The Issue
Arab Gulf states are intervening to a greater extent than assertively inward sub-Saharan Africa to capitalize on economical opportunities in addition to protect their safety interests.
They sentiment Africa equally a relatively uncontested arena inward which they tin experiment with unusual interventions equally business office of their strategy to show their rising condition on the globe stage.
The impact of Gulf states’ rivalries inward Africa is becoming increasingly damaging, equally their zero-sum rivalry has provoked retaliations, which bring dangerously destabilized vulnerable parts of Africa, such equally during the fallout to the GCC crisis.
When the border dispute betwixt Eritrea in addition to Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia descended into bloody conflict inward 1998, few could bring predicted where a peace understanding would live signed around 20 years later. On September 16, 2018, the Eritrean in addition to Ethiopian leaders at at desks facing ane around other inward the oculus of a lavish hall inward the Peace Palace inward Jeddah. Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 huge portrait of Abdulaziz, Saudi Arabia’s showtime king, loomed over them. King Salman bin Abdulaziz sat underneath, with Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman in addition to the secretarial assistant full general of the UN Antonio Guterres on either side. The optics were clear: It was nether Saudi sponsorship that decades of conflict ended. The bargain would live known equally the “Jeddah Peace Agreement.”1
The Jeddah Peace Agreement is the latest illustration of Arab Gulf states’ increasingly assertive interventions inward sub-Saharan Africa. Although the Arabian Peninsula shares historic religious, economic, in addition to linguistic links with parts of sub-Saharan Africa, Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states bring speedily deepened their economical in addition to safety ties across the African continent inward the in conclusion decade, in addition to a growing diplomatic operate has followed. Gulf states are seeking to demonstrate their condition on the globe phase past times acting equally powerbrokers inward African conflicts, in addition to they bring also attempted to secure the backing of African states inward their ain disputes. As they fix to play a to a greater extent than important operate on the globe stage, GCC states bring come upwards to sentiment sub-Saharan Africa equally a laboratory inward which they tin essay out to a greater extent than assertive international interventions.
Africa’s Economic Promise
Although Gulf Arabs bring traded with Africans for centuries, the global fiscal crisis from 2007 to 2008 motivated GCC states to deepen their economical ties with Africa. With economies inward the West slowing down, Africa’s fast-growing economies in addition to expanding oculus classes became an increasingly attractive prospect for investors across the world. But iii other key factors prompted GCC states to plow to Africa. Building economical ties inward Africa helped Gulf states capitalize on their geostrategic location, increment their nutrient security, in addition to heighten their reputation equally benevolent Muslim actors. Expanding their economical influence inward Africa has provided GCC states with their most of import rootage of leverage to advance their safety in addition to diplomatic goals.
GCC states bring advanced their strategies of economical diversification in addition to reduced reliance on crude oil past times investing inward African markets, which became fifty-fifty to a greater extent than critical when crude oil prices crashed inward 2014. The UAE invested an estimated $11 billion inward upper-case missive of the alphabet inward Africa inward 2016, overtaking Kingdom of Saudi Arabia to larn the largest GCC investor in addition to the minute largest inward the globe after China.2 Gulf companies’ expertise inward the loose energy sector makes them peculiarly attractive to African states seeking to develop their loose energy industries, in addition to Kingdom of Saudi Arabia of late announced a $10 billion investment inward South Africa’s loose energy sector.3 Meanwhile, Gulf states’ mightiness to execute large-scale infrastructure projects is also appealing to rapidly-developing African states. Dubai’s DP World announced an initial $50 1000000 investment inward an inland logistics facility inward Republic of Mali inward July 2018, complementing larger infrastructure investments inward West Africa such equally the Dakar port in addition to economical zone. Qatar also signed a $4 billion bargain to deal a Red Sea port with Sudan inward March 2018.4
Building economical ties inward Africa helped Gulf states capitalize on their geostrategic location, increment their nutrient security, in addition to heighten their reputation equally benevolent Muslim actors.
