A landmark understanding signed betwixt the Caspian Sea states of Russia, Azerbaijan, Iran, Republic of Kazakhstan in addition to Turkmenistan is the culmination of over 2 decades of negotiations, but it won't resolve all the lingering issues betwixt the countries. The partitioning in addition to distribution of liberate energy resources inside the Caspian Sea volition stay a major sticking point, requiring farther negotiations that Russian Federation in addition to Islamic Republic of Iran volition seek to prolong. Russia, inwards particular, volition operate on the sidelines of the understanding to foreclose projects similar the Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline from materializing in addition to potentially compromising its liberate energy marketplace seat inwards Europe. Leaders from Russia, Azerbaijan, Iran, Republic of Kazakhstan in addition to Turkmenistan accept spent over xx years trying to negotiate a bargain over how to contend the ownership of the Caspian Sea in addition to its surrounding areas. On Aug. 12, inwards the Kazakh metropolis of Aktau, they finally signed a legal convention. But despite the fanfare surrounding the summit, the understanding volition non resolve all of these countries' complex in addition to contentious debates over the Caspian Sea.
The Big Picture
In previous assessments, Stratfor anticipated that Russian Federation would endeavor to foreclose neighboring Eurasian countries from constructing the Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline, since it would compromise Russia's electrical current command over liberate energy exports to Europe. Now, despite several countries following to the Caspian Sea signing a landmark agreement, disputes locomote out on in addition to Russian Federation is outset to re-engage inwards liberate energy talks with Turkmenistan.
Some Caspian Context
The Caspian Sea is a geopolitically strategic trunk of water, both inwards price of its location in addition to its resources. Situated inwards a transcontinental zone betwixt Europe in addition to Asia, it has historically been a telephone commutation merchandise in addition to transit corridor betwixt eastern in addition to western powers. The Caspian Sea became fifty-fifty to a greater extent than of import inwards the modern era after the uncovering of important liberate energy resources, including over 50 billion barrels of fossil oil in addition to ix trillion cubic meters of natural gas inwards proven or probably reserves.
Naturally, the countries surrounding the Caspian Sea brand usage of its strategic qualities. Russian Federation in addition to Islamic Republic of Iran are with the world's largest liberate energy producers in addition to exporters, piece Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan in addition to Republic of Azerbaijan create important amounts as well. However, since the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union established Azerbaijan, Republic of Kazakhstan in addition to Turkmenistan as independent states in addition to competitors inwards the region, ongoing disputes virtually how to depict boundaries inwards the Caspian accept express all the surrounding countries' might to exploit its resources.
The primary number has been whether to legally form out the Caspian as a body of body of water or a lake. The onetime would require the partitioning of the Caspian to extend from the shoreline of each littoral province to the trunk of water's midway point, piece the latter would split the Caspian equally. Until now, the dispute has non stopped the Caspian states from accessing liberate energy resources around their shorelines, but it has prevented liberate energy exploitation from taking house deeper offshore. Moreover, it has stalled the progress of whatever pipeline projects that would instruct across the seabed itself.
What Was Settled At the Summit
Since 1996, the Caspian Sea states accept been belongings regular summits to utter over everything from environmental security issues to angling rights to security cooperation. And during the previous summit inwards 2017, the 5 countries announced that they had set over ninety percentage of the groundwork for an understanding virtually ownership. H5N1 draft of the legal convention that was posted past times Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev's website prior to the Aug. 12 summit suggested that the leaders had agreed to recognize the Caspian as a body of body of water rather than a lake.
The convention signed at the recent summit did indeed confirm that the surface of the Caspian Sea would hold upwards legally classified as a sea, important each province would command fifteen nautical miles of H2O from its shoreline for mineral exploration in addition to 25 natural miles of shoreline for fishing. All other parts of the Caspian Sea would hold upwards considered neutral waters for mutual use. The summit likewise produced of import security decisions, including an understanding that armed forces vessels from non-Caspian states would hold upwards prohibited from entering the sea. This is a boon for both Russian Federation in addition to Iran, who accept long had concerns virtually a USA or NATO armed forces presence increasing Western influence, particularly over Azerbaijan. The understanding does non foreclose the shipment of armed forces cargo through the Caspian, though, since both Republic of Azerbaijan in addition to Republic of Kazakhstan accept played logistical provide roles for USA in addition to NATO forces inwards Afghanistan.
However, many issues stay unsettled. For example, the delimitation of the seabed itself, where most liberate energy resources are located, was left pending, important the Caspian countries volition require to negotiate bilateral agreements. And Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said during the summit that the littoral states would require to grip farther talks to clarify environmental responsibilities; Turkmen President Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov later offered to host some other summit inwards his country. Moreover, deputy unusual ministers of the Caspian states are scheduled to grip consultations inwards Republic of Azerbaijan over the legal convention sometime inside the following 6 months, suggesting the document produced at the Aktau summit is notwithstanding flexible.
Why Russian Federation in addition to Islamic Republic of Iran Could Resist
Russia in addition to Iran, the 2 largest in addition to most influential Caspian states, are especially interested inwards preventing a conclusive understanding for the sake of their ain liberate energy interests. From a resources partitioning standpoint, Islamic Republic of Iran would stand upwards to lose the most from a strict classification of the Caspian as a sea, given that the distinction would hand Islamic Republic of Iran the smallest in addition to to the lowest degree resource-rich department of the Caspian.
Russia, meanwhile, is concerned virtually a Caspian Sea legal understanding facilitating pipeline projects like the Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline. Such a projection would link Turkmenistan's sizeable natural gas resources to a Southern Corridor road outset inwards Azerbaijan, allowing the province to export its natural gas to Europe in addition to potentially cutting into Russia's chief marketplace for natural gas exports.
Thus Tehran in addition to Moscow may both endeavor to drag out subsequent Caspian Sea negotiations as much as possible. In the meantime, Russian Federation volition endeavor to sway Turkmenistan from pushing ahead with the Trans-Caspian pipeline project. Indeed, at that topographic point has been speculation that Russian Federation could potentially resume some imports of natural gas from Turkmenistan after nearly 10 years. For much of the past times decade, Turkmenistan has exported its natural gas alone to China, in addition to resuming some grade of exports to Russian Federation i time over again could provide a critical boost to the struggling Turkmen economy. Only 3 days after the Aktau summit, Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Berdymukhammedov inwards Sochi to utter over liberate energy cooperation.
The Ultimate Takeaway
The legal convention signed at the Caspian Sea summit inwards Aktau is far from the in conclusion give-and-take on the partitioning of the strategic body of body of water in addition to its abundant liberate energy resources. It does dot progress inwards certainly areas such as security, but Russian Federation in addition to Islamic Republic of Iran volition probably endeavor to delay whatever finalized protocol for managing the trunk of H2O inwards club to protect their strategic liberate energy interests.
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