Jim Greer
This article is the latest add-on to the U.S. Army TRADOC G2 Mad Scientist Initiative’s Future of Warfare 2030-2050 projection at Small Wars Journal.
Introduction
Today, inwards the summertime of 2018, 2050 is exclusively 32 years from now. As nosotros explore didactics in addition to grooming for 2050, peradventure nosotros should reverberate on where nosotros were 32 years agone inwards 1986. In 1986, didactics was conducted inwards ii forms: the brick in addition to mortar schoolhouse in addition to distance learning via lessons in addition to tests that were mailed “snail-mail” to/from the schoolhouse to armed forces members around the world. The commencement armed forces didactics establishment to connect to DARPAnet, the forerunner of the internet, the US Military Academy at West Point, was merely connecting to the few labs in addition to other institutions “on-line.” Video in addition to well was employed inwards didactics via cassette tapes in addition to TVs, which could live hard-wire connected across several classrooms. Learning management systems (LMS) consisted of rudimentary estimator programs to tape grades in addition to schedule classes. Individual learners were connected exclusively yesteryear land-line telephone in addition to the U.S. Mail.
In the surface area of training, the National Training Center had emerged every bit the premier instrumented alive grooming capability inwards the Army, amongst the Joint Readiness Training Center to follow inwards 1987. Corps Battle Simulation (CBS) was merely replacing mapboards in addition to symbols for constructive simulations every bit the Battle Command Training Program(later the Mission Command Training Program was virtually to start grooming major commanders in addition to staffs. Virtual simulations lay inwards the futurity in addition to gaming consisted of armed forces boardgames. Home station grooming was largely live, supplemented yesteryear wargames such every bit Dunn Kempf. Training simulators were largely analog telephone yell upward for burn trainers or the infamous Beseler Cue/See. Digital Conduct of Fire Trainers (COFT) in addition to other simulators nevertheless lay inwards the future.
So, nosotros possess got advanced significantly since 1986, moving from largely analog to digital didactics in addition to training. We tin aspect to sense similar growth over the adjacent 32 years. This article suggests some major steams along which grooming in addition to didactics volition live transformed betwixt straightaway in addition to 2050. But first, it helps to understand what nosotros volition demand our armed forces didactics in addition to grooming to live inwards the futurity in addition to how nosotros mightiness obtain those objectives yesteryear transforming the way nosotros learn.
Military Challenges inwards 2050
Current demographic, economic, armed forces investment, armed forces modernization, in addition to political powerfulness trends today do non necessarily favor the United States. Communist People's Republic of China is growing inwards armed forces power, economical power, didactics powerfulness in addition to global influence.[i] Russian Federation is embarked on a meaning armed forces modernization effort, emboldened yesteryear their successes inwards Syria, Crimea in addition to the Ukraine. Islamic Republic of Iran is growing every bit a regional power, amongst the economical strength to invest inwards novel systems in addition to taking wages of regional conflicts to mature their capabilities.[ii] All 3 of these major powers are aiming their investments to counter the traditional strengths of the United States, investing inwards long-range missiles, air/missile defense, in addition to cyber to counter U.S. authorization at bounding main in addition to inwards the air.[iii] By 2050 it is probable that the U.S. Army volition non exclusively live significantly challenged inwards the dry soil domain, nosotros volition live without the air, sea, infinite in addition to cyber authorization nosotros possess got counted on since the cease of World War II.
At the same fourth dimension non-state organizations are able to nowadays the American armed forces amongst real complex challenges using combinations of improvised threats in addition to potentially chemical, biological or radiological weapons to 1 time to a greater extent than counter traditional U.S. Army authorization on dry soil in addition to nowadays non merely physical, but mental in addition to moral challenges inwards the virtual in addition to cognitive realms. Such non-state actors are able to accommodate existing armed forces in addition to civilian technologies inwards near-real time, significantly overmatching the Department of Defense’s acquisition in addition to DOTMLPF[iv] processes. Taken together these challenges volition require that futurity Army leaders in addition to Soldiers live educated in addition to trained to live operationally adaptive in addition to institutionally transformational.