The Gulf’s geostrategic location also explains why Africa has been a focus of GCC states’ economical activity. By focusing on infrastructure evolution in addition to trade, GCC states are able to exercise goodness from Asian merchandise in addition to investment flows to Africa, which dwarf their ain figures. mainland People's Republic of China pledged $60 billion inward financing to Africa inward 2018 lone in addition to increased its total merchandise with Africa past times 180 percentage from 2010 to 2017.5 The UAE has leveraged its superior transportation in addition to port infrastructure to plug into this potential, becoming the largest GCC trader with Africa. The UAE imported roughly $5 billion of goods from Africa each twelvemonth from 2010 to 2015, earlier increasing its imports substantially to $23.9 billion inward 2016.6Africa’s growing importance to Emirati merchandise is apparent from an exam of its imports. As a portion of the UAE’s total imports, those from Africa quadrupled inward the in conclusion vi years.7
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman talks with the president of Senegal Macky Sall during the Future Investment Initiative conference, nicknamed “Davos inward the desert,” inward the Saudi upper-case missive of the alphabet Riyadh on Oct 24, 2018. GIUSEPPE CACACE/AFP/Getty Images Gulf states also identified investing inward Africa equally a agency to attain nutrient security. Saudi Arabia’s attempts to make its ain nutrient stumbled a decade ago, in addition to it has since embarked on a novel nutrient safety strategy. Gulf states considered agricultural investments inward Central Asia in addition to Latin America but determined that Africa’s rich in addition to underdeveloped agricultural lands held the greatest promise.8 Africa’s geographic proximity to the Gulf was an advantage; it contains lx percentage of the world’s total uncultivated arable lands; in addition to its H2O shortages were deemed surmountable with appropriate investments.9 Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is the travel past times investor inward agriculture inward Africa, conducting largescale investments such equally its buy of 500,000 hectares of reason inward Tanzania inward 2009.10 For Qatar, the most subject of Gulf states on nutrient imports, the 2017 intra-GCC dispute added novel urgency to its bespeak for nutrient safety equally it relied heavily on nutrient imports from its Gulf neighbors. The Qatari authorities announced plans inward 2018 to invest one-half a billion dollars inward Sudan’s agricultural in addition to nutrient sectors.11 However, Gulf states’ agricultural investments inward Africa are non without controversy, equally around of the states they leased reason from struggle to make plenty nutrient to feed their ain populations. When Qatar entered into talks with Republic of Kenya inward 2009 to lease 40,000 hectares of reason inward the Tana Delta, it was met with trigger-happy local opposition.12
GCC states bring also strengthened aid ties with diverse African states, largely motivated past times their shared religious heritage. As good equally GCC states’ generous donations to humanitarian appeals inward the Horn of Africa, numerous Gulf charities bring operated throughout Africa since the 1980s.13 The Saudi International Islamic Relief Organization (IIRO) in addition to the Kuwaiti African Muslims Agency (AMA) were with the showtime state-sponsored Islamic charities to piece of job inward Africa. As good equally their humanitarian objectives, Gulf Islamic organizations also play a missionary role, in addition to many of their activities are influenced past times Islam.14 Gulf charities targeted sub-Saharan Africa’s many Sufi orders to “re-educate” them according to their salafi cast of Islam, in addition to they also attempted to convert non-Muslims.15Alarmed past times the spread of Wahhabi Islam inward Africa, Libya’s erstwhile dictator Muammar Gaddafi created the World Islamic Call Society to compete with Gulf charities inward Africa in addition to preach a Sufi-influenced version of Islam.16
The global state of war on terror inward the early on twenty-first century forced many Islamic charities to curtail their activities abroad after beingness defendant of supporting terrorism, in addition to it was non until the global fiscal crisis inward 2008 that novel openings inward Africa emerged.17 When economies slowed inward the West, around African leaders approached GCC states for economical assistance because of their wealth in addition to religious ties. President Wade of Senegal actively strengthened ties with GCC states when he was inward mightiness from 2000 to 2012, emphasizing Senegal’s shared religious heritage with Gulf states past times playing a prominent operate inward the Organization of Islamic Cooperation.18 Expanding charitable activities inward Africa serves to bolster GCC states’ reputations with Muslims inward Africa in addition to elsewhere equally they are able to acquaint themselves equally beneficent actors that pursue philanthropic goals equally good equally their ain economical interests inward Africa.
