardless of which declaration was accurate, the political-military telephone commutation highly resembled that of ii vecino states quarreling over a disputed national airspace issue.
Furthermore, ane item incident encouraged the Russians to invest to a greater extent than inwards the Syrian air defenses. On Apr 7, 2017, the US Navy’s USS Porter in addition to USS Ross Arleigh Burke-class destroyers struck Syria’s al-Shayrat Air Base from the Eastern Mediterranean waters amongst a salvo of 59 Tomahawk Land Attack Missiles. The laid on came after the regime’s chemic weapons utilization inwards the town of Khan Shaykun, Idlib. At the time, the global defense forcefulness community had a huge debate discussing whether the Russian air in addition to missile defense forcefulness contingent was capable of intercepting the incoming Tomahawk Block IVs or not, or whether Moscow sent orders non to practice in addition to thence to avoid an escalatory response.
Following the US strike, which targeted ane of the most of import bases of the Syrian Arab Air Force – where some Russian platforms were also deployed, but evidently Moscow was warned correct before the functioning – the Russian Defense Ministry bluntly announced its plans to bolster the Syrian air defenses. Some debate that the recent downing of the Israeli F-16I was a termination of these efforts.
Downing of the Israeli F-16I: Putting an End to the Operation Orchard Legacy?
A major breakthrough inwards the Syrian Arab Armed Forces’ air defense forcefulness capabilities would make fundamental geopolitical results that would snuff it good beyond “simple” state of war machine modernization. Robust air defenses had already transformed the Syrian skies from a permissive combat airspace into a contested combat airspace. Such a shift could bound Israel’s surgical interventions. This would challenge “the Begin doctrine,” namely preventing hostile strategic weapons proliferation beyond borders, which culminated amongst Operation Orchard, when Syria’s surreptitious nuclear reactor inwards Deir ez-Zor was striking yesteryear the Israeli Air Force inwards 2007.
Nevertheless, Israeli state of war machine planners tin john come upwards up amongst a solution such every bit using tactical ballistic missiles or guided rockets to intervene inwards Syria. An option mightiness survive to assign the newly received F-35 stealth multirole fighters. However, the chance to examine novel SAM systems on F-35s, which volition shape the backbone of NATO’s hereafter tactical aviation, could whet the Russians’ appetite, in addition to could Pb to additional arms transfers to Damascus. In fact, the Arab-Israeli conflicts during the Cold War offered goodness opportunities to brand comparative assessments betwixt American in addition to Soviet weaponry. Moscow, having already tested to a greater extent than than 200 novel weapon systems on the Syrian battleground, would non refrain from such a bonanza, which would also pave the agency for farther lucrative arms sales. Besides, since province orders constitute a substantial proportion of the Russian defense forcefulness industry’s workload at present, Syrian Arab Republic is serving every bit an of import reference for the Kremlin’s state of war machine modernization plans.
“Minefields” at Low Altitudes: The Cases of the Su-25 in addition to the T-129
As explained earlier, apart from the defensive strategic weapon systems run a peril at high- in addition to mid-altitudes, the lower echelons of the Syrian airspace are also dangerous.
On Feb 3, 2018, on a mission inwards Idlib, a Russian Su-25 laid on aircraft was downed, allegedly yesteryear MANPADS fire. Hay’at Tahrir al Sham, an al-Qaeda-affiliated group, claimed the responsibility. MANPADS inwards the hands of terrorists pose a grave threat non alone to state of war machine platforms, but also to commercial aviation. These weapons are shoulder-fired missiles – weighing some 15–20 kg – used against low-flying aircraft. MANPADS technology scientific discipline has achieved impressive improvements, inwards item inwards the guidance systems in addition to inwards avoiding countermeasures. Depending on for sure technical features, a MANPADS’ appointment envelope – the danger zone – is at an height of 10,000–15,000 feet, in addition to it has a arrive at of 3 to vii kilometers.
It is estimated that upwards to 750,000 MANPADS mightiness survive acquaint inwards the world. Open-source news suggests that a wide array of non-state armed groups convey managed to lay their hands on these unsafe weapons throughout the Syrian Civil War. Interestingly, although many of the Syrian Arab Army’s stockpiles were looted, the types of MANPADS that Damascus did non possess, such every bit the Chinese FN-6, were also spotted inwards Syria, hinting at the possibilities of a unsafe greyish in addition to dark marketplace flow.
The Turkish T-129 incident is some other illustration showing that flight at depression altitudes inwards the Syrian airspace resembles an infantry platoon walking through a minefield. On Feb 10, 2018, Turkey lost a T-129 laid on helicopter during Operation Olive Branch. There is no visible sign of MANPADS having been used inwards Turkey’s gunship crash. Yet, at that spot is the likelihood that the laid on helicopter mightiness convey been striking yesteryear anti-aircraft gunfire.
In fact, rotary-wing platforms convey acquire to a greater extent than vulnerable inwards contemporary hybrid conflicts. Since Operation Iraqi Freedom inwards 2003, each loss has made helicopter survivability inwards modern warfare to a greater extent than questionable. Keeping these platforms rubber inwards the 21st century’s contested airspaces is hard. After all, performing evasive maneuvers piece flight real depression inwards social club to avoid MANPADS makes helicopters to a greater extent than prone to anti-aircraft gunfire. Unfortunately, at that spot is no silvery bullet solution for choppers, or fifty-fifty for lite laid on aircraft.
Syria As a Military Testbed
All inwards all, at that spot is a important showdown over the Syrian airspace, in addition to the winner(s) volition shape the country’s future. What did non occur inwards in addition to about this airspace? Following is a brief recap of the yesteryear half dozen years.