What Professional Military Education Must Provide inwards the Future
What these challenges suggests is that the Army must proceed to strengthen Professional Military Education (PME). In club to do so, the commencement measurement is identifying in addition to deciding what PME must do for the Army. In consideration of the challenges outlined above, would propose Army PME needs to do virtually 4 things. First, PME has to instruct each private inwards the tactics, techniques in addition to procedures for their position, rank in addition to organization. Regardless if you lot are an infantry squad leader, a Division G-3, a warrant officeholder maintenance technician, or a civilian deputy installation commander, PME needs to ensure you lot know the nuts in addition to bolts of the profession.
Second, PME must build thinking skills inwards damage of critical, creative in addition to systems thinking, complex employment solving in addition to determination making. Improving thinking skills enables leaders in addition to Soldiers to outthink opponents inwards the chaos in addition to dubiety that is tactical combat. Improving thinking skills enables leaders to live operational artists who tin plan, prepare in addition to execute large-scale campaigns in addition to major operations regardless of the scenario or mission. And improving thinking skills provides the Army to develop strategic thinkers, strategic planners in addition to strategic leaders. Strategic thinking is non merely the responsibleness of staff officers on the Joint in addition to Combatant Command Staffs. Strategic thinking is virtually managing problems over time. When a platoon leader in addition to platoon sergeant are mapping out their strategy for developing a cracking platoon during the commencement twelvemonth of their tenure, they are exercising strategic thinking. When an acquisition officeholder is laying out how to accept a scheme from requirements through fielding, that is strategic thinking. Third, PME must develop inwards every leader grapheme in addition to competence every bit moral, ethical leaders every bit they prepare for futurity positions of increased responsibleness throughout a career of service. We all understand the nature of warfare doesn’t change. War is at its most basic virtually killing people in addition to destroying things inwards club to convey virtually weather condition that cannot live achieved whatever other way. That was truthful over ii hundred years agone when nosotros fought our Revolution inwards club to convey virtually our liberty from tyranny in addition to it was truthful over the finally decade, when nosotros fought to brand our dry soil safer from terrorism. But, the grapheme of state of war does change. Throughout our history, our Nation in addition to our Army possess got led the the world inwards recognizing the value of each human life that is caught upward inwards war, whether they are innocent civilians, enemy sympathizers or enemy combatants. Each twelvemonth nosotros consider fight to a greater extent than intermixed amongst civilian populations in addition to that tendency is unlikely to change. Our leaders require the moral in addition to ethical grapheme to acquit warfare inwards every bit humane a mode every bit possible, spell accomplishing our National objectives in addition to simultaneously respecting in addition to caring for each of our Soldiers, our families in addition to our citizens.
Fourth in addition to last, PME must back upward evolution of transformational leaders. Why transformational leadership? We observe ourselves today caught betwixt the Army nosotros possess got that nosotros are comfortable amongst in addition to the Army that our Nation needs inwards the future. The Army nosotros are comfortable amongst is 1 that is physically dominant on conventional battlefields yet tempered yesteryear over a decade of counter-insurgency experience. The Army nosotros demand is 1 that is dominant inwards the physical, cyber in addition to human realms, that is highly agile in addition to adaptive, in addition to that tin succeed when called upon to move to novel places, execute novel missions in addition to defeat novel foes. To acquire from the Army nosotros possess got to the Army nosotros demand is what transformation is all about, in addition to to make that goal is going to accept transformational leadership. Further, our sense since the Cold War has been 1 that required us to accommodate units from those conducting domicile station activities to beingness engaged inwards deployed operations, oft inwards a region, amongst a mission in addition to against an enemy that was unexpected. There is picayune testify that epitome is going to modify inwards the futurity in addition to succeeding inwards that surround takes transformational leadership. And, newly appointed squad leaders in addition to platoon leaders possess got ever had to transform their unit of measurement from the 1 they accept accuse of to the unit of measurement every bit they would similar it to be. Similarly, staff NCOs, officers in addition to civilians possess got a duty to transform their staffs, organizations in addition to processes to those that are to a greater extent than effective, to a greater extent than efficient, less bureaucratic in addition to to a greater extent than adaptive in addition to that takes transformational leadership. So, inwards the years ahead in that location is no professional person Soldier, NCO, officeholder or civilian who doesn’t demand to live a transformational leader in addition to the Army’s PME must assistance them to live that form of leader.
