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As the land reflected on the centenary of the terminate of the First World War, the Telegraph's special correspondent Harry de Quetteville examined what global warfare volition hold off similar over the class of the side past times side 100 years.
As the land reflected on the centenary of the terminate of the First World War, the Telegraph's special correspondent Harry de Quetteville examined what global warfare volition hold off similar over the class of the side past times side 100 years. In the piece, he outlined the transformative technologies, including artificial intelligence, genomics too cyber warfare, that volition impact futurity global conflicts.
The far-reaching capabilities of these novel technologies had our readers taking to the comments department to offering their ain predictions too analysis. The implications of fully autonomous weapons on civilian every bit good every bit armed services targets too the threat posed past times increasingly sophisticated cyber attacks were amid the fundamental concerns of our readers.
Read on to meet a pick of the best reader comments on the futurity of state of war every bit good every bit additional commentary from Harry de Quetteville.
Increasing global populations
'So nosotros don't demand aircraft carriers, nosotros demand swarms of bees.'
What a fascinating article.
So nosotros don't demand aircraft carriers, nosotros demand swarms of bees. That is such an interesting concept.
There are also many people for the planet to sustain. Looks similar it could live rattling slowly to solve that work inward the non also distant future?
In response @Harry de Quetteville SPECIAL CORRESPONDENT TECHNOLOGY replied
You volition receive got noticed that the global nascency rates are inward steep decline. And that applied scientific discipline has made mincemeat of Malthus.
'Wars, unless at sea or inward space, are going to receive got dire consequences for non-combatants'
Fascinating. One indicate non mentioned is the sheer release of humans on the planet now. In the past, a large state of war hardly affected the full general population fifty-fifty it changed the authorities too political direction of a large country.
With Communist People's Republic of China straightaway on the globe phase too the massive growth inward population wars, unless at sea or inward space, are going to receive got dire consequences for non-combatants.
Massacres are beingness used to destabilise other non-combatant countries amongst refugees every bit good every bit alter their ain ideological makeup.
I tin give the sack easily meet this strategy beingness used amongst novel automatic weapons inward all spheres of war. Machine / AI tidings volition receive got to live modified inward but about way to halt it.
'Disrupting provide lines volition play havoc amongst vulnerable international trade'
Disrupting provide lines volition play havoc amongst vulnerable international merchandise too ever to a greater extent than delicate provide chains - given the planet is grotesquely over-populated, it's hard to meet why it wouldn't.
Biological too chemic warfare
'The futurity of full-scale state of war shall probable live biological'
The futurity of full-scale state of war shall probable live biological.
Not necessarily to a greater extent than bloody but to a greater extent than lethal.
A homecoming to start strike doctrine
'Disruption past times cyber attacks volition live the most probable agency of war'
Very interesting piece. It does appear most probable that disruption past times cyber attacks or hacking of all services simultaneously volition live the most probable agency of war. Nations volition wake upward to notice themselves of banking, of identity, of proof of abode ownership, of medical means, of electricity too food, volition plow on themselves for survival too so live powerless against a forcefulness which had retained these capabilities. The start to strike is the probable winner.
In response @Harry de Quetteville SPECIAL CORRESPONDENT TECHNOLOGY replied
You're correct that start strike is discussed i time to a greater extent than inward serious price for non-near peer rivals. If Trump talks well-nigh a state of war on Democratic People's South Korea it's because he seriously believes he tin give the sack find, target too destroy Kim's express arsenal. So it's possible that nuclear weapons don't provide dictators amongst the safety they used to. As for cyber attacks, it seems inconceivable today that whatsoever state of war betwixt major powers wouldn't commence without a major assail on systems every bit you lot describe.
Combatants versus non-combatants
'As weapons acquire smarter they volition acquire to a greater extent than discriminating too to a greater extent than able to kill exclusively combatants'
Ask whatsoever scientific discipline fiction author what the futurity of state of war volition hold off similar too you'll acquire but about pretty proficient guesses.
But recreating the scale of the bloodshed of the past times is non inward anyone's involvement and, every bit weapons acquire 'smarter' they may good acquire to a greater extent than discriminating too to a greater extent than able to kill exclusively combatants.
Non-combatants tin give the sack ever live set to but about utilization when the killing stops too are, therefore, non worth wasting ammunition on.
'Reducing the release of weapons operators does non hateful reducing casualties'
Harry de Quetteville ends past times asking....."Ultimately, however, when near-peer rivals which both had the machine gun faced each other across the trenches betwixt 1914-18, the casualties turned Gatling’s dream to a nightmare. Will AI follow the same trajectory?"
I'd state yes. Military applied scientific discipline implementation tends to practice to a greater extent than amongst less: peculiarly causing to a greater extent than casualties. Reducing the numbers of weapons operators does non hateful reducing casualties, it volition hateful increasing them every bit each operator tin give the sack motility to a greater extent than damage.
Want to receive got out a unmarried target inward a house? Bomb it amongst a precision munition directed from your abode country.
And if the contrary of trench warfare occurs, amongst soldiers nigh invisible inward environments, guerrilla-style, they'll demand to live constitute too weeded out. Casualties would live fifty-fifty worse amongst hastily trained conscripted troops thrown into the fray.
