TONG ZHAO
China releases no official data well-nigh its nuclear weapons stockpile. However, according to open-source research, Communist People's Republic of China currently has fewer than 300 nuclear warheads.
China also has a broad arrive at of nuclear weapon delivery systems. These are to a greater extent than oft than non ballistic missiles of various ranges, which tin sack comport nuclear warheads to targets exactly about the world.
Unlike those of the US of America in addition to Russia, it is unremarkably believed that China’s nuclear weapons are kept inwards storage in addition to are non deployed on active warning inwards peacetime.
DOES CHINA HAVE MORE OR FEWER NUCLEAR WEAPONS THAN ITS PEERS?
China’s overall nuclear arsenal is at to the lowest degree x times smaller than those of the US of America or Russia. Washington in addition to Moscow each receive got exactly about 4,000 nuclear weapons inwards their arsenals, plus thousands to a greater extent than that are retired in addition to waiting to live dismantled.
China’s nuclear stockpile is of a similar scale to those of other medium-sized nuclear weapon states. It seems to live slightly smaller than that of France, which has well-nigh 300 warheads, but a fleck larger than that of the UK, which has well-nigh 215.
WHY DOES CHINA WANT MORE NUCLEAR WEAPONS IN THE FIRST PLACE?
China feels that the credibility of its existing nuclear deterrent is non strong enough.
In other words, Beijing is anxious that other countries are non completely convinced that, if they were to launch a preemptive boom against China’s nuclear weapons, Communist People's Republic of China would live able to boom dorsum in addition to destroy them.
IF CHINA ONLY NEEDS ENOUGH NUCLEAR WEAPONS TO SHOW information technology CAN DEFEND ITSELF, WHY DOES information technology WANT MORE?
As long equally at that topographic point is a decent jeopardy that some Chinese nuclear weapons could last a hypothetical hostile rootage boom in addition to live available for a Chinese counterstrike, Beijing’s deterrent would live credible enough.
The job is that many Chinese experts receive got started to worry that this second-strike credibility is eroding. They believe Communist People's Republic of China needs to a greater extent than in addition to amend nuclear weapons to demo that it could nevertheless boom dorsum if attacked.
Their fearfulness is mainly due to novel challenges from emerging non-nuclear technologies, such equally missile defense forcefulness in addition to conventional precision boom weapons.
Chinese experts worry that other countries’ conventional weapons are instantly sophisticated plenty to endanger Chinese nuclear weapons, if the other reason struck first.
And enemy missile defense forcefulness could larn far harder for Communist People's Republic of China to boom back. This is because whatsoever remaining Chinese nuclear missiles that survived a hypothetical rootage boom would risk beingness shot downwards earlier reaching their targets.
Worse, some U.S. experts receive got published research that says a rootage boom past times the US of America could potentially strip Communist People's Republic of China of whatsoever powerfulness to retaliate with nuclear weapons. In calorie-free of such research, Beijing is increasingly uneasy in addition to keen to brand its nuclear forces to a greater extent than robust, to a greater extent than diverse, in addition to to a greater extent than high-tech.
DOES CHINA WANT TO INCREASE THE SIZE OF ITS NUCLEAR ARSENAL OVERALL?
China’s principal destination is non to significantly growth its number of nuclear weapons.
Instead, Beijing wants to arm certainly submarines with nuclear warheads. The innovation is to diversify the construction of its nuclear forcefulness in addition to to brand certainly that each category of nuclear weapons would live equally survivable equally possible. Essentially, Communist People's Republic of China wants to avoid having all its eggs inwards i basket.
HOW MANY NUCLEAR SUBMARINES DOES CHINA WANT?
As a rule, Communist People's Republic of China would demand at to the lowest degree 4 nuclear-armed submarines to plough over i submarine deployable at all times. This is because the other 3 submarines would demand to undergo regular maintenance in addition to crew preparation or would live on their means to or from patrol areas.
By the same logic, if Beijing feels it needs to plough over at to the lowest degree ii nuclear-armed submarines constantly at sea to flora a credible deterrent, it would receive got to create at to the lowest degree 8 nuclear-armed submarines.
WHY DO MAINTENANCE AND REFUELING TAKE SO LONG?
Submarines demand frequent in addition to regular maintenance. In particular, refueling submarine reactors is a time-consuming, expensive process, which typically involves cutting the submarine open.
For example, i type of nuclear-armed submarine, the U.S. Ohio-class model, currently requires a four-year, mid-life overhaul, including a two-year refueling period. Future models of this detail U.S. submarine volition receive got a center that lasts equally long equally the send itself, but it is unlikely that Chinese submarines volition live in addition to so cutting-edge.
CAN CHINA JUST MOVE UNDERWATER SOME OF THE NUCLEAR WEAPONS information technology ALREADY HAS ON LAND?
No. These additional warheads cannot only come upward from the existing land-based missile force.
This is because land-based missiles are nevertheless the most of import ingredient of China’s nuclear deterrent. Even if Communist People's Republic of China uses the same type of warheads for its submarine-launched missiles, it cannot afford to risk undermining its land-based deterrent past times moving also many of those warheads out to sea.
WHY IS information technology Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 GOOD IDEA TO KEEP NUCLEAR WEAPONS UNDERWATER IN THE FIRST PLACE?
The mainstream stance is that putting nuclear weapons on submarines makes them to a greater extent than probable to last enemy detection in addition to attack. In most cases, it is harder for an enemy to give away in addition to runway submarines inwards the opened upward body of body of water than land-based missiles.
Submarine-launched missiles receive got some other benefit. They larn far hard for an enemy to predict where a missile boom may come upward from. This could larn far harder for the enemy to intercept the missiles.
