By Julian Koeck
After the autumn of the Soviet Union, many intellectuals too politicians saw the climax of modernity itself. From forthwith on, many thought, western republic too capitalism would Pb humanity into a golden future. No i conveyed this thought to a greater extent than elegantly than Francis Fukuyama inwards his mass The End of History too the Last Man. The nations of the minute too tertiary solid soil but had to follow their western idols to move business office of this paradise. Two decades later, nosotros are healed from such glorious illusions. The Western World itself has changed (and keeps changing). The truths of modernism had to brand room for postmodern uncertainty too novel evolving dogmata. This does non alter the centre of what strategy is, but it makes things to a greater extent than complex too quite different for the strategist. Strategy is the fine art of reaching attainable goals amongst express resources. The success of a strategy depends on 5 factors:
A thorough agreement of the strategic surround tin only move achieved through right analysis of the given circumstances, specially factors such every bit the conclusion of the strengths too weaknesses of all parties, economical situation, too the volition of the people to fight. Obviously, this is a challenging intellectual endeavor, depending on the lineament of intelligence too the intellectual resources to analyze it correctly.
2. Based on that analysis, clear, desirable, too attainable goals remove hold to move established. H5N1 strategy is non but a listing of policy goals that could (or should) move achieved. Instead, they must move examined for feasibility every bit good every bit desirability so every bit non to move a utopian fantasy. Strategies mustn't move confused amongst visions.
No objectives, regardless of the sum of resources thrown at them, tin move realized without an acceptable method to attain them. Accordingly, the ways of turning the determined goals into reality must move formulated concisely. It is of import to discovery a compromise betwixt overly full general tasks on the i mitt too overly detailed formulae on the other.
All participating forces, politicians, too other stakeholders must commit themselves to the strategy. Without the appropriate degree of resources, to include forces too political will, the potential success of the strategy is severely restricted. Also of import is that all of import stakeholders empathise the strategy thoroughly too are able to human activity accordingly inwards an autonomous manner.
Finally, strategists must fix for contingencies. Obviously, a strategy tin move every bit clever every bit possible, the generals tin move every bit committed every bit possible, yet it may soundless fail. That’s business office of the unchanging conditio humana that defines.
"Napoleon's Retreat" past times Vasily Vereshchagin (Wikimedia)
These admittedly idealistic factors brand strategies at the same fourth dimension complex too straightforward. The depth of the chaotic solid soil inwards which nosotros alive makes analysis hard. Outside of games such every bit chess or Go, games amongst strict rules, nosotros cannot foresee the time to come evolution of things. Therefore, strategies tin only offering us leading principles. This, inwards combination amongst the given circumstances that straight influence the options available, leads to deceptively uncomplicated strategies. The Russians, for instance, could non best Napoleon’s Grande Armée inwards 1812 past times employing the way of regular warfare. Instead, they chose to merchandise infinite for time—creating the conditions inwards which the French forces were punished past times weather, sickness, hunger, too relentless attacks on their logistics. Ultimately, Napoleon had to flee Russia, too his visible weakness led to his Prussian too Austrian allies changing sides. The initial positions became exchanged; forthwith Napoleon had the smaller, weaker solid soil forces amongst trivial hope of overpowering the united mightiness of his enemies. He could, however, non play for fourth dimension similar the Russians, too eventually at that topographic point was only i strategy left to him: using interior lines too destroying the opposing armies i past times one. The strategy was sound, but inwards the destination he lost, too this is a goodness representative for the fact that a good developed strategy may move conditio sine qua non for success but cannot guarantee it. The representative shows that strategies tend to move the effect of a complicated procedure too tin also, paradoxically, move described simply. Arguably, this may mislead leaders (and scholars) into thinking it’s similarly tardily fifty-fifty for laymen to formulate a audio strategy.
Another betoken that makes things complex is the (also rather simple) truth that a strategy has no value if at that topographic point is no commitment to pursue it. Again, history gives a goodness example. Not dissimilar the Russians inwards 1812, the Romans inwards 218 BC could non overcome Hannibal’s invasion through opened upwards battle. He could only move defeated past times the strategy of Quintus Fabius Maximus Cunctator—namesake of the Fabian strategy. He avoided opened upwards battle, attacked Hannibal’s logistics, too punished cities that defected to Hannibal’s cause. However, non all Roman generals were happy amongst this strategy. The minute inwards ascendence to Fabius, the magister equitum Marcus Minucius Rufus, attacked Hannibal too almost lost all his legions. Later, he died inwards the Battle of Cannae—the most devastating loss inwards Roman history. The Romans had to lose meaning blood too treasure earlier they returned to the Fabian strategy that would evidence successful.
In a sense, a goodness strategy serves every bit the focal betoken that combines all forces to fulfill a specific objective. Without it, the particular forces aim inwards various directions; they tin fifty-fifty cancel each other’s efforts. This occupation is every bit former every bit time, but it seems to move to a greater extent than too to a greater extent than of import inwards postmodern times.
Postmodernity arguably led to highly subdivided nations inwards the West. Instead of to a greater extent than or less homogenous classes amongst interdependent political parties too movements, today’s social club is increasingly based on sure groups who experience a togetherness through i particular quality. This lineament tin move gender, race, ancestry, sexual orientation, religion, ideology, or almost anything else. Most individuals are associated amongst various identity-groups. Therefore, they are non sheer replacements of the former classes, but a novel phenomenon of a to a greater extent than too to a greater extent than various society. The concluding few U.S. elections remove hold shown the growing importance of identity politics, too both parties played this card. One of the top dog developments of modernity was the creation of nation-states too the homogenization of ethnic differences. Postmodernity tends to weaken the identities of nations. Often, the members of various identity-groups remove hold to a greater extent than inwards mutual amongst members of their identity grouping inwards other nations than amongst their beau citizens. Common beliefs (and, therefore, aims for the social club too the state) are increasingly hard to find. Examples for this tin easily move seen inwards today's Europe, where non only members of the far right experience such strong contempt for their liberal compatriots that they stand upwards together amongst the far right groups inwards other countries against them without feeling unpatriotic. Business elites too scholars, to advert to a greater extent than or less other example, remove hold oftentimes to a greater extent than inwards mutual amongst their colleagues inwards other nations than amongst their countrymen, too. These examples hint at the difficulty of developing successful national strategies.
