By JAMES STAVRIDIS
Tom Clancyis back” experience to it.
I’ve been purpose of these exercises for decades, dating dorsum to the peak of the Cold War. The militaries on both sides accept these events alongside the utmost seriousness — planes send actual alive ordnance, troops are dropped into icy waters to tempest beaches, ships burn alive missiles against maneuvering targets. As a commander, you lot sit down inward a darkened command amount 24/7 watching blips on a radar shroud representing enemy moves — it becomes really slow to autumn into the musical rhythm of war. The costs are high in addition to the risks are really real. And the chances for miscalculation past times 1 side or the other, resulting inward an incident that provokes a existent escalation, is significant. Russian Federation is already reacting badly, harshly criticizing the events, in addition to insisting they volition retaliate both alongside to a greater extent than exercises in addition to newer weapons systems.
So why is NATO expending these resources in addition to taking these risks?
First, in addition to most obviously, these exercises are an chance for the NATO in addition to partner militaries to precisely practise the fine art of war. If nosotros do destination upwards inward combat inward Europe, our forces volition get got to live able to run seamlessly together inward demanding circumstances — to counter cyber attacks, high-tech weapons, internal geographic put in addition to the payoff that a single-nation enemy would plough over from a unitary command structure. To overcome those obstacles volition require non exclusively creature forcefulness but also well-trained in addition to coordinated units fighting effectively together. Practice makes if non perfect at to the lowest degree really good.
Second, the Alliance sees the state of war games every bit crucial to deter farther aggressive lead from Russian Federation inward the wake of the invasion of Ukraine, annexation of Crimea in addition to ongoing cyber attacks. As Admiral Foggo in addition to I sat overlooking the Bay of Naples inward the run-up to the exercises, it was clear he saw these vast wargames every bit an appropriate reply to an aggressive in addition to resurgent Russian Federation. The Secretary General of NATO, one-time Norwegian Prime Minister Jens Stoltenberg, agrees. Both are quick to indicate out these exercises are defensive inward nature, but — Admiral Foggo late said — “if Russian Federation challenges us, nosotros volition respond.” He is correct to live concerned almost Russian action to a greater extent than or less the periphery of the Alliance, in addition to it is non difficult to take away heed the old ghosts of the Cold War rattling inward the winds off the Baltic Sea.
Third, the exercises autumn on the heels of a far larger Russian state of war game (albeit on its eastern border), alongside over 300,000 troops — half dozen times larger than NATO’s electrical flow state of war game. Russian Federation has also been conducting a serial of offensively construction exercises to a greater extent than or less its periphery over the past times half dozen years. They get got late been operating warships in addition to aircraft really aggressively, oft penetrating Alliance airspace in addition to confronting NATO warships at sea. All of this has rattled the NATO nations inward the east, peculiarly the vulnerable Baltics, in addition to Trident Juncture is seen every bit a reply to Russian state of war machine posturing.
Finally, the ongoing militarization of the vital Kaliningrad enclave inward northward fundamental Europe is deeply worrisome to NATO. Perhaps the most strategic spell of territory inward western Europe, Kaliningrad is a Russian Oblast (essentially a solid ground of the Russian Federation) sandwiched betwixt Poland in addition to Republic of Lithuania on the Baltic Sea. Russian Federation is improving airfields, constructing novel ammunition bunkers, edifice nuclear weapons facilities in addition to mostly preparing to select fifty-fifty to a greater extent than unsafe in addition to destabilizing surface-to-surface cruise in addition to ballistic missiles to the area. This is a violation of the Intermediate Nuclear Force Treaty, every bit Washington sees it, which has purpose of the argue why the States of America inward supply has threatened to push clit out of that arms-control agreement. Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 novel arms race is almost to unfold inward Europe, much to the discomfort of our allies.
Taken together, these are audio reasons for NATO to (practice) going to war. But it is no one’s involvement to stumble backwards into some other full-blown Cold War. After Trident Juncture is done, NATO should accept a deep breath in addition to come upwards up alongside a improve strategy for dealing alongside Russian Federation — something other than precisely asset huge, expensive state of war games. Such events are necessary, but non sufficient.
We postulate a innovation that includes pressuring Russian Federation to comply alongside the INF treaty earlier it’s likewise late, maintenance of economical sanctions levied subsequently the Ukraine invasion, a stronger counter-cyber capability for the Alliance, opened upwards military-to-military hotlines to trim down the chances of a miscalculation in addition to a re-energized NATO-Russia Council to trim down tensions. All of this is frustrating in addition to requires strategic patience; but it is improve than watching state of war games plough into a existent war. Having played the commander inward many of these exercises, I tin flame assure you lot a existent conflict is exclusively a moving-picture exhibit of a switch away.
Contact TIME Editors almost this storey at editors@time.com.
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