DOES PUTTING NUCLEAR WEAPONS UNDERWATER MAKE THEM HARDER TO DEFEND?
It depends. The noisier a submarine is, the to a greater extent than vulnerable it is. That’s because enemy applied scientific discipline tin sack give away where submarines are past times the sounds they make. To create in addition to hold a tranquillity fleet requires advanced applied scientific discipline in addition to goodness operational experience. Beijing is nevertheless inwards the procedure of trying to accomplish these standards.
What’s more, putting nuclear weapons on submarines would hateful that Communist People's Republic of China is deploying its nuclear weapons exterior of its territory for the rootage time, making them to a greater extent than vulnerable to potential enemies.
HOW MIGHT OTHER COUNTRIES RESPOND TO CHINA GETTING MORE NUCLEAR SUBMARINES?
Other countries may encounter China’s growing nuclear submarine fleet equally business office of an endeavor to beef upward its nuclear forces in addition to to brand nuclear weapons a bigger business office of the country’s national safety strategy.
A novel Chinese submarine (Type 094a) that is capable of carrying nuclear warheads If they believe this to live the case, U.S. allies may rely to a greater extent than on the U.S. nuclear umbrella for their security. This commits the US of America to responding with a nuclear counterstrike if a competition were to launch a nuclear assail against i of its allies.
To protect its nuclear-armed submarines, Communist People's Republic of China needs to deploy massive general-purpose forces inwards its coastal waters to fend off enemy ships in addition to aircraft that could threaten them. Other countries may encounter this equally an aggressive Chinese motion to seek regional armed services dominance. Neighboring countries may growth their safety cooperation with the United States, in addition to alongside themselves, to counter the perceived growth of China’s sphere of influence.
WHAT MIGHT BE THE BROADER CONSEQUENCES?
A growing Chinese nuclear stockpile may brand the US of America in addition to Russian Federation to a greater extent than reluctant to trim their ain nuclear arsenals.
If the world’s major powers were to renew their involvement inwards nuclear weapons, this would receive got a devastating touching on on regional in addition to international strategic stability. Everyone would experience a greater demand to invest to a greater extent than inwards their ain nuclear weapons in addition to would experience less secure.
Furthermore, past times adding to a greater extent than Chinese armed services patrols to already crowded waters, China’s efforts to protect its submarines in addition to counter U.S. anti-submarine warfare would also brand things to a greater extent than tense betwixt conventional armed services forces. There would live no winner inwards the end.
COULD THESE DYNAMICS MAKE Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 NUCLEAR WAR MORE LIKELY?
The risk of a nuclear state of war may growth equally a number of unforeseen incidents in addition to unintentional escalations.
One number is that China’s nuclear-armed submarines could live false for nuclear-powered assail submarines armed with solely conventional weapons. Nuclear assail submarines are nuclear-powered, but they practise non comport nuclear weapons, whereas nuclear strategic submarines do. Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 threat to the latter is seen equally a much higher-level threat.
In a crisis, for example, the Chinese could misinterpret a U.S. endeavor to runway in addition to trail China’s conventionally armed nuclear assail submarines. They powerfulness wrongly believe that the US of America was genuinely preparing for a preemptive boom against China’s nuclear strategic submarines, which in all probability piece of work inwards the same area.
In such a scenario, Communist People's Republic of China powerfulness create upward one's withdraw heed to occupation its nuclear weapons earlier it believes they volition live destroyed, resulting inwards a nuclear exchange.
The reported lack of reliability inwards China’s nuclear command, control, in addition to communication arrangement may brand such risks fifty-fifty to a greater extent than dangerous. If at that topographic point were a breakdown inwards communication inwards a crisis, it would live to a greater extent than probable that Communist People's Republic of China powerfulness misjudge the province of affairs in addition to overact.
WHAT DO PEOPLE IN THE WEST NOT UNDERSTAND ABOUT HOW CHINA THINKS ABOUT ITS NUCLEAR DETERRENT?
President Donald Trump in addition to his administration’s 2018 Nuclear Posture Review portrays Communist People's Republic of China equally adopting some form of escalate to de-escalate strategy—meaning that Beijing supposedly may intend to occupation nuclear weapons rootage to intimidate an enemy if Communist People's Republic of China were facing a major defeat inwards a hypothetical conventional armed services conflict.
In such an instance, this business of U.S. thinking goes, Washington would receive got to consider using tactical nuclear weapons to deter or reply to Beijing’s potential occupation of nuclear weapons.
But at that topographic point is no evidence that Communist People's Republic of China genuinely does covert or is considering such a strategy. On the contrary, Chinese armed services strategists appear to receive got incorporated the country’s unconditional no-first-use policy deeply inwards their armed services thinking in addition to planning.
This U.S. misunderstanding of China’s nuclear posture could Pb to misjudgment in addition to overreaction, which could growth the risk of inadvertent nuclear war.
WHAT SHOULD CHINA AND OTHER COUNTRIES DO TO MAKE Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 NUCLEAR WAR LESS LIKELY?
They demand to amend empathize each other’s nuclear thinking in addition to nuclear postures, in addition to they must avoid exaggerated threat perceptions in addition to overreactions.
They ought to boundary the role of nuclear weapons to solely deterring the occupation of nuclear weapons past times others, thence minimizing the business office nuclear weapons play inwards their national safety strategies.
They should also avoid unsafe nuclear postures, such equally putting nuclear forces on high warning during peacetime or allowing nuclear in addition to conventional weapon systems to part the same laid of command, control, in addition to communication systems.
Finally, they should surrender whatsoever plans to comprise unproven artificial news technologies with nuclear weapons (such equally self-navigating nuclear torpedoes) or efforts to occupation cyber technologies to interfere with each other’s nuclear command, control, in addition to communication systems.
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