By LTG Michael K. Nagata
Achieving significantly greater strategic success against terrorism remains within America’s grasp, but exclusively if nosotros are willing to last equally adaptive together with flexible—indeed to a greater extent than so—than our terrorist adversaries cause got proven to be. Achieving this volition require us to brand investments, adopt practices, together with brand choices nosotros previously cause got not. The purpose of this narrative is to encourage a larger together with to a greater extent than effective give-and-take virtually these investments, practices, together with choices. Although the U.S. Government (USG) has ofttimes claimed to cause got a whole-of-government approach inwards utilizing all elements of national mightiness to struggle terrorism, our struggle against the Islamist State of Republic of Iraq together with Syrian Arab Republic (ISIS) has demonstrated that nosotros must strengthen our emphasis together with resourcing of non-kinetic counterterrorism (CT) efforts to jibe the strengths that nosotros together with our allies cause got developed since 9/11 inwards kinetic efforts.
Where We Have Been
According to a recent U.S. Army-sponsored RAND study, since 9/11 the U.S.A. has deployed to a greater extent than than 2.7 meg armed services service members together with authorities civilians to deport or back upwardly dozens of CT campaigns together with armed services operations; many of which endure to this day.2 During these years, the U.S.A. has developed extraordinary capabilities together with strengths for contesting terrorism, ranging from precise armed services actions to capture or kill terrorist leaders, to impressive police enforcement operations to convey terrorist perpetrators to justice, to sophisticated news operations to enable both ourselves together with our international partners to disrupt unsafe terrorist plots, together with beyond.
Entire CT career fields cause got been created or cause got expanded. The “Find-Fix-Finish-Exploit-Analyze” formula for illuminating together with attacking terrorist networks has drib dead a permanent occupation of the CT lexicon. All Americans tin give notice together with should last immensely proud of the progress nosotros cause got made inwards creating the most impressive array of kinetic CT capabilities inwards our history. However, despite our best efforts together with the efforts of our partners together with allies roughly the world, terrorism today is to a greater extent than widespread together with to a greater extent than complex than when nosotros began.
Today, the Salafi Jihadist movement—as good equally a multitude of other tearing extremist movements—continues to grow globally. Outside our country, the job of Salafi Jihadist terrorism has expanded from its master roots inwards locales such equally Yemen, Sudan, Afghanistan, together with Islamic Republic of Pakistan into dozens of countries together with across every region. Terrorist movements across the political-religious spectrum are becoming increasingly effective inwards using the meshwork together with inspiring radicalization together with mobilization of individuals roughly the world, including within our ain country. Despite our efforts of the past times 17 years, terrorists’ mightiness to lift revenue together with resources, sponsor together with broadcast extremist ideologies, recruit fighters, together with displace terrorist operatives from the world to the world has significantly grown.
Said to a greater extent than simply, the U.S.A. is facing an upward strategic trajectory of global terrorism. According to the U.S. State Department’s annual Country Reports on Terrorism publication, inwards the 5 years later 2012, worldwide terrorism-related attacks increased past times 64 percentage together with associated fatalities past times to a greater extent than than 130 percentage although absolute numbers thankfully leveled off inwards 2015 together with 2016.3 This has occurred despite the otherwise effective activity that the U.S.A. together with our partners roughly the Earth cause got taken against our terrorist adversaries.
Here at home, the FBI is inwards some phase of investigating at to the lowest degree 1,000 homegrown tearing extremists, inspired or connected inwards some way to international terrorist ideologies, inwards communities across all l states.4 The homegrown tearing extremist (HVE) population inwards the U.S.A. has expanded significantly since 2014, together with an unprecedented publish of people are radicalizing together with mobilizing to violence inwards response to ISIS’ rise. We are at nowadays seeing to a greater extent than together with to a greater extent than minors—some equally immature equally 12—becoming to a greater extent than radicalized together with involved inwards active plotting.5 Although nosotros cause got seen a drib inwards actual HVE attacks during the past times 2 years, the scope, scale, together with trajectory of this challenge should stay really worrisome for us all.6
Where We are Now
Today, the U.S.A. finds itself simultaneously confronted with both a render to nation-state strategic rival (e.g. Russia, Cathay together with beyond) inwards improver to the large international together with domestic terrorism challenge nosotros cause got faced since 9/11.7 Not surprisingly, this is forcing us toward choices over priorities, resources, together with risks that are both complex together with strategically consequential. America is increasingly challenged to effectively bargain with terrorist threats without the luxury of having CT last our entire strategic focus.
For example, the U.S.A. is approaching an inflection signal inwards its struggle against ISIS. While the U.S.A. together with The Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS cause got waged a highly successful armed services drive against ISIS’ geographic caliphate together with its associated armed services arm inwards the Levant, large numbers of their fighters all the same stay there, together with to a greater extent than importantly, ISIS’ globally distributed network has drib dead capable of planning, resourcing, coordinating, and/or inspiring terrorist attacks inwards every hemisphere.8
Meanwhile, ISIS is today a malign “innovator” with terrorists everywhere inwards demonstrating the pregnant advantages to last gained past times incorporating technological advances. One illustration is ISIS’ extraordinarily effective occupation of the meshwork to promote radicalization together with mobilization-to-violence inwards ways that cause got added thousands of adherents to its global ranks. Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 minute illustration has been ISIS’ efforts to weaponize together with effectively employ affordable together with commercially available applied scientific discipline such equally unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) into devices that tin give notice both heighten or fifty-fifty deport terrorist attacks.9 We should non last surprised that terrorists volition seek to cause got wages of the relentless measuring of technological change.
