Rohit Prasad
In his Nobel Memorial Prize lecture, entitled ‘War as well as Peace’, game theorist Robert Aumann emphasizes that characterizations of state of war equally irrational may alone serve to prolong conflict. Violent conflict has to live understood equally a rational, albeit painful, reply to sure enough incentives. He also demonstrates that peace tin emerge, fifty-fifty amongst selfish parties involved, through a procedure of long-term interaction, provided the parties own got a sufficiently depression discount rate—they practise non inordinately prioritize acquaint gains over hereafter benefits. He memorably writes, “If y'all desire peace now, y'all may good never acquire peace. But if y'all own got time—if y'all tin hold off … thus y'all may acquire peace now.” I late had an chance to mull over the ideas of Aumann when participating inwards a pocket-sized segment of an 11-day peace march beingness taken out inwards the severely Maoist-influenced areas inwards southern Chhattisgarh. Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 grouping of 150 Gond adivasis from Telangana, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, as well as Chhattisgarh started from Chatti, a hamlet at the tri-junction of Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, as well as Chhattisgarh on Gandhi Jayanti. They walked to Jagdalpur, the headquarters of Bastar district. The march was meant to limited the anguish of adivasis living inwards a contested zone as well as having to bargain on a daily footing amongst the depredations of regime forces as well as Maoists alike.
The Maoists issued a boycott telephone phone for the peace march a solar daytime earlier its commencement. Bravely, the padyatris decided to proceed the march. For the record, the yatra largely stuck to highways abutting the villages controlled past times Maoists rather than entering the villages themselves, oft simply a kilometre from the highway. Interestingly, the regime did non limited whatever objection to the yatra. This was fifty-fifty though the leaflet issued past times the yatrisexplicitly mentioned the goals of securing the liberty of thousands unjustly held inwards prison theatre as well as fully redeeming the promises of constitutional provisions similar the Forest Rights Act.
The grouping of motivated adivasis showed me that the game theoretic give-and-take of state of war as well as peace ignores the means of an of import player—the people affected past times the conflict. The conclusions of game theory emphasize the long-term interaction, credibility, as well as far-sightedness of the principal adversaries. They imply the inescapability of a Earth amongst a massive buildup of arms, periodic punitive action, as well as protracted tension. As Aumann says, “In the absence of a fundamental government…one tin possibly own got peace. But the swords must proceed to live there—and the nations must proceed to acquire war, inwards fellowship non to fight!”
This sentiment overlooks the fact that every conflict creates might centres on both sides whose interests are served past times the continuance of the impasse. Such a province of affairs has been described equally ‘cooperative plunder’, a province of affairs inwards which ii plainly antagonistic forces align for the operate of siphoning resources.
The fact that the Maoist conflict shows many signs of such plunder past times the government-Maoist combine was non lost on the padyatris. In the words of a 20-year-old man child from Kanker district, “People of the regime are acquaint inwards the ranks of the Maoists. If that was non the case, how are the Maoists getting their arms as well as ammunitions from the Earth armoury as well as their coin from regime projects? Both the regime as well as the Maoists claim to verbalise for the adivasis. Then why are they both killing adivasis—the regime inwards imitation encounters as well as the Maoists on suspicion of beingness regime informers? Both desire the adivasis to proceed to rest naive thus that they tin proceed to flourish.”
Given the province of affairs of cooperative plunder, the lasting resolution of the conflict volition alone come upwards when the affected people milkshake off the yoke lay on them past times dissimilar vested interests as well as assert their correct to alive a life non blighted past times the fearfulness of the protagonists inwards the war. They ask to reveal the lies of both the regime as well as the Maoists who claim to verbalise on their behalf.
Hence, all initiatives that Pb to increased awareness, empowerment, as well as cohesiveness of adivasi communities are to live welcomed. While the telephone phone for peace positions itself at an equal distance from the regime as well as the Maoists, the onus lies on the regime to initiate a sustained procedure of negotiation amongst the insurgents. The elected regime is accountable for the turmoil experienced past times the affected people on a daily basis, non the Maoists. Further, inwards the clash of a legally constituted regime amongst an extra-constitutional force, it is the guardians of the police describe who must practise a infinite for those who are exterior the pale of the police describe to render to the mainstream. Uncertain promises of extermination of the rebels volition non do, particularly equally the procedure of extermination alone accentuates the misery of the adivasis.
The peace movement, piece promising, runs the direct chances that its message of equidistance from the regime as well as the Maoists volition live distorted past times each stakeholder to serve its ain item interests. Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 TV journalist announced, “150 adivasis braving the terror of the Maoists own got walked through Maoist territory …”. There was no shout of the yatra’s plea against the terror unleashed past times regime forces.
Hence, for this stimulate to succeed, it volition live necessary for all right-thinking people to bring together to strengthen the telephone phone for a simply peace. Then, perhaps, ane tin inquire Aumann to expand his game theoretic models thus that his calculations yield lasting concord, non simply an uneasy truce.
Rohit Prasad is a professor at MDI, Gurgaon, as well as writer of Blood Red River. Game Sutra is a fortnightly column based on game theory.
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