Warfare has progressively move to a greater extent than inhuman. WWI had at to the lowest degree the human chemical constituent betwixt England too FRG which the novel celluloid "They Shall Not Grow Old" shows.
'The civilian population too civilian infrastructure becomes the target'
If all armies operate technological too robotic warfare engaged too controlled remotely, where is the enemy? Who is the target? Answer - the civilian population too civilian infrastructure becomes the target - it has to live the target because in that location is cypher else to hit.
The RAF's novel drone - 'Protector'
Aircraft carrier vulnerability
'There is a noun example for aircraft carriers'
Much has been said well-nigh the vulnerability of the novel aircraft carriers. But to onslaught such a ship, start you lot receive got to notice it; the oceans are vast, far larger than most people envisage (70% of the world's surface).
Even during the Cold War, the U.S. could successfully 'hide' its supercarriers from Soviet reconnaissance submarines, aircraft too (radar, ELINT too photograph reconnaissance) satellites past times using a diversity of deception techniques every bit good every bit the weather.
A large carrier at sea tin give the sack live to a greater extent than hard to locate than a grain of sand inward a swimming pool. Bear inward heed that from whatsoever given point, a carrier forcefulness tin give the sack displace over 700 miles inward 24 hours, too inward whatsoever direction non constrained past times land; so it could live anywhere inside 1.5 1000000 foursquare miles.
And when you've constitute the carrier, you lot so receive got to deploy your anti-ship weapons against layered, defense inward depth. No send is invulnerable; but compared to carriers, the precise location of every armed services airfield inward the globe is known downward to the final metre.
This, then, is the noun example for aircraft carriers. However, their utility extends far beyond warfare; they receive got the organic resources to provide a rattling broad attain of humanitarian aid, e.g. fresh water, food, emergency shelter, sophisticated medical help and, vitally, elevator (helicopters) to provide such help ashore when port facilities are non-existent or receive got been destroyed.
The unmarried unit of measurement that provided all of this too much to a greater extent than to northern Republic of Indonesia later on the Asian seismic sea wave was an aircraft carrier - the USS Abraham Lincoln. I trust this volition inform farther debate.
In response @Harry de Quetteville SPECIAL CORRESPONDENT TECHNOLOGY replied
No uncertainty carriers receive got provided the 20th century's greatest strategic platforms for projection of power. And move along to practice so today. How long that volition final is a large question. Interestingly finding things - whether carriers or mo strike subs - is something that machine learning is uncommonly proficient at. Hiding is going to acquire a whole lot harder. That volition alter the game significantly.
'This raises questions well-nigh the value of edifice aircraft carriers for partisan reasons, non for defense requirements'
@Tom France
This raises questions well-nigh the value of Gordon Brown ordering 2 aircraft carriers to live built inward Scotland, of class for partisan reasons, non for defense requirements.
Was he advised well-nigh their vulnerability to drone swarm attacks or was this applied scientific discipline non yet invented?
In response @Harry de Quetteville SPECIAL CORRESPONDENT TECHNOLOGY replied
Military procurement is hard, so long are the evolution cycles which oft stretch to decades. Which is why harnessing civilian tech is so of import every bit it industrial plant so much faster. The most of import indicate - every bit you lot indicate out - is bias inward procurement for political non strategic aims. If AI takes a greater piece of work inward procurement that actually mightiness brand a departure to what our Armed Forces hold off similar - because it volition non live outflow past times tradition
Boots on the ground
'It is infrastructure, non low-value foot-soldiers that volition live targeted'
@Simon Coulter
It is infrastructure, command too control, non legions of - inward armed services price - low-value foot-soldiers that volition live targeted. Some of that tin give the sack tumble out completely remotely through cyber-warfare.
We volition non meet battlefield bloodshed of the form nosotros had inward WWI i time to a greater extent than inward a state of war involving modern armed services powers. Their big-ticket kit similar uppercase ships may show vulnerable to missiles too drones.
Looking at the horrible life-changing injuries nosotros receive got move aware of inward recent conflicts where our troops receive got served it has been age-old, fifty-fifty improvised, methods which receive got led to all those amputations. Putting men inward on the the world was non the answer.
'We haven't seen the terminate of the soldier inward the mud amongst a rifle too moisture feet but yet'
@Philip Griffin
Really proficient article too rattling interesting but forgot something important. Looking at peer to peer state of war game scenarios a lot of the fancy materials is lost rattling early on. I read i state of war game scenario amongst Russian Federation where nosotros lose all out F-35's inside 3 weeks at the most.
Technology is expensive too complicated to brand which makes it hard to stockpile too irksome to manufacture. H5N1 brusk state of war volition meet lots of fancy tech but a long war, lasting years, volition meet immature men storming trenches amongst fixed bayonets thinking themselves lucky if they're wearing a fleck of Kevlar.
And so there's ever electromagnetic pulse (EMP) tech that'll homecoming all electronics useless. Oh no, nosotros haven't seen the terminate of the solider inward the mud amongst a rifle too moisture feet but yet.
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