The backdrop: a safety rivalry betwixt Republic of Republic of India as well as Islamic Republic of Pakistan inwards house since the 1947 partitioning of British India. The risk: nuclear catastrophe. Because the consequences of such an final result are as well as so dire, fifty-fifty the pocket-size run a jeopardy of a nuclear conflict is worth trying to minimize. This written report assesses whether satellite imagery as well as remote sensing technology, administered yesteryear a trusted 3rd party, could relaxation the pressures as well as thence lessen the jeopardy of disaster on the subcontinent.
Summary
Structural political as well as safety factors generate persistent safety contest on the South Asian subcontinent.
This contest inwards plow creates a pocket-size but difficult-to-close window for nuclear catastrophe.
However unlikely, deployment of tactical nuclear weapons tin give notice opened upward the door to inadvertent escalation or unauthorized usage or theft. Any of these outcomes would survive a catastrophe for the portion as well as the world.
The jeopardy of catastrophe, though low, is to a greater extent than probable to grow than shrink inwards the brusk term. Indian political discourse close using conventional forces to punish Islamic Republic of Pakistan if necessary has sharpened. Growing disparities betwixt Republic of Republic of India as well as Islamic Republic of Pakistan volition exacerbate the flat to which Islamic Republic of Pakistan perceives a threat from India.
The U.S.A. piece of occupation inwards Southern Asia every bit an honest broker may survive jeopardized yesteryear its estrangement from Islamic Republic of Pakistan as well as growing human relationship alongside India.
Traditional confidence-building measures accept non generated plenty goodwill to relaxation safety contest betwixt the 2 countries.
Technological advances inwards commercially available imagery are a potential avenue for reducing nuclear risk. Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 handful of proposals inwards the belatedly 1990s as well as early on 2000s suggested a cooperative aerial monitoring agreement.
These proposals argued that such an arrangement would laid confidence, lower the chances of inadvertent escalation, as well as decrease Pakistani incentives to deploy weapons inwards ways that endangered regional security.
This written report examines U.S. concerns regarding India-Pakistan safety contest as well as assesses whether novel as well as emerging engineering scientific discipline could mitigate the risks of inadvertent escalation or the unauthorized usage or theft of nuclear materials on the subcontinent. It is supported yesteryear the Asia Center at the U.S.A. Institute of Peace. The analysis as well as persuasion expressed are those of the writer as well as produce non reverberate the official policy or lay of the tidings community, Department of Defense, Department of State, or the U.S. Government.
Jay Wise was a Jennings Randolph Senior Fellow at USIP. Before that, he served every bit managing director for Islamic Republic of Pakistan at the National Security Council, worked for the Department of Defense on Transitional Islamic State of Afghanistan as well as Islamic Republic of Pakistan as well as counterterrorism issues, served every bit a managing director for Islamic Republic of Pakistan inwards the Office of the Secretary of Defense, as well as was deployed several times for the Department of Defense, including most of late to Transitional Islamic State of Afghanistan every bit a senior advisor inwards 2014–15. He is currently employed at the State Department.
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