The Qatari international NGO Qatar Charity distributes nutrient to internally displaced people (IDPs) inward Mogadishu, Somalia, on May 22, 2018. MOHAMED ABDIWAHAB/AFP/Getty Images Migrant labor networks are around other of import chemical factor of the economical human relationship betwixt GCC states in addition to sub-Saharan Africa. Many migrant workers from the Horn of Africa render GCC states with cheap, unskilled labor. Although GCC states exercise non release detailed information on the migrant communities they host, Sudanese, Ethiopians, in addition to Eritreans are idea to live the largest communities. The UN estimated that 540,000 Sudanese lived inward GCC states inward 2015, roughly a 3rd of the entire Sudanese diaspora.19Half a 1000000 Ethiopians in addition to 100,000 Eritreans are believed to piece of job inward Saudi Arabia, piece over 100,000 Ethiopians piece of job inward the UAE.20 Africans are non the largest migrant communities inward GCC states, but their remittance flows are a critical rootage of income for countries inward the Horn of Africa, pregnant they stand upwards for an of import rootage of GCC states’ economical influence inward Africa.
Expanding Security Interests
As their economical interests inward Africa bring grown, Gulf states bring also expanded their safety presence. As good equally supporting anti-piracy efforts inward waters off Somalia, Gulf states bring enhanced their armed forces projection capabilities past times edifice their showtime overseas bases inward the Horn of Africa. They bring also increased their armed forces cooperation with African states in addition to play a to a greater extent than prominent operate inward international counterterrorism operations across Africa. The expansion of Gulf states’ safety influence inward Africa has been possible thank yous to their mightiness to wield their growing economical power.
Gulf states’ safety interventions inward Africa bring been principally motivated past times threats emanating from the Horn of Africa. In the 1970s, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia joined Egypt, Morocco, Iran, in addition to French Republic to constitute an informal tidings alliance known equally the “Safari Club” to counter the spread of communism inward Africa.21 Kingdom of Saudi Arabia perceived communism equally a potential armed forces in addition to ideological threat, beingness peculiarly alarmed past times Soviet in addition to Cuban armed forces intervention inward Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia in addition to the spread of Marxist liberation movements to a greater extent than broadly. More recently, the UAE controversially provided an initial grant of $50 1000000 to back upwards mercenaries inward Puntland, Somalia, to defend its merchandise routes in addition to deal piracy inward waters off the Horn of Africa inward 2010.22
The state of war inward Republic of Yemen heightened Saudi Arabia’s in addition to the UAE’s safety interests inward East Africa, shown past times the fact that they built their showtime overseas armed forces bases inward the Horn of Africa to heighten their mightiness projection capabilities. The 2 countries initially planned to usage Republic of Djibouti equally a base of operations for their operations inward Yemen, but a diplomatic spat inward 2015 resulted inward Republic of Djibouti evicting GCC troops from the base.23 The UAE in addition to hence turned to the Eritrean deep-water port of Assab in addition to built upwards its armed forces infrastructure considerably inward render for developing the port for Eritrea’s use. Assab at ane time serves equally the UAE’s principal logistics hub for Republic of Yemen operations, hosting helicopters, jets, drones, in addition to naval vessels. The UAE started to construct a minute base of operations inward Berbera, Somaliland, inward 2017, following to the port which DP World is developing equally business office of a $442 1000000 deal.24 Kingdom of Saudi Arabia finalized a bargain to construct its showtime overseas armed forces base of operations inward Republic of Djibouti inward 2017, similarly aiming to protect its strategic interests inward the Red Sea in addition to the Horn of Africa.25
