In Ethiopia, Africa’s largest-ever dam in addition to hydroelectric mightiness establish is inching closer to completion. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Nile River has the potential to transform Ethiopia’s economic scheme in addition to revolutionize the agricultural sector of its northwestern vecino Sudan. But farther downstream inward Egypt, where 95 pct of the population alive on the Nile’s shores or along its delta, many object to the dam, which they run across every bit a telephone commutation threat to their agency of life. As Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia prepares to operationalize the dam in addition to divert Nile waters to create amount its massive reservoir, the international dispute over the river has reached a make-or-break moment. In the coming year, Arab Republic of Egypt in addition to Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia volition either laid their differences aside in addition to forge a cooperative path forrad together—an effect that is technically viable but politically fraught—or confront a diplomatic downward spiral.
The storey of the dam dispute, however, is every bit good increasingly inseparable from the intensifying “great game” unfolding across eastern Africa: every bit Turkey, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, in addition to Arab Republic of Egypt all jockey for influence, Middle Eastern geopolitics accept jumped the Red Sea, militarizing in addition to polarizing the Horn of Africa. Middle Eastern powers are scooping upwards existent estate for armed forces in addition to naval bases, claiming arable farmland in addition to reportedly cultivating proxies to pressure level their rivals.
In around cases, Gulf countries’ growing influence in addition to resources accept helped broker constructive compromises that deed eastern Africa forward: July’s historic peace bargain ending a two-decade-long reason of state of war betwixt Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia in addition to Eritrea was facilitated past times the United Arab Emirates’ mediation efforts. In other cases, such every bit Somalia, Middle Eastern interest has made already volatile local politics fifty-fifty to a greater extent than explosive past times exporting bitter geopolitical disputes across the Red Sea.
Today, both paths—escalating conflict in addition to constructive cooperation—are distinctly possible, inward the dam dispute every bit inward the percentage every bit a whole. The risks of resurgent violence inward eastern Africa, instability inward Egypt, volume migration, in addition to threats to key Red Sea chokepoints all propose that
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