We must human face upwards facts,” remarked Senator John McCain inward August 2017, “we are losing inward Afghanistan together with fourth dimension is of the essence if nosotros intend to plough the tide.” He is non the only 1 who has argued that the Taliban are on the march. “The Taliban are getting stronger, the authorities is on the retreat, they are losing Earth to the Taliban twenty-four lx minutes menses past times day,” Abdul Jabbar Qahraman, a retired Afghan full general who was the Afghan government’s military machine envoy to Helmand Province until 2016, told the New York Times over the summer. Media outlets receive got likewise proclaimed that “The Taliban practise expect a lot similar they are winning” together with that this is “The state of war America can’t win.”
Although the Taliban has demonstrated a surprising might to last together with acquit high-profile attacks inward cities similar Kabul, it is weaker today than nigh recognize. It is hamstrung past times an ideology that is likewise extreme for nigh Afghans, a leadership construction that is likewise closely linked to the Pashtun ethnic group, an over-reliance on savage tactics that receive got killed tens of thousands of innocent Afghan civilians together with alienated many more, a widespread interest inward corruption, together with a dependence on unpopular unusual allies such every bit Pakistan. Most senior Taliban leaders yet promise that they volition 1 twenty-four lx minutes menses live able to re-take Kabul, overthrow the Afghan government, together with flora an extreme Islamic emirate inward the country. But given the group’s weaknesses together with the United States’ determination to keep troops inward Afghanistan, that is unlikely.
In fact, the weaknesses of both the Taliban together with the electrical flow Afghan authorities propose that a stalemate is the nigh probable number for the foreseeable future. Territory may modify hands, although likely non plenty to tip the residual inward favor of either side. As such, the Taliban’s best alternative at 1 time is to pursue a negotiated settlement, since it is unlikely to defeat the Afghan authorities together with its international backers on the battlefield. For their parts, Kabul together with Washington should likewise support a settlement because they volition non probable live able to secure an outright military machine victory, either.
THE “NEW” TALIBAN
The Taliban is a different organisation today than it was inward the 1990s, when it ruled Afghanistan. It is run past times Haibatullah Akhunzada, a erstwhile original judge together with caput of the Taliban Ulema Council, the group’s highest religious authority. Akhunzada together with other Taliban leaders receive got attempted to win Afghan hearts together with minds past times funding some evolution projects together with promising to reform the pedagogy system. Today’s Taliban leaders are also to a greater extent than technically savvy than those of the 1990s; they proudly advertise their websites, Twitter feeds, together with glossy magazines—although they oftentimes crevice downwardly on civilians using some of the same technology.
The Taliban has resiliently held on to rural terrain together with has managed to acquit repeated high-profile attacks inward Kabul together with other cities. Its leaders receive got created an organizational construction inward which the superlative echelons furnish strategic guidance together with oversight piece military machine together with political officials inward the plain brand operational together with tactical decisions. The Taliban has also managed to retain some organizational cohesion, despite the loss of ii leaders inward the past times few years—a meaning blow for whatever organization.
Yet the Taliban has faced serious setbacks. After temporarily seizing the northern urban center of Kunduz inward September 2015, the grouping lost command of it inside days every bit U.S. together with Afghan forces rallied to accept it back. In 2016 the Taliban spot pressure level on several provincial capitals, at times simultaneously, but could non overrun whatever of them. In 2017 it failed to mountain a sustained threat against whatever provincial capital.
WHY THE TALIBAN FAILS
The Taliban’s failures hollo for to several deficiencies.
First, its ideology is yet likewise extreme for many Afghans—including urban Afghans—who adhere to a much less conservative shape of Islam that permits nigh modern technology, music, political participation, together with some rights for women. For example, nearly all Afghans state they approve of women voting, piece girls, barred from pedagogy nether the Taliban, at 1 time concern human relationship for 39 percentage of world schoolhouse students inward Afghanistan. The Afghan Parliament has ready aside 69 of the 249 seats inward its lower solid for women, piece the upper solid includes 27 woman somebody members of parliament out of its 102 members.
It is non alone surprising, then, that a nationwide poll inward 2015 found that 92 percentage of Afghans supported the Kabul authorities together with only 4 percentage favored the Taliban, a conclusion that has been consistent over roughly a decade of polling. In the same poll, nigh Afghans also rejected the notion that the Taliban had move to a greater extent than moderate.
The 2nd deficiency is that the Taliban is largely a Pashtun movement, which limits its back upwards inward Hazara, Tajik, together with Uzbek areas. The Taliban’s superlative layers are dominated past times Pashtuns, although in that location is a chip to a greater extent than ethnic diverseness at its lower levels. Haibatullah Akhunzada is a Pashtun from the Noorzai tribe inward southern Afghanistan. His deputies, Sirajuddin Haqqani together with Mohammad Yaqub, are both Pashtuns. Other senior leaders—such every bit Abdul Qayyum Zakir, Ahmadullah Nanai, Abdul Latif Mansur, together with Noor Mohammad Saqib—are Pashtuns. Overall, simply about fourscore percentage of the Taliban’s superlative 50 leaders are Pashtuns from Kandahar Province. Based on Afghanistan’s recent history of grievances betwixt the Pashtun Taliban together with the Hazara, Tajik, together with Uzbek communities, the Taliban’s over-reliance on Pashtun leaders is a serious weakness.Roughly 93 percentage of Afghans state they are fearful of encountering the Taliban because of its extremist views together with brutality.
