by A.J. Caschetta
Watching Turkey's transformation into an authoritarian Islamist patch over the in conclusion xvi years has been eerily similar watching Iran's rapid autumn inwards 1979 -- but inwards deadening motion. Whereas Islamic Republic of Iran went from a secularist American ally to an implacable Islamist foe inwards a affair of months, Turkey has been on a similar path but led yesteryear a to a greater extent than cautious Islamist, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has moved at a much slower rate.
Rise to Power
The Pahlavi Shah of Islamic Republic of Iran exiled Ruhollah Khomeini (to Turkey, coincidentally) inwards 1964. When he returned to Islamic Republic of Iran on Feb 1, 1979, Khomeini seized absolute powerfulness almost immediately. With the Shah out of the province seeking handling for his cancer, at that spot was niggling to halt Khomeini as well as his clerical allies. He rapidly created the Islamic
President of Turkey Kemal Ataturk, left, as well as the Shah of Persia, Reza Shah Pahlavi, inwards 1934 Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) which would shortly surpass the Shah's SAVAK clandestine police line inwards putting downward internal enemies. The SAVAK's infamous Evin prison, which once held equally many equally 5,000 of the Shah's political enemies, shortly held over 15,000 of Khomeini's. Within weeks, Khomeini presided over a reign of terror that Robespierre himself powerfulness admire.
Turkey's autumn into Islamism, on the other hand, has been much slower, guided deliberately as well as incrementally yesteryear Recep Tayyip Erdogan through a serial of elections. Perhaps he learned to locomote slow from his misstep inwards 1998 when, equally Mayor of Istanbul, he rallied his supporters yesteryear pronouncing, "the mosques are our barracks, the domes our helmets, the minarets our bayonets as well as the faithful our soldiers." As a result, Erdogan was convicted of inciting hatred, given a 10-month jail judgement as well as banned from belongings populace office.
Erdogan, however, was non well-nigh to locomote away. He created a political political party called the Justice as well as Development Party (AKP) that won large inwards 2002. Soon, the ban against him was lifted as well as his comeback consummate when he became Prime Minister inwards March 2003.
Erdogan moved cautiously at first, making occasional Islamizing moves such equally seizing Christian churches, changing hijab laws as well as persecuting non-Sunni Muslims . Then ii pivotal events provided him amongst the chance to seize to a greater extent than power: the Syrian civil state of war inwards 2011 as well as the failed alleged coup essay against him inwards 2016. As Daniel Pipes put it inwards 2016:
"After years of restraint as well as modesty, his existent personality – grandiloquent, Islamist, as well as aggressive – came out. Now, he seeks to dominion equally a despot."
Erdogan ane time said that "Democracy is similar a tram. You ride it until you lot construct it at your destination, hence you lot pace off." It appears he has reached his destination.
Erasing Reforms
In Iran, the minute Ruhollah Khomeini stepped off the flat from French Republic (the terminal locale of his years inwards exile), he ready to operate erasing the secularism that the Shah had achieved through decades of Westernizing Iran. The Shah's so-called "White Revolution," initiated at the behest of the Kennedy administration inwards Jan 1963, was a computer program of reforms that established quotas for minorities as well as women inwards authorities jobs, transferred reason to the farmers who worked it, as well as embraced all things Western as well as modern. In 1967, the Family Protection Bill enabled women to sue for divorce, win custody of their children, as well as deny their husbands the powerfulness to accept multiple wives. It abolished "temporary marriage" (a Shia religious potency for prostitution) as well as raised the legal historic flow of matrimony from ix (following the Prophet Muhammad's example) to fifteen.
Ayatollah Khomenei, founder of the Islamic Republic of Islamic Republic of Iran as well as it's Supreme Leader until his expiry inwards 1989 Khomeini vilified the Shah's Westernization computer program equally "Westoxication" (translated from the Western Farsi gharbzadegi). Instead of a technologically-superior giant willing to portion the fruits of modernity amongst its third-world, anti-Communist ally, the U.S. of A. of America became the "great Satan," supposedly imposing its secularism on Islamic Republic of Iran as well as erasing its Islamic culture.
In Turkey, Erdogan has slow as well as incrementally eroded the freedoms of citizens. Like Khomeini, he wanted to purge from his province the Westernization computer program of his predecessors. Turkey ane time stood apart from the remainder of the Muslim basis due inwards large component subdivision to the reformer named Mustafa Kamal, a Turkish full general who seized powerfulness subsequently the defeat of the Ottoman Empire inwards World War I. Adopting the bring upwards Ataturk ("father of the Turks"), he officially (if symbolically) abolished the Islamic Caliphate inwards 1924 as well as began secularizing as well as Westernizing Turkey. For almost lxx years, Turkey seemed immune from Islamism. But that immunity at nowadays seems illusory.
After becoming Prime Minister, Erdogan began to erode the Ataturk system. As President, he has demolished it. The once-mighty Turkish armed forces has been purged of its independence. Minority rights, peculiarly those of Christians, stimulate got dwindled. Erdogan has focused on closing churches as well as edifice mosques. The press is no longer free, as well as Turkish academia is a shadow of its quondam self.