Where We Should Go
The U.S.A. has extraordinary strengths together with capabilities inwards dealing with terrorism. However, inwards a apace accelerating Earth that increasingly provides to a greater extent than powerful tools for both skilful together with bad actors alike, nosotros should stay mindful of Abraham Lincoln’s 1862 exhortation:
The dogmas of the placidity past, are inadequate to the stormy present. The occasion is piled high with difficulty, together with nosotros must rising with the occasion. As our instance is new, so nosotros must recollect anew together with deed anew.
This is non to advise nosotros should abandon the tools or techniques that cause got served us so good since 9/11; many of which were the fruits of experimentation, lessons learned, together with bully American courage over years of toil, investment, together with fifty-fifty straightaway combat against terrorism inwards its diverse guises. However, nosotros cause got already learned that these impressive strengths cause got non achieved a durable reduction inwards the international or domestic range together with scale of terrorism thence far.
Therefore, nosotros should to a greater extent than seriously examine the enquiry of what capabilities nosotros should at nowadays invest inwards to hit such durable outcomes; peculiarly equally nosotros must devote to a greater extent than of our strategic attending together with resources to other national safety challenges. The answers prevarication within what tin give notice last imperfectly described equally “non-kinetic counterterrorism.” Examples are efforts to combat recruiting online, forbid the creation of to a greater extent than terrorists, or frustrate terrorists’ mightiness to move or garner revenue.
While nosotros should hold our already formidable capability to assault together with disrupt terrorist activities, terrorists cause got expanded their laissez passer on together with networks into environments together with locations, both internationally together with domestically, where the occupation of kinetic CT approaches volition last unwelcome, inappropriate, and/or counterproductive. Inevitably, nosotros volition cause got to increasingly rely on forms of CT that produce non involve the occupation of physical force, kinetic action, or fifty-fifty police enforcement arrest; though these volition stay necessary to some degree.
Furthermore, if nosotros tin give notice brand ourselves stronger together with to a greater extent than effective inwards non-kinetically contesting the “drivers” of terrorist movements, nosotros would probable discovery that nosotros could both hit the durable outcomes nosotros seek, together with that non-kinetic CT activities are far to a greater extent than economical than the large costs typically associated with kinetic CT action.
This is non to advise nosotros must lavish equivalent financial or manpower investment on non-kinetic forms of CT on the scale of what nosotros cause got invested into kinetic efforts. The organizations, both governmental together with non-governmental, that currently strive to forbid or rival terrorism through non-kinetic agency possess neither the absorptive capacity nor, inwards some cases, the proven methodologies today that could justify such a massive investment approach. Furthermore, the U.S.A. together with many partner governments cause got learned they must last really thoughtful inwards how they back upwardly or fund non-kinetic programs such equally terrorism prevention or messaging/countermessaging, especially with honour to our obligations to ensure civil together with human rights, personal privacy, political freedoms, together with liberty of commerce.
Nonetheless, both within our ain the world together with across the international community—we demand a much to a greater extent than vibrant give-and-take virtually the marking to which nosotros are willing together with able to increment our investments inwards damage of financial resources, manpower, together with genuine policy back upwardly for becoming to a greater extent than effective inwards at to the lowest degree 5 non-kinetic counterterrorism efforts:
1. Preventing terrorism—also referred equally countering tearing extremism (CVE)—by assisting local communities, schools, police enforcement, together with families inwards identifying those most vulnerable to terrorist recruitment together with enabling local actors to either forbid or “off-ramp” these individuals or groups past times education them how to address their needs or grievances without resorting to violence.
2. Countering or contesting terrorist ideologies, peculiarly inwards the arena of offering to a greater extent than attractive positive alternatives to their poisonous ideas, spell retaining our efforts to critique together with expose the terrorist narrative.
3. Countering or contesting terrorist occupation of the internet, both equally a global together with increasingly secure command-and-control system, together with equally an increasingly powerful radicalization together with recruitment instrument.
4. Denying terrorists the resources they require to operate together with deport their malign activities. This goes beyond denying traditional terrorist financing, together with should include frustrating their access to non-traditional forms of revenue (e.g. crypto-currency), apace evolving techology (e.g. UAS), together with increasingly powerful fabrication technologies (e.g. 3-D printing).
5. Preventing terrorist travel, both domestically together with internationally. ISIS lonely has inspired the move of tens of thousands of unusual terrorist fighters across several regions, together with the ease together with convenience of international move continues to rise. Nonetheless, the U.S.A. together with international community must observe pathways toward to a greater extent than effectively denying terrorist move without hindering the commercial prosperity or private liberty that legitimate move affords.10
It is of import to admit that many roughly the Earth strive to succeed inwards these arenas today. Both inwards the U.S.A. together with roughly the world, thousands of extraordinary, dedicated people from across many agencies, across civil society, together with within manufacture (e.g. the telecommunication together with social media industry) are striving to contribute inwards diverse ways to all 5 of these areas today, together with cause got achieved some pregnant successes. Unfortunately, the collective range together with scale of these are insufficient today, they almost universally endure from pregnant resources shortfalls, and—perhaps most importantly—they would produce goodness from the constant together with durable policy back upwardly that kinetic CT approaches bask today.
Regarding policy support, it is of import to recognize that during the past times 17 years, kinetic CT actions against terrorists together with their plots cause got experienced brilliant together with substantial policy support. Not everything nosotros attempted to produce inwards locating or att
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