YASMEEN SERHAN
Less than 24 hours later U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May’s cabinet backed the text of her provisional Brexit deal, the walkouts began. On Th morning, Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab submitted his resignation, noting he could non “in adept conscience” back upwardly the government’s Brexit deal. Through the course of written report of the day, half-dozen others followed. The string of departures from May’s cabinet reaffirm what is already widely known: Her negotiated bargain is deeply unpopular amid lawmakers both inside together with exterior her ruling Conservative party. Even amongst her cabinet’s approval, the likelihood of the understanding gaining plenty back upwardly inwards Parliament seemed uncertain. Now, it seems almost sure that it won’t.
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Still, May’s insistence to demeanour on together with defend her bargain demonstrates something that is likewise widely known: The prime number government minister is profoundly weak, yet surprisingly stable. Though this latest political crisis marks the greatest challenge to her premiership yet, factors that withdraw hold helped her weather condition past times crises could real good protect her now.
The Successor
May has been nether pull per unit of measurement area to alter course of written report on Brexit before, though together with then fifty-fifty her fiercest opponents inside her political party had stopped brusk of calling for her ouster. But every bit more and more Conservative lawmakers submit letters of no confidence inwards the prime number minister, that calculus has changed.
Under Conservative political party rules, at to the lowest degree 48 Tory lawmakers must submit such letters for a leadership challenger to move triggered. If a vote occurs together with May loses, a novel leader—and thence prime number minister—must move selected. If May wins, however, the rules province at that topographic point tin move no farther challenge to her leadership for about other year.
Even if at that topographic point were plenty letters to trigger a contest, at that topographic point isn’t yet a clear together with feasible replacement. Though about names—including old Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson, old Brexit Secretary David Davis, together with electrical flow Environment Secretary Michael Gove—have been tipped every bit possible contenders, none withdraw hold stepped upwardly to challenge May themselves. The lack of a clear successor has protected May inwards the past, together with unless the Conservatives tin notice mortal willing to bring the Pb at this fractious time, it could protect her again.
The Timing
Beyond at that topographic point existence no clear successor, there’s likewise no indication that the bulk of Conservative lawmakers withdraw hold an appetite for a novel leader—especially at this belatedly phase of the Brexit negotiations. (Britain is laid to leave of absence the European Union at the destination of March, together with fourth dimension is running out.)
“A let on of Tories are of the view that if they launched a leadership crusade now, it exactly won’t move a real adept expect inwards the view of the crisis that is Brexit,” Anand Menon, the manager of the London-based U.K. inwards a Changing Europe hollo back tank, told me.
The Deal
Another ingredient that May has going for her is, paradoxically, her greatest weakness at present: the negotiated deal. Unlike past times political crises, May is armed non solely amongst a bargain she knows the European Union tin accept, but amongst a negotiating timeline that is shrinking past times the day.
In a contention Thursday, European Council President Donald Tusk announced that barring “extraordinary” occurrences, a summit to finalize the bargain volition bring house at the destination of the month.* And though a alter inwards Tory leadership would for certain constitute an “extraordinary” shift that could compel both sides to furnish to the negotiating table, it won’t necessary prompt the European Union to offering telephone commutation changes. Indeed, the bloc has already suggested that the bargain on the tabular array is “the best nosotros tin do.”
But mayhap the greatest ingredient keeping May inwards Number 10 for similar a shot is that she exactly refuses to quit. Following an address to the House of Commons on Thursday, May defended her bargain for 3 hours against criticisms from across the chamber, insisting that she believes the bargain offers the best path forrad for delivering a Brexit that is inwards the country’s national interest.
“There are people who mightiness pace downwards nether the class of pull per unit of measurement area she’s under, but I hollo back that’s real unlikely inwards her case,” Menon said. “The give-and-take ‘quit’ isn’t inwards her vocabulary. She volition move dogged, she volition combat this out.”
* This slice originally stated that Tusk was president of the European Commission. We regret the error.
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