Governance
Any Islamist who seeks to principle has to respect a agency of rationalizing approximately the Koranic decree that "Allah has no partners." In 1991, when Ayman al-Zawahiri (the electrical current leader of Al-Qaeda) criticized the Muslim Brotherhood for participating inwards Egypt's democratic processes, he concluded:
"The bottom line regarding democracies is that the correct to construct law is given to someone other than Allah Most High. Such, then, is democracy. So whoever is agreed to this is an heathen – for he has taken gods inwards the identify of Allah."
The Shia version of this prohibition dictates that no humans tin principle hence long equally the Twelfth Hidden Imam remains hidden, as well as whatsoever essay to exercise hence is profane.
Khomeini's solution was to exercise the valeyat-e-faqih – ordinarily translated equally "governance of the jurisprudent." This arrangement placed daily governance instantly into the hands of the clerics, whose strict adherence to Sharia insulated the regime from the accuse of "Making partners amongst Allah." They were non actually governing, hence goes the argument, but only keeping a pious lookout over things until the Twelfth Imam comes out of hiding.
To lookout the watchers, Khomeini made himself Rahbar ("Supreme Leader"). Masquerading equally the wise one, he was only some other dictator who had figured out a agency to play tricks as well as threaten the population into compliance.
Erdogan's gradual takeover has been accomplished through the democratic procedure made possible yesteryear Ataturk's reforms. It has non quite amounted to the feared "one man, ane vote, ane time," but amongst each electoral victory Erdogan has achieved, he has locomote to a greater extent than to a greater extent Islamist as well as to a greater extent than authoritarian. After the alleged 2016 coup attempt, he escalated the takeover. Erdogan’s narrow victories inwards the 2017 constitutional referendum as well as the 2018 presidential election allowed him to alter as well as ignore the constitution on which he rode to power, making him Turkey's Khomeini. Now that Erdogan no longer needs to gamble losing at the voting booth, await for sham-elections that he volition win yesteryear Arafat margins.
Foreign Policy
Khomeini's unusual policy objective was a uncomplicated one: expand Iran's influence, spread its version of Islamism as well as acquire by all things Western.
Turkish President Erdoğan giving a four-finger salute Erdogan's unusual policy was also hostile to the West from the beginning, fifty-fifty earlier he became Prime Minister inwards 2003. In the post-9/11 current of air upwards to the Bush administration's displace against Saddam Hussein, Turkey negotiated amongst the U.S. of A. of America to acknowledge an additional 62,000 troops that would construct upwards the forces entering Republic of Iraq from the north. H5N1 bargain had been reached that would stimulate got brought Turkey $6 billion inwards straight assist as well as additional loan guarantees for billions more. But subsequently Erdogan's AKP political party won command of 60% of the parliament inwards the Nov 2002 elections, it exerted plenty influence to quash the deal.
As Prime Minister as well as hence President of Turkey, Erdogan's policies stimulate got locomote steadily to a greater extent than hostile to U.S. of A. of America interests. He championed the Gaza flotilla, helped Islamic Republic of Iran transport weapons into Syria, as well as fought America's Kurdish allies. Not alone has he popularized – perhaps fifty-fifty invented – the Brotherhood's four-finger salute, but he has embraced the Muslim Brotherhood as well as its construct of Islamism.
Hostages
Among the most troubling of all the Erdogan-Khomeini parallels is the novel Turkish penchant for hostage-taking. On Nov 4, 1979, Khomeini's forces seized the U.S. of A. of America diplomatic mission inwards Tehran as well as held hostage 52 diplomatic mission employees, diplomats as well as civilians for 444 days. After they were released, Khomeini continued seizing Americans, by as well as large through his terrorist proxies.
The term many stimulate got adopted to depict Erdogan's latest skid into Khomeinism is "hostage diplomacy." American pastor Andrew Brunson was taken hostage on Oct 7, 2016, as well as has been used equally a pawn inwards Erdogan's version of diplomacy e'er since. Charged amongst "Christianization," equally per the newly confident Islamist regime, Brunson is not the alone American beingness detained inwards Turkey.
What Next?
One powerfulness fence that the U.S. of A. of America ignored for decades the danger of the Shah's autumn as well as the ascension of Shia Islam equally a political force, but ane time that happened, Islamic Republic of Iran went fast during the tenure of a weak president who did cipher to assist the Shah as well as inwards fact hastened his demise. By the fourth dimension Jimmy Carter realized how foolish abandoning the Shah was, it was likewise late. But the U.S. of A. of America has had to a greater extent than than plenty fourth dimension as well as alert to meet what is coming inwards Turkey nether Erdogan. Now that the slow-motion demise is speeding up, cipher brusque of a successful armed forces coup is probable to forestall Erdogan from going full-Khomeini.
Fortunately, it is non 1979, as well as ane tin larn from the lessons of that grim year. Many are outset to reconsider Turkey's membership inwards NATO. Unfortunately, at that spot is no machinery to expel a fellow member from NATO, but at that spot is no argue to hold dozens of U.S. B61 tactical nuclear bombs inwards Turkey's Incirlik Air Base. Though the bombs (which Turkey has no airplanes capable of deploying) are secured inwards tube vaults as well as protected yesteryear redundant launch-code protocols, if seized, they silent stand upwards for a major threat.
Imagine what the basis would last similar if the U.S. of A. of America had stationed nuclear weapons inwards Islamic Republic of Iran prior to Khomeini's takeover. Imagine what the basis volition last similar if Erdogan seizes America's nuclear weapons.
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