Third, the Taliban has favored savage tactics to exert control, which has undermined its back upwards inward Afghanistan. Like many insurgent groups, Taliban fighters receive got aggressively targeted civilians together with authorities personnel with everything from assassinations together with roadside bombs to ambushes together with raids. Taliban strikes inward the showtime one-half of 2017 killed to a greater extent than civilians than inward whatever other six-month menses since the UN began documenting civilian casualties. Suicide attacks receive got been especially devastating, killing thousands of Afghan civilians over the past times decade together with maiming tens of thousands of others.
According to an Asia Foundation poll, roughly 93 percentage of Afghans state they are fearful of encountering the Taliban because of its extremist views together with brutality. But inward improver to world distaste, brutality has also led to the displacement of families, civilian holding damage, express liberty of movement, together with has reduced access to humanitarian aid, education, together with healthcare—all of which receive got probable lessened the group’s appeal.
Fourth, although many observers hollo for to corruption inward the Afghan government, fewer empathize that the Taliban is implicated too, especially inward the drug trade. Drug revenue accounts for over one-half of the Taliban’s full financing together with is the unmarried nigh of import origin of revenue for local commanders. Local Taliban commanders fund their networks past times taxing the trade, including farmers. The Taliban 1 time exported drugs from Transitional Islamic State of Afghanistan inward the shape of opium syrup, but the grouping is increasingly edifice labs inward the province that procedure opium into morphine or heroin. These actions receive got helped ensure that Transitional Islamic State of Afghanistan remains the world’s largest opium producer together with exporter, producing an estimated fourscore percentage of the world’s opium. Taliban drug coin is used to pay everyone from human foot soldiers to Afghan authorities officials, together with the Taliban’s interest inward virtually all aspects of the opium merchandise suggests that it is akin to a drug cartel.
The 5th deficiency is that the Taliban relies heavily on back upwards from neighboring countries—particularly Pakistan—that are unpopular with many Afghans. Islamic Republic of Pakistan together with its Directorate of Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), the country’s premier spy agency, furnish several types of assistance to the Taliban together with allied groups such every bit the Haqqani Network. One is sanctuary for leaders together with their families. Pakistani officials receive got also provided the Taliban with money, training, intelligence, lethal material, together with non-lethal fabric such every bit communications equipment. Yet only 3.7 percentage of Afghans gave a favorable rating to Pakistan, according to a 2016 watch poll conducted past times Gallup together with the Broadcasting Board of Governors. At 5.8 percent, to a greater extent than Afghans gave a favorable rating to the Islamic State (ISIS), together with many to a greater extent than had a positive watch of India, at nearly 62 percent.
PEACE TALKS
Although Western policymakers together with academics receive got harped on the Afghan government’s weaknesses together with warned of imminent Taliban victory, the Taliban’s futurity does non expect promising. The grouping has the might to move on waging an insurgency for the foreseeable future. But its odds of overthrowing the Afghan government—or fifty-fifty holding urban terrain—are long.
Faced with such express prospects, Taliban leaders should laid about serious peace negotiations with the Afghan government, something they receive got been reluctant to do, perchance because they believed they had the upper mitt on the battlefield. Pushing the Taliban to laid about serious village talks—in particular, sitting downwardly with Afghan authorities representatives—will probable hollo for sustained efforts past times the U.S.A. together with regional partners, especially Pakistan.
Since the Taliban controls some rural terrain, its leaders could probable negotiate a number of concessions from the Afghan authorities together with its allies. Examples include a bigger piece of job for Islam—and Islamic law—in Afghan institutions, the integration of some Taliban officials inward authorities posts, a crackdown on authorities corruption, together with fifty-fifty the eventual withdrawal of U.S. together with other unusual combat forces. It is also worth pointing out to the group’s leaders that postponing negotiations is unlikely to amend their negotiating position. The Trump administration’s annunciation that it would jettison the Obama administration’s deadlines for the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Transitional Islamic State of Afghanistan leaves the Taliban facing a reinvigorated foe.
In Colombia, the FARC finally agreed to serious peace negotiations later over 200,000 people had died, millions had been displaced, together with thousands of civilians had been maimed past times set down mines. As FARC leader Timoleon Jimenez, known every bit “Timochenko,” acknowledged inward 2012: “The continuation of the conflict volition involve to a greater extent than expiry together with destruction, to a greater extent than grief together with tears, to a greater extent than poverty together with misery for some together with greater wealth for others. Imagine the lives that could receive got been saved these lastly 10 years. So nosotros seek dialogue, a solution without shedding blood, through political understanding.”
Timochenko had also realized that the FARC couldn’t win. It is high fourth dimension for Taliban leaders to larn inward at a similar conclusion. The Afghan population, which has suffered from nearly forty years of conflict, deserves an destination to the war.
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