Gulf states bring also worked to construct armed forces partnerships in addition to tidings sharing relationships with African countries, ofttimes offering economical incentives inward return. Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in addition to the UAE bring recruited African forces to back upwards their operations inward Republic of Yemen equally business office of this approach. Kingdom of Saudi Arabia deposited $1 billion inward Sudan’s fundamental banking concern before long after it contributed to a greater extent than than a m troops to the deal inward Republic of Yemen inward 2015.26 In 2018, a calendar week after Sudanese Defense Minister Ali Ahmed Salim reviewed Sudan’s participation inward the Republic of Yemen conflict, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in addition to Sudan signed a lay out of defence in addition to economical cooperation agreements, resulting inward Kingdom of Saudi Arabia promising to a greater extent than investment.27
Gulf states bring increased their commitments to peacekeeping in addition to counterterrorism operations inward the Horn of Africa inward recent years. Qatar deployed peacekeepers to the border betwixt Eritrea in addition to Republic of Djibouti for around a decade, starting inward 2008, but Gulf states bring shown the most consistent involvement fighting extremism inward Somalia. As business office of an African Union armed forces mission to defeat an Islamist insurgency, the UAE trained in addition to equipped hundreds of somali troops from 2014 to 2018.28 When Kingdom of Saudi Arabia launched the Islamic Military Counterterrorism Coalition (IMCTC) inward 2016, it announced it would render Somalia with capacity-building back upwards in addition to preparation equally ane of its showtime steps.29 The IMCTC has enhanced armed forces cooperation in addition to tidings sharing betwixt GCC in addition to sub-Saharan African states significantly, equally all GCC states participate inward the coalition in addition to over one-half of its 41 fellow member countries are sub-Saharan African states.30
But GCC states bring also contributed to counterterrorism efforts inward areas of significantly less strategic importance than the Horn of Africa. In 2017, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in addition to the UAE pledged $118 1000000 in addition to $35.4 1000000 respectively to a counterterrorism strength inward West Africa’s Sahel region. Playing a to a greater extent than prominent operate inward counterterrorism inward West Africa appears largely motivated past times Gulf states’ wish to heighten their international reputation equally serious partners inward the deal against extremism, a policy repeatedly advocated past times President Trump.31 As such, GCC states’ safety interventions inward Africa bring been motivated past times a wish to protect economical interests, heighten their mightiness projection capabilities, in addition to also to improve their international reputation.
Playing a to a greater extent than prominent operate inward counterterrorism inward West Africa appears largely motivated past times Gulf states’ wish to heighten their international reputation equally serious partners inward the deal against extremism.
Bolstering Diplomatic Credentials
GCC states bring expanded their diplomatic ties with sub-Saharan African states to bolster their growing economical in addition to safety interests, piece also advancing their ambitions to play a to a greater extent than prominent operate inward international unusual policy. Gulf states bring opened dozens of novel embassies across sub-Saharan Africa inward recent years in addition to bring made assertive diplomatic interventions inward African conflicts. The perception of the United States’ withdrawal from the part has partially motivated these interventions. Mediating conflicts is a key chemical factor of GCC states’ aim to increment their international prestige, in addition to their perceived neutrality in addition to mightiness to deploy substantial economical incentives to bolster peace agreements has afforded them around notable successes where others bring failed.