The ascent importance of social media intensifies this process. Ironically, to a greater extent than people than ever tin phonation their persuasion publicly, but they exercise so to a greater extent than too to a greater extent than inwards ideological echo chambers. These echo chambers too identity groups are oftentimes interdependent inwards i way or another.
The postmodern sub-dividedness of the nation is clearly a weak point. Nothing shows this meliorate than the ongoing Russian attacks on the West. In Europe, the Russians back upwards groups on the political right exactly every bit they back upwards those on the left. This back upwards has no ideological rationale—the Cold War is over, after all; t is rather close weakening the social basis of European nations. Additionally, the Russians seek to laid different ethnic groups inwards the European countries at odds. In 2016, Russian tv broadcast news close a 13-year-old German-Russian daughter that allegedly had been abducted too raped past times Arabs inwards Berlin. Although constabulary apace debunked the stor, German-Russians organized demonstrations via social media piece the Russian unusual government minister Sergej Lawrow spoke of a cover-up through the High German populace authorities. So far, the greatest success inwards this data state of war was sure the interference amongst the recent presidential election inwards the United States.
German Defense Minister Ursula von der Leyen inwards 2015. (DPA)
Postmodern wars volition non move fought on battlefields alone. Strategic actors employ data warfare, aiming at the basis of societies too their volition to concur their ground. They volition also employ economical warfare. There are covert ops too wars past times proxy (Russia inwards Ukraine, the U.S. inwards Syria), state of war through the way of organized offense (the Islamic State, North Korea), and, of course, terrorism abroad too inwards the West. Lastly, at that topographic point are ongoing cyber wars. These are exactly ideal types, on an empirical degree nosotros volition discovery reams of variations.
What does this hateful for the time to come of strategy? Analysis volition no uncertainty move yet to a greater extent than difficult. All spheres must move considered, non only the strictly military machine ones. Therefore, strategies must non move restricted to operational needs alone. There volition move an ever increasing demand for articulation strategies betwixt quite different organizations similar law enforcement, political communicators, too cyber experts, for example. The military machine volition demand to professionalize too foster the cognition of different spheres inwards its ain ranks. Arguably, the construction of modern armies is outdated. Artur Varanda makes a goodness instance inwards this regard. In conflicts amongst blurry lines too trivial reply time, the personal competence too expertise of every soldier is, too volition move on to move increasingly, essential. Therefore, strategies volition demand to move voiced non only inwards the staff rooms but must move made clear to every soldier too other involved agents. In this sense, the postmodern full general needs to move quite a competent populace relations manager. This way only he volition move able to secure the crucial commitment of his soldiers too other parties.
However, communication is non needed within the military machine too other agencies alone. Social media has move a powerful tool of influencing the political province of affairs of a nation. All strategists—be they soldiers, politicians, or draw of piece of work organisation leaders—have to select notice of the societal atmosphere, and must non rely only on mainstream media. H5N1 successful shooting state of war is non a success if it leads to social disruptions. More than ever, soldiers remove hold to hold inwards heed that their undertaking is non only a military machine one—but political, too.
The best way to protect strategies from unusual data warfare attacks too to strengthen the back upwards of a subdivided social club may move the creation of strong narratives that give the strategies an of import significance beyond the sphere of sheer powerfulness politics. All representatives of states volition demand to communicate the chosen narrative congruently. At the same time, it must move formulated inwards a way that speaks to every bit many groups inwards social club every bit possible. This volition non ever move every bit tardily every bit inwards the instance of a grouping similar Boko Haram, who—representing what is widely seen every bit evil—could non hope to discovery whatsoever cast of solidarity inwards the West. The #BringBackOurGirls campaign is a goodness representative how strong narratives tin move created through social media.
ONE COULD SAY, THAT THE POSTMODERN STRATEGIST HAS NOT ONLY TO WIN IN H5N1 POWER GAME, BUT TO TELL H5N1 STORY WELL...
Considering strategy too postmodernity, i affair seems clear: The strategists of the time to come genuinely demand to move masters of many subjects. They volition demand to analyze carefully, select the measurements of the realm of possibilities (and impossibilities), select the many trade-offs betwixt the different spheres into account, consider the numerous interests too internal logics of all relevant agencies, too win too ensure the continuous commitment of all stakeholders. While doing all that, they remove hold to bargain amongst a divided people too enemies that seek to piece of work their ain people against the strategy. One could say, that the postmodern strategist has non only to win inwards a powerfulness game, but to tell a even out well, a even out every bit former every bit humanity close why too how nosotros fight, what nosotros aspire to, too what nosotros fear. Long-term strategies volition only piece of work when they are carried too supported past times strong narratives that plough over too convince a meaning fraction of a gradually (in the worst instance inexorably) divided people. Therefore, the postmodern strategist needs to discovery his way inwards the jungle of different agencies every bit good every bit to position the latest political too societal trends.
Julian Koeck is an historian interested inwards the mechanisms how ideas alter (or exercise non change) societies. His dissertation is close the ideological concepts of the High German Right inwards the belatedly 19th too early on 20th century.
This article appeared originally at Strategy Bridge.
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