What Professional Military Education Must Be
Accomplishing the 4 PME objectives of developing: tactical in addition to technical excellence for each seat inwards the Army; critical, creating, systems in addition to strategic thinking, complex employment solving in addition to determination making; moral in addition to ethical character; in addition to transformational leadership; volition require a significantly different approach to didactics than the 1 inwards purpose today. PME inwards the futurity must render every Soldier, NCO, warrant officer, officeholder in addition to civilian access to the didactics they need, when they demand it, every bit effectively every bit possible, in addition to inwards a mode that is formative for them every bit they progress throughout their career. And, do hence inwards a way that is affordable over a flow of reduced annual budgets. So, what are the characteristics of such a model of PME?
Think of how you lot purpose your smart telephone to learn. First, it is…
Available. You tin push clit it out whenever you lot similar in addition to larn what you lot demand to learn. You don’t possess got to hold off until August when the adjacent Command in addition to General Staff Officer’s Course starts to learn. Next, it is Portable. You tin accept your didactics amongst you lot no affair where you lot go. You don’t possess got to move out your Captain’s Career Course learning behind merely because you lot destination the course of report in addition to movement to a unit of measurement at Fort Riley. You tin accept your smart telephone in addition to larn on leave, your didactics is non tied to the secure Army networks. Smartphone learning is Scalable. You tin larn every bit much or every bit picayune every bit you’d similar virtually a subject; depending on your interest, fourth dimension in addition to priorities. Next, it is Tailorable.There is no fixed curriculum amongst a smart phone. Each individual tin tailor the learning to their needs. You may focus on the history of river crossings, spell some other may focus on the technologies available for river crossings. Smartphone learning is Exportable. Education is non tied to the schoolhouse but tin live taken to the unit of measurement in addition to conducted there. And, most importantly, your learning is Relevant. You larn what you lot demand to, when you lot demand to in addition to you lot don’t possess got to larn anything that is non relevant to your educational needs. You tin fifty-fifty purpose your smart telephone to larn something critically of import to you lot spell you lot are engaged inwards a fight operation. Learning doesn’t acquire whatever to a greater extent than relevant than that.[v] Connectivism
To do didactics that has the characteristics outlined higher upward nosotros cannot rely on the methods that were largely developed inwards the 19th Century. Today, in that location is a major transformation occurring inwards didactics exterior the military. That transformation is inwards the management of connected learning. Traditional learning methodologies oculus on the psychology of the learner, such every bit behaviorism, constructivism in addition to cognitivism. In contrast, the newest learning theory, connectivism, recognizes that inwards the networked historic flow cognition resides non inwards the individual, but rather inwards the network.[vi] With Web 2.0 technologies private learners connect, in addition to hence curate data from the network, in addition to hence integrate that data to do novel cognition in addition to portion it amongst others. The explosion of Massive Open On-line Courses (MOOC) in addition to their impact on traditional brick-and-mortar institutions is meaning in addition to growing.
