Vanda Felbab-Brown
were killed yesteryear the halt of Saturday in addition to unopen to 470 people were wounded. Afghan safety forces did succeed inwards preventing large-scale attacks on election day. But at to the lowest degree one-third of polling stations did non opened upward due to insecurity, in addition to the Taliban in addition to diverse political rivals killed numerous political candidates piece campaigning.
Compromising the legitimacy of the elections were hours-long delays for many polling stations to opened upward because elections materials in addition to systems were non ready. One argue was the slowly introduction of biometric machines to receive got voters’ fingerprints in addition to photographs to preclude multiple voting. The introduction of the biometric machines was a last-minute concession yesteryear the Afghan authorities to political opposition parties who threatened to boycott in addition to unopen downward the elections. But the machines suffered multiple practical challenges, including that electoral staff did non ever know how to operate them. So, at that spot was no agency to guarantee that the procedure was complimentary of fraud, allowing losers to denounce the results every bit the trial of systemic fraud in addition to disfranchisement. Indeed, whether disputes over the results are handled peacefully or erupt into violence is every bit determinative of the country’s time to come every bit the election outcomes themselves.
Such disputes—and the procedure inwards general—take house against a backdrop of increasingly fractured political discourse in addition to embattled government. Moreover, it occurs every bit rapacious, predatory, in addition to self-interested elites who decry corruption in addition to the abuse of ability are fully complicit inwards such mis-governance. These players receive got therefore far shown picayune willingness to position national involvement in addition to the skillful of the province in addition to Afghan people ahead of parochial self-interests.
THE BLOODIER AND BLOODIER BATTLEFIELD
In Ghazni in addition to Kandahar provinces, the elections did non receive got house at all. Ghazni is withal reeling from Taliban’s takeover of the strategic province’s majuscule inwards August. Although the takeover lasted alone a few days, it exposed the continual problems of the Afghan military. Like during the Taliban’s takeover of the majuscule of Kunduz 3 years ago, depression morale, pathetic character of unit of measurement leadership, grossly deficient reinforcement systems in addition to back upward functions, inadequate intelligence, in addition to intense factionalization inwards the armed services allowed the Taliban to conquer the urban center until U.S. of A. air strikes came to the rescue. President Ashraf Ghani was plainly kept inwards the nighttime well-nigh the dire province inwards Ghazni for days. Yet the same problems had before led to the autumn of Kunduz in addition to were supposed to receive got been rectified yesteryear the Afghan military. The autumn of Kunduz could receive got likewise been an inflection point for the Afghan political elite, which at the same fourth dimension was decamping the due north in addition to heading to Kabul in addition to out of the country. But exactly every bit the same problems inwards the Afghan safety forces persist, so create the pernicious ways of Afghan politicians.
Meanwhile, morale inwards the Afghan safety forces is low, alongside casualties running thirty to twoscore per twenty-four hours in addition to every bit high every bit 300 to 400 per week, in addition to recruitment struggling. The downturn of the Afghan economic scheme since 2013 has generated a steady rootage of recruits, since a project inwards the safety service has for many—particularly those who cannot cultivate poppy—been the alone job option. But alongside such high casualty rates, the calculus for Afghan families volition brand sending sons to the safety forces unviable. Meanwhile, unopen to ninety pct of attacks are directly believed to live initiated yesteryear the Taliban, reinforcing the insurgency’s thought that the momentum is on its side.
STRONGMEN, MAFIA DONS, AND POLITICAL FRAGILITY
In Kandahar, voting was delayed afterwards the Taliban finally succeeded inwards assassinating the province’s strongman, General Abdul Raziq, in addition to the primary of the Afghan tidings service inwards the province, every bit good every bit critically wounded the governor. The caput of U.S. of A. in addition to international forces inwards Afghanistan, General Austin S. Miller, narrowly escaped unharmed but U.S. of A. Brigadier General Jeffrey Smiley was wounded. The assault was a massive operational safety in addition to tidings breach. More importantly, it leaves Kandahar, the hub of Afghan politics in addition to the primary battleground for the Taliban, broad opened upward to multiple forms of physical in addition to political infighting.
Some Afghans saw Raziq every bit hero for his tearing battles against the Taliban; others loathed him for his in 2017. It volition inquire for existent ability inwards Kabul in addition to inwards the south, formal authorities representation inwards Kabul in addition to beyond, in addition to perhaps major constitutional changes, piece non giving upward its assets in addition to obligations to communities inwards the north.
Moreover, it volition non only take away hold to disarm. At best, it volition insist on its fighters beingness integrated into the Afghan safety forces that the U.S. of A. has so painstakingly built over the yesteryear 17 years, which are dominated yesteryear Taliban rivals. Or it volition only insist on keeping its men armed, since its political rivals are non alone strengthening their factions inwards the Afghan safety forces but likewise rapidly edifice upward militias again. The many cooks in addition to kitchens of the negotiations—now involving straight U.S.-Taliban negotiation—run from Russian Federation to Islamic Republic of Iran to Islamic Republic of Pakistan to Red People's Republic of China in addition to beyond. Unfortunately, they oft cutting at cross-purposes in addition to alone give the Taliban to a greater extent than maneuvering space.
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