In 2012, a Turkish RF-4E Phantom reconnaissance aircraft was downed yesteryear the Syrian air defenses; inwards the same year, the rebels downed a Syrian Mig-23 fighter aircraft at depression altitude, marker the commencement aircraft loss for the regime. Again inwards 2012, the government launched Scud missiles onto the rebel positions inwards Aleppo. Consequently, NATO deployed 3 missile defense forcefulness contingents inwards Turkey. In 2013, the Turkish Air Force downed a Syrian Mi-17 helicopter. In 2014, an Israeli Patriot downed a Syrian Su-24 over the Golan Heights. In the same year, a Jordanian F-16 crashed nigh Raqqa – some claimed it was downed yesteryear ISIS – in addition to the airplane pilot was subsequently executed, tragically. In 2015, notably, a NATO nation, Turkey, downed a Russian aircraft violating its airspace. Then, Russian Federation established a robust A2/AD posture inwards Syria. In the same year, Assad’s forces allegedly downed an American MQ-1 Predator drone over Latakia. In 2016, Russian Federation sent the Admiral Kuznetsov aircraft carrier to the Eastern Mediterranean for combat operations, which was a highly symbolic motion signaling to the West. In 2017, the United States of America of America striking Syria’s al-Shayrat airbase amongst Tomahawks, downed a Syrian Su-22 laid on aircraft, in addition to intercepted several Iranian drones.
Finally, at the fourth dimension of writing, a Russian Su-25 laid on aircraft, an Israeli F-16I multirole fighter, a Turkish T-129 laid on helicopter, in addition to an Iranian surveillance drone were added to the tape alone inside a week. All of these incidents divulge the tension inwards the Syrian airspace.
Key Takeaways in addition to Policy Recommendations
Firstly, the Syrian skies tin john no longer survive assessed through the lens of Operation Orchard. Rather, Moscow’s A2/AD contingent inwards the country, which remains at that spot to remain for at to the lowest degree one-half a century, along amongst the boosted Syrian air defense forcefulness capabilities, convey turned the country’s permissive airspace into a heavily contested one. Under these conditions, no Western aircraft – fifty-fifty the high-end stealth platforms such every bit the F-22s in addition to the F-35s – tin john wing confidently inside the appointment envelopes of the SAM systems inwards Syria, allow lonely non-stealth ones.
Furthermore, Russian Federation has come upwards into the movie every bit the novel boss inwards the Syrian airspace – definitely in addition to thence inwards the western axis of the country. For example, Ankara, beingness a NATO member, had to pursue top-level diplomatic talks amongst Moscow before launching Operation Euphrates Shield to al-Bab, in addition to Operation Olive Branch to Afrin. This tellingly sets forth the novel strategic balance. Moreover, the Russian contingent’s A2/AD capabilities convey provided it amongst the fundamental wages of influencing the operational tempo of the Turkish Air Force during crossborder campaigns.
The Syrian Arab Army vitally needs the Russian air comprehend in addition to unopen air back upwards to operate, whereas the Syrian Arab Air Force in addition to the Syrian Arab Air Defense Force strongly depend on the Russian defense forcefulness manufacture to sustain their combat readiness.
Strikingly, at the fourth dimension of writing, the caput of the State Duma Defense Committee, Vladimir Shamanov, hinted at the prospects of denying the Syrian airspace to unusual actors that did non have permission from Damascus. Although it is non the official opinion of Moscow, yet, the sentiment was speculated upon yesteryear ane of the most influential figures of the Russian state of war machine establishment. Thus, the operational safety of Operation Inherent Resolve mightiness acquire problematic, should the tensions betwixt the West in addition to Russian Federation proceed to mount.
Secondly, NATO’s decades-long dichotomy of eastern in addition to southern flanks has been militarily rendered abortive. Simply put, many of the Russian weapon systems that the Baltic States mightiness survive worrying most convey had their combat debuts inwards Syria. The Russian military-industrial complex is forthwith able to examine the detection in addition to tracking limits of their radar systems, sensors, in addition to integrated air defenses on diverse NATO aircraft inwards the Syrian front. In addition, Russian state of war machine planners forthwith amend empathize the comparative analyses betwixt several fundamental platforms, including the US Air Force’s F-22s in addition to the Russian Su-35s (and the latterly deployed Su-57s), nether existent battlefield conditions.
Consequently, NATO needs a holistic strategy to comprehend both flanks, in addition to fifty-fifty to a greater extent than importantly, a thorough news travail to empathize the existent important of Moscow’s state of war machine scorecard inwards Syria. After all, open-source pieces of evidence advise that, every bit of piece of cake summertime 2017, the relatively small-scale Russian Air Force grouping managed to smasher some 90,000 targets in addition to flew but about 28,000 missions amongst negligible losses. According to Russian defense forcefulness experts, this marked a truthful breakthrough, keeping inwards hear that the Soviets lost ane combat aircraft on average for every 750 sorties flown inwards Afghanistan.
Thirdly, despite the emphasis on strategic weapon systems, tactical game-changers below 10,000–15,000 feet should survive monitored carefully, particularly regarding threats from terrorists in addition to unusual fighters. The efforts inwards hunting downward the Libyan MANPADS next the 2011 intervention were non effective. Some of these low-altitude air defense forcefulness weapons, or their components, were spotted across a wide axis, ranging from Republic of Mali to Egypt. Furthermore, when it comes to Syria, nosotros are talking most advanced MANPADS.
All inwards all, the geopolitical showdown over the Syrian airspace volition decide the hereafter of the war-torn country, every bit good every bit the farther fallout for regional in addition to global security.
About the Author
Dr. Can Kasapoğlu is 2018 IPC-Stiftung Mercator Fellow at the German linguistic communication Institute for International in addition to Security Affairs (SWP)
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