In recent years, Qatar has opened the largest lay out of embassies inward sub-Saharan Africa of whatever nation other than Turkey. Qatar built xi novel embassies betwixt 2013 in addition to 2015 piece the UAE, Saudi Arabia, in addition to State of Kuwait opened nine, six, in addition to 2 respectively betwixt 2010 in addition to 2018.32 The UAE has announced plans to opened upwards embassies inward Cote d’Ivoire in addition to Republic of Mauritius inward 2019, piece Qatar also plans to opened upwards to a greater extent than embassies inward sub-Saharan Africa inward the nigh future.33 As good equally the benefits of upgraded diplomatic relations, establishing embassies allows Gulf states to improve protect their economical in addition to safety interests in addition to coordinate policy to a greater extent than effectively. Prominent Gulf officials bring also made an increasing lay out of official visits to sub-Saharan Africa in addition to GCC states bring hosted African dignitaries inward recent times. Saudi unusual government minister Adel al-Jubeir of late conducted eighteen shuttle visits to Africa.34
Abu Dhabi's Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan receives Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed (L) in addition to Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki (R) at the presidential palace inward Abu Dhabi on July 24, 2018. The 2018 Jeddah Peace Agreement betwixt Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia in addition to Eritrea is Gulf states’ most recent mediation success, but they bring facilitated peace negotiations inward sub-Saharan Africa for to a greater extent than than a decade. As good equally aiming to cease bloodshed in addition to instability, GCC states bring engaged inward peace negotiations to bolster their international prestige (as states bring done throughout history), to gain influence inward strategic locations, in addition to to create novel economical opportunities.35 Shortly after Qatar negotiated a ceasefire betwixt the Sudanese authorities in addition to the largest opposition grouping inward Darfur, the Justice in addition to Equality Movement, it bought swathes of agricultural reason inward Sudan to improve its nutrient security.36
Part of GCC states’ success inward mediation is a resultant of their mightiness to offering important economical incentives. When Sudan in addition to Republic of Chad signed a reconciliation bargain to stabilize Darfur in addition to neighboring areas of Republic of Chad inward Kingdom of Saudi Arabia inward 2007, the Sudanese government minister of nation for unusual relations said that Kingdom of Saudi Arabia had promised to “help Sudan in addition to Muslims everywhere,” hinting at promises of fiscal assistance without providing details.37 Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in addition to the UAE of late pledged large aid in addition to investment packages to Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia in addition to Eritrea piece mediating an cease to the 20-year conflict. The UAE announced it would render a total of $3 billion inward aid in addition to investment to Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia inward June 2018 in addition to unveiled plans to construct an crude oil pipeline betwixt Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia in addition to Eritrea before long thereafter.38
The perception that Gulf states are relatively neutral inward African conflicts has bolstered their success inward mediation. They exercise non send the weight of the legacy of European colonialism, for example. The UAE maintained ties with Eritrea when it was isolated past times the international community, bolstering its picture equally a balanced negotiator betwixt Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia in addition to Eritrea. Qatar has strived to develop a reputation equally an honest in addition to reliable powerbroker past times mediating diverse conflicts across the Middle East in addition to Africa in addition to has played a prominent operate inward negotiations betwixt Eritrea in addition to Sudan, Republic of Chad in addition to Sudan, in addition to Eritrea in addition to Djibouti. However, around of these mediation attempts bring failed to attain lasting peace resolutions because of its express mightiness projection capabilities, a lack of professional person personnel on the ground, in addition to a broader lack of sense of mediating highly complex conflicts.39
The perception that Gulf states are relatively neutral inward African conflicts has bolstered their success inward mediation.
The Opportunities, Risks, in addition to Limits of GCC influence
Gulf states bring leveraged their growing economic, security, in addition to diplomatic influence inward sub-Saharan Africa to force dorsum on their rivals’ influence in addition to gain international backing inward their ain disputes. They bring promised aid in addition to investment, offered to heighten safety cooperation, in addition to fifty-fifty agreed to improve African migrants’ rights inward GCC states to encourage sub-Saharan African states to give them diplomatic support. Gulf states successfully used these tools of influence to convince African states to downgrade their ties with Iran, thereby containing Iran’s presence inward the Horn of Africa. But African states bring been most significantly affected past times the fallout of the 2017 intra-GCC dispute, equally it highlighted the risks in addition to opportunities created past times Gulf states’ zero-sum rivalry. The Gulf crisis also revealed limits to GCC states’ influence, showing that they bring non silent managed to attain the loyalty of most African states.
Saudi Arabia has long sought to comprise Iran’s in
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