Today individuals connect to other learners in addition to sources of learning to shape personal learning networks (PLN). However, nosotros are express inwards that those PLN must live laboriously in addition to incompletely developed in addition to and hence maintained yesteryear the individual. By 2050, 3 innovations volition greatly get upward the applicability of connectivism to education, grooming in addition to leader development. First, nosotros volition each live connected personally to the meshing , amongst the powerfulness to connect, retrieve, create, in addition to portion information, continuously. Second, through the purpose of Artificial Intelligence (AI), nosotros tin get upward our PLN. AI tin recognize the adaptations in addition to extensions to novel sources of data that nosotros require based on our electrical flow gaps inwards learning, agreement or inwards back upward of determination making. Our PLN volition live automatically in addition to continuously updated. Should nosotros wishing to larn a novel subject, for instance if armed forces individuals are deploying to a novel location, our Enhanced PLN (EPLN) volition reshape, reconnect in addition to render us amongst novel knowledge. Additionally, connectivism today is virtually connecting private learners to sources of knowledge. Connectivism yesteryear 2050 volition enable learners to live connected to AI networks that themselves are learning. This significantly magnifies the didactics in addition to grooming breadth in addition to laissez passer on of an private or a team, spell compressing the fourth dimension in addition to attempt required to learn. Third, Web 3.0 volition emerge. Web 1.0 was a library, inwards which data was available in addition to could live constitute through searching. Web 2.0 was virtually applications in addition to user interface, hence that individuals could non exclusively find, but could do in addition to share, novel content. Web 3,0 volition live virtually the spider web tailoring the entire sense to each specific learner.[vii] One Training Environment
A methodology, such every bit connectivism, is exclusively 1 one-half of a learning capability. The other one-half is the surround inwards which didactics is conducted. As noted above, today nosotros are largely employing brick-and-mortar schoolhouses or on-line learning environments. Since the early on 1990s in addition to the Army’s Force XXI initiatory nosotros possess got been working to develop an integrated, synthetic grooming surround that combines alive grooming inwards the champaign amongst computer-enabled virtual in addition to constructive training, that also leverages the learning powerfulness of gaming. Our efforts to appointment possess got largely succeeded inwards creating parallel, but non fully integrated grooming environments. Probably 1 of the best examples of an integrated grooming surround today is at The Idaho National Lab (INL), a Department of Energy lab focused on nuclear issue energy in addition to cyber, inwards which their Red/Blue Course teaches leaders to acquit both offensive in addition to defensive cyber using open-source, unclassified software. In 1 facility, INL has integrated live, virtual, constructive in addition to gaming inwards a unmarried grooming exercise. Two opposing teams compete, 1 attacking in addition to 1 defending a fluid distribution facility that is real, alive in addition to tin live direct affected yesteryear the virtual in addition to constructive operations of the ii teams.
True Learner-Centric (Virtual Mentor in addition to Life-Long Learning Companion)
Armed amongst a futurity didactics in addition to grooming methodology (connectivism) in addition to a futurity learning surround (Single Training Environment) the Army volition finally live able to realize the goal of learner-centric education, grooming in addition to leader development. Today’s institutional in addition to operational grooming in addition to didactics remains largely institution-centric, amongst exclusively express powerfulness to tailor to private needs. This is driven largely yesteryear scale, Army professional person armed forces didactics courses must instruct hundreds of students in addition to possess got in-class pupil to instructor ratios of 10:1 to 20:1. Operational grooming events employ the chain of command, but fifty-fifty in that location at best leaders are grooming 5-7 individuals in addition to most individual/collective tasks are mass-trained inwards a similar mode to hundreds, if non thousands of Soldiers. For example, the same medical grooming is conducted inwards the same mode to the same standards for literally thousands of Soldiers inwards a Brigade or Division.
All that tin modify amongst the introduction of AI to private education, grooming in addition to leader development. Each private tin live connected to an artificial intelligence-driven virtual mentor in addition to life-long learning companion, using an implant every bit outlined above. The life-long learning companion tin rail every sense in addition to education/training lawsuit throughout an individual’s career. This volition include what knowledge, skills in addition to abilities were gained, to what standard, when in addition to when they demand to live refreshed. Moreover, acting every bit an intelligent tutor, the life-long learning companion tin genuinely design, develop in addition to acquit learning activities for the individual.[viii]Virtual mentors, connected to the private in addition to to the institutional force, tin back upward decisions yesteryear individuals on what developmental actions to accept from a electrical flow seat in addition to career perspective, informed in addition to accounting for feedback from other individuals inwards an AI-enabled version of the electrical flow 360o assessments.
Dynamic ADDIE
Today the primary way for adjusting curriculum, courses in addition to grooming is through the Assess, Design, Develop, Implement in addition to Evaluate (ADDIE) process. ADDIE today is a methodical approach inwards which courses in addition to grooming are updated largely on an annual cycle. Adaptations to curriculum, courses in addition to grooming are informed yesteryear automated LMS exclusively to the extent that MOE in addition to MOP such every bit scores on assessments are recorded in addition to analyzed.
AI volition render the capability for Dynamic ADDIE that tin literally live adapted mid-course every bit novel information, novel capabilities, novel tactics, techniques in addition to procedures (TTP) are introduced. For example, a course of report mightiness employ scenarios in addition to