By: Willy Wo-Lap Lam
A spate of odd reports inward Hong Kong as well as overseas Chinese-language media lend acceptance to the thought that, spell Xi Jinping remains China’s undisputed paramount, his potency seems somewhat diminished. H5N1 moratorium of sorts appears to take keep been called on the relentless personality cult constructed around Xi, spell signs take keep emerged that China’s economical policymaking apparatus has been hamstrung yesteryear disagreements betwixt Xi as well as his top economical policymaker over how to grip a deepening merchandise state of war amongst the United States. While the merchandise state of war appears to take keep applied plenty pressure level to China’s political organisation to opened upwards infinite for criticism of Xi’s leadership trend as well as tactics, it is unlikely that Xi’s seat atop China’s political hierarchy is inward whatsoever serious danger.
Signs of Dissent
Beginning inward July, diverse cities throughout Communist People's Republic of China take keep mothballed portraits as well as display photos of Xi (such populace displays of fealty are key elements of the gathering cult of personality). The Shaanxi Academy of Social Sciences all of a precipitous ended its inquiry into “The Great Wisdom of Liang Jiahe,” (梁家河大学问), a reference to Xi’s innovative ideas as well as exploits spell serving equally a pupil inward the hamlet of Liangjiahe inward Shaanxi during the Cultural Revolution. Most inexplicably, Xinhua News Agency on July xi ran an article criticizing Hua Guofeng—Mao’s designated successor, who was eventually outmaneuvered as well as removed from powerfulness yesteryear Deng Xiaoping—for cultivating a cult of personality. This could, potentially, live seen equally an indirect assault on Xi, whose personality cult has begun to resemble that constructed around Mao Zedong (Voice of America, July 16; Ming Pao (Hong Kong), July 16; Radio Free Asia, July 12).
Reports take keep also surfaced that ii of Xi’s closest advisers, Wang Huning as well as Liu He, take keep at to the lowest degree temporarily been sidelined. Wang, who is Politburo Standing Committee (PBSC) fellow member inward accuse of ideology as well as propaganda, has manifestly taken the rap for the personality cult around Xi. Liu, the Politburo fellow member inward accuse of economic science as well as commercial relations amongst the US, has been widely criticized for Beijing’s failure to negotiate a merchandise state of war ceasefire amongst the US (Ming Pao, July 23; Apple Daily (Hong Kong), July 20).
Stories virtually political troubles befalling Xi could live exaggerated. Xi of late completed a 10-day trip to Africa as well as the Middle East; it is unlikely he would take keep left the dry ground for then long if his seat were inward imminent danger. Further mitigating against the thought of political instability, coup d’etats within the CCP—such equally the arrest of the ultra-leftist Gang of Four inward 1976, or the failed coup against Mao led yesteryear Marshal Lin Biao inward 1971—were carried out yesteryear figures who commanded the allegiance of at to the lowest degree a faction of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). The PLA is unlikely to movement against Xi subsequently a massive reshuffle of its command-and-control apparatus inward belatedly 2015 as well as early on 2016 that saw Xi install protégés inward most of the PLA’s senior roles. (China Brief, Oct 20, 2017).
Moreover, prior to Xi’s divergence for the United Arab Emirates on July 19, National People’s Congress Chairman Li Zhanshu, a long-standing Xi confidante, coined a novel agency to eulogize Xi, referring to him equally the “eternal core” of the political party leadership. Li, also a PBSC member, urged all cadres as well as political party members to exercise their utmost to “ensure that political party fundamental authorities, amongst comrade Xi Jinping equally their core, volition take keep the powerfulness to yichuidingyin [call the terminal shots] as well as to dingyuyizun [settle differences amongst utmost authority].” Four months ago, Li was also instrumental inward firming upwards Xi’s Mao-like condition yesteryear eulogizing him equally “leadership substance of the party, state of war machine commander, the people’s leader, the country’s helmsman as well as the pathfinder of the people” (Xinhua July 17; China.com.cn, March 21).
Casualties of a Trade War?
While Xi’s condition equally top leader probable remains unchallenged, his authority—including his powerfulness to brand decisions on major political, economical as well as foreign-policy issues—seems impaired inward recent weeks. Xi is widely seen equally failing to thwart what the Chinese Foreign Ministry calls Trump’s “hegemonic” as well as lingba (“bullying”) tactics. The paramount leader has, for the most part, struck dorsum entirely amongst rhetoric, alert the Trump direction of the dire consequences of challenging China. In a coming together amongst CEOs of multinational corporations inward belatedly June, Xi noted that Communist People's Republic of China followed the ethos of “a molar for a tooth”, as well as that it would sure as shooting “punch back” against unreasonable American demands (Radio French International, June 27; CNBC.com, June 25). And spell touring South Africa inward belatedly July, Xi fifty-fifty invoked Mao’s famous describe virtually China’s enemies—in this instance the US—“lifting a boulder entirely to blast their ain feet” (Xinhua July 26, Ming Pao, July 26).
Yet since Trump made it known that he powerfulness slap tariffs on all $550 billion worth of Chinese imports to the US, the response yesteryear CCP senior cadres as well as official mouthpieces has largely been 1 of paralysis (South Communist People's Republic of China Morning Post, July 22). Indeed, from June onwards, the response of the party-state apparatus has been cautious to a fault. First Beijing ordered a halt to all media references to “Made inward Communist People's Republic of China 2025”, a fundamental regime programme to nurture national champions inward cutting-edge technologies that has been seized upon yesteryear American officials equally prove of heavy province interference inward the Chinese marketplace (Radio Free Asia, June 27; New York Times Chinese Edition, June 27). And inward mid-July, the CCP Propaganda Department banned media utilization of the phrase “trade war”, inward an apparent attempt to divert the public’s attending from the fact that Beijing lacks the wherewithal to respond inward sort to Trump’s threats (South Communist People's Republic of China Morning Post, July 14).
While Xi has arrogated determination making potency on all major economical questions, the supreme leader seems to lack the professional person cognition as well as expertise to constituent equally economical czar. Reports take keep had him clashing amongst his principal economic science adviser, Vice-Premier Liu He, virtually how to bargain amongst the Americans. While speaking at a conference inward the US, White House principal economist Larry Kudlow claimed that the hawkish Xi was preventing doves such equally Liu He as well as other State Council bureaucrats from engaging inward word amongst the Americans. “I mean value Xi is belongings the game up,” Kudlow said. “I mean value Liu He as well as others would similar to movement but haven’t” (Voice of America Chinese, July 18; Businessinsider.com, July 18). Since Liu returned from ii rounds of talks inward Washington inward May empty-handed, his condition equally “Chinese leader inward Sino-US comprehensive economical dialogue” (中美全面经济对话中方牵头人) has effectively come upwards to an end. Liu did non accompany Xi on his tour of Africa as well as the Middle East, as well as has manifestly been given the novel responsibleness of looking subsequently China’s unwieldy state-owned occupation organisation conglomerates (Caixingglobal.com, July 27; South Communist People's Republic of China Morning Post, July 26).
Perhaps due to Xi’s truncated authority—and the temporary sidelining of his economical dot man—there seems to live no potency forceful plenty to halt internecine bickering amidst regime departments overseeing the economy. Both Hong Kong as well as Western media take keep reported on opened upwards warfare amidst State Council debating how to create out an incipient economical downturn, including how to lend a paw to companies affected yesteryear the merchandise state of war (Reuters, July 18; Sinoinsider.com, July 17). H5N1 item os of tilt is whether monetary as well as financial policies should live farther loosened to avert an economical slowdown. On July 13, Xu Zhong, the Director of the Research Bureau of the People’s Bank of China, published an article slamming the Finance Ministry for its apparent “dearth of effective financial policies” to aid sectors wound yesteryear the on-going Sino-US dispute. Xu fifty-fifty complained that the Finance Ministry had “low transparency” as well as that it was “behaving similar a hoodlum” (Finance.sina.com, July 16; Wallstreetcn.com, July 13). Such opened upwards conflict amidst departments or officials is rare inward the traditionally button-down party-state apparatus.
Official Silence, Intellectual Dissent
A dearth of provincial as well as municipal leaders openly singing Xi’s praises also gives campaign to dubiety his once-overwhelming traveling steal over the loyalty of regional cadres. Biaotai (表态)—or ritualistic declarations of loyalty yesteryear prominent regional supporters—is a well-worn political party tradition employed when a top leader wants to a greater extent than powerfulness or requires additional support. In the yesteryear 12 months, most regional political party secretaries, governors or mayors enthusiastically took constituent inward biaotai activities equally Xi moved to assume the condition of hexin (核心) or “core of the leadership”, as well as enthusiastically signaled their blessing when Xi changed the PRC Constitution inward March to take term limits for the postal service of province president. This time, however, almost no regional heavyweights take keep come upwards to Xi’s support. After Li Zhanshu raised the banners of yichuidingyin as well as dingyuyizun, provincial or mayoral leaders take keep seemed reluctant to demonstrate their back upwards through biaotai. Even well-known Xi sycophants Li Hongzhong, Chen Min’er as well as Cai Qi, the political party secretaries of Tianjin, Chongqing, as well as Beijing, respectively, take keep non said anything to burnish Xi’s authority. The entirely exception is Jiangxi Party Secretary Liu Qi, who vowed to uphold Xi’s potency to yichuidingyin as well as dingyuyizun. Liu’s biaotai, however, came subsequently a five-day see to Jiangxi yesteryear none other than PBSC fellow member Li Zhanshu (Jiangxi Daily, July 24).
While Xi’s regional protégés take keep surprisingly kept mum, a bevy of liberal intellectuals take keep taken a large run a peril yesteryear laying into Xi for turning dorsum the clock on political reform. In a belatedly July article entitled “Hopes as well as Fears Under Our Party,” Tsinghua University constabulary professor Xu Zhangrun defendant Xi—without direct naming him—of dismantling Deng Xiaoping’s reforms as well as reviving Mao-style dictatorship. Xu cited this pop sentiment amidst swain intellectuals: “After xl years of reform, overnight we’re dorsum to the ancien régime.” Xu added that “the comprehensive resuscitation of totalitarian politics” had aroused fears as well as indignations amidst academics as well as intellectuals (Apple Daily, July 30; Theinitium.com, July 24), calling outright for the restoration of presidential term limits as well as the political rehabilitation of those affected yesteryear the crackdown next the 1989 Tiananmen Square Massacre, both stunningly bold repudiations of Xi’s retrogressive political agenda yesteryear an intellectual employed at 1 of China’s top universities. Similarly, Zi Zhongyun, a veteran scholar of international politics, blamed the impasse inward merchandise negotiations on the Xi administration’s failure to reform. Zi attributed the weakness of the Chinese economic scheme to the political party elite’s “monopoly over resources”, fifty-fifty expressing the promise that Chinese officials should follow Trump’s advice inward found market-oriented reforms (Chinainperspective.com, June 21).
Meanwhile, the economical tilt betwixt Communist People's Republic of China as well as the US has metamorphosed into a total scale showdown betwixt Western liberal capitalistic values as well as Xi’s hard-authoritarian Communist People's Republic of China model. White House economist Kudlow expressed his promise that, “the US as well as European Union volition live allied inward the struggle against China, which has broken the world trading system, inward effect.” The White House advisor also indicated that other countries fearful of the “China threat,” which arrive at from Republic of Republic of India as well as Nippon to Commonwealth of Australia as well as New Zealand, were forming an anti-China alliance (Reuters, July 27; Fox News, July 16). Whether Xi tin come upwards up amongst effective measures to grip the multi-pronged fusillades coming from the White House depends partly on whether he tin shore upwards his threatened potency within the party. For the moment, however, it is hard non to credit speculation that the so-called “leader for life” is facing his most severe challenge since coming to business office less than vi years ago.
Dr. Willy Wo-Lap Lam is a Senior Fellow at The Jamestown Foundation. He is an Adjunct Professor at the Center for Communist People's Republic of China Studies, the History Department as well as the Program of Master’s inward Global Political Economy at the Chinese University of Hong Kong. He is the writer of v books on China, including “Chinese Politics inward the Era of Xi Jinping (Routledge 2015).”
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