Asaad Hanna
When a state of war machine functioning supported past times Turkey was launched against the metropolis of Afrin, it hardly came equally a surprise. The city, whose inhabitants are to a greater extent than frequently than non Kurdish, is also a major base of operations of the People's Protection Units (YPG), a state of war machine arrangement which received considerable back upward from America, equally good equally from Russia, inwards the manage against IS. The YPG led the manage against IS inwards Raqqa too northern Syria, patch at the same fourth dimension attempting to grade out areas for self-rule, to live controlled too run past times the organization. Multiple Turkish statements to the press had alluded to such an operation, too inwards mid-January it began inwards earnest inwards cooperation with the Free Syrian Army (FSA) which is based inwards the expanse about the Euphrates Shield nether Turkish control.
America did non hesitate to deny its back upward for the Kurdish forces, equally did the Russians. Russian Federation had withdrawn its operatives from the Afrin expanse too also recalled workers from its “Reconciliation Centre” which had a branch inwards the metropolis of Afrin. The city, similar a shot gratis from American too Russian operatives, has been left to these Kurdish armed groups equally a battleground for their manage against the Turkish the world forces too the Syrian opposition.
The Kurdish armed units have got lost both their state of war machine too political international support, which had played a crucial role inwards its acquisition of greater ability too control. America was protecting the units politically, patch Russian Federation covered their state of war machine needs. As such, the grouping began relying on the state of war machine equipment it was beingness provided with on the ground. They were, however, unable to ground with the Turkish army's aerial ability too heavy weaponry.
Options opened upward to the YPG units:
There are solely ii choices opened upward to the YPG: confrontation or retreat. As a map of the expanse surrounding Afrin shows, the solely road out of the expanse opened upward to the YPG leads to areas controlled past times the regime. The residual of the areas surrounding Afrin are nether the command of the FSA, which is fighting on the side of the Turkish army, too volition thus non allow the Kurdish forces to retreat from its territory, too volition instead apply to a greater extent than push clit per unit of measurement area on the metropolis itself.
But, with no movement from the YPG inwards either direction, apparently it is waiting to run across if some course of bargain or international understanding tin live struck, which volition rescue its state of war machine presence inwards the Afrin region.
If the YPG retreats from this region, it effectively concedes its state of war machine presence inwards the al-Jazira area, including Hasaka too Raqqa. However, apparently this volition non gain off equally it appears that the usual understanding betwixt Turkey, Russia, too the U.S. of A. of America volition forbid this.
Does such a bargain exist?
The dark-green calorie-free for a battle inwards Afrin did non come upward at a especially calm menstruum of the Syrian war. In fact, it came a fourth dimension when the battles inwards the countryside about Hama too Idlib are growing fiercer equally the authorities too the Russians seek to brand upward the world inwards the management of Idlib too accomplish Abu Duhur state of war machine airport.
This airdrome had been earmarked past times the Turkish forces for utilisation equally a state of war machine base of operations inwards the Idlib countryside to overlook the areas which autumn nether the 'de-escalation' agreement, at to the lowest degree according to previous Turkish statements on the matter. But all of a abrupt Turkish line concern for the airdrome ended, equally some of the rebel units supported past times Turkey withdrew from the expanse allowing the authorities to convey command of the airdrome inwards the 2nd solar daytime of Operation Olive Branch. This points to an understanding betwixt Turkey too Russian Federation which links these ii events.
Potential scenarios for Operation Olive Branch:
It is past times similar a shot clear that the battle volition non live a unproblematic one, despite the vast gulf inwards state of war machine capacity betwixt the ii sides. We are, however, soundless inwards the early on days of the fight, too Afrin's hard mountainous landscape give the YPG units an advantage. By way of comparing with the battles fought past times the Turkish the world forces inwards al-Bab too Jarablus against IS - which lasted over half dozen months due to the dense concentration of civilians inwards these cities - the Turkish the world forces volition probable human face the same occupation inwards Afrin.
This is due to the YPG's beingness embedded inside the civilian population inwards Afrin, which is far larger than the population inwards al-Bab. Estimates advise that the population there, including those who have got fled other parts of Syria, is most 600,000.
On inspection of the cast the battles have got taken to date, it is probable the Turkish the world forces too the FSA volition split the metropolis into ii zones. One assault volition launch from the corridor coming from the metropolis Azaz to the the due west of Afrin, thereby splitting the metropolis into ii northern too southern sections.
This ought to cut down the occupation of confronting a densely populated civilian area, but a bulk of the population volition stay inwards the southern role of the metropolis amongst the YPG units embedded inwards that area.
These units volition non live able to proceed fighting equally they volition live subjected to push clit per unit of measurement area from ii sides - the FSA too Turkish the world forces attacking from the north, patch the areas due west too S of Idlib volition live used past times the Turkish the world forces to surroundings the YPG too complete off the battle.
Consequently the YPG volition withdraw Russian permission to access the solely remaining path out of the area, which is inwards the management of the Syrian the world forces about Aleppo. From in that place they could later cross to the expanse about Raqqa which was nether their command after they defeated IS.
Turkey volition non convey defeat inwards this battle no thing what the terms of victory. This is because a defeat would reverberate negatively on the ruling party's picture too reputation domestically too internationally. The YPG is the Syrian fly of the Kurdistan Workers' Party which Turkey has been at state of war with for decades.
The inquiry raised past times a Turkish defeat at the hands of the YPG would be: if the Turkish the world forces is also weak to defeat the YPG, how tin it peradventure stand upward up to the other challenges too unusual dangers to Turkey's national security?
The YPG's relations with other actors
The YPG has provided assistance to the Syrian the world forces inwards a seat out of areas, such equally the assist they provided inwards establishing a render road serving the civilians too fighters of the pro-Assad militias inwards Kafriya too al-Faw'a, equally good equally the role they played inwards the movement waged past times Assad too the Russians inwards eastern Aleppo.
Despite all of this, the authorities has non been able to back upward the YPG equally doing too so would involve placing itself inwards straight confrontation with the Turkish army, something Assad does non currently want. Another component worth considering is that Russian Federation volition non allow Assad to renege on its international understanding with Turkey too America.
The YPG, for their part, released a tilt calling for the Syrian the world forces to drib dead into Afrin too human face the Turkish army. The authorities did non unloose whatever tilt or reaction to this appeal. As for the armed factions of the Syrian opposition, they are obliged to stand upward with the Turkish the world forces on this thing due to the previous fighting too enmity betwixt the YPG too the FSA, most notably inwards the town of Ayn Daqnah where the YPG entered the town, killed or too so l FSA fighters too posed with their corpses inwards Afrin.
What does the hereafter grip for Afrin next the YPG's deviation from the city?
Following the deviation of these Kurdish units from the metropolis of Afrin, it volition come upward nether the command of those local factions of the Syrian opposition supported past times Turkey. Here it is worth noting that a seat out of Kurdish state of war machine organisations were chosen to manage amongst the Turkish army, such equally the Kurdish arm of Ahrar al-Sham, too 300 Kurdish fighters from the Levant Front, equally good equally other groups.
Aleppo's northern countryside volition drib dead role of a straight road from the metropolis of Jarablus to Idlib. Subsequently, this road volition live used to carry thousands of civilians from Idlib to Afrin equally they essay to avoid the daily aerial bombing the metropolis is currently beingness subjected to too escape a much larger battle which looms too may erupt at whatever instant similar a shot that the Syrian the world forces has reached the outskirts of Idlib. This volition increase the proportion of Arabs inwards the metropolis at the expense of the local Kurdish population.
It is similar a shot clear that the Syrian opposition tin no longer grip whatever of the territory it currently controls inwards the long-term equally long equally in that place is no international understanding or province acting to guarantee this. Turkish presence too so deep inwards Syrian territory too its command over vast swathes of the northward of Syrian Arab Republic (which may extend to other areas) has drib dead the solely thing protecting these areas from beingness retaken past times the forces of the Syrian regime.
Asaad Hanna is a Syrian civil monastic enjoin too human rights activist too an economic science graduate from Damascus University. He writes for many e-newspapers such equally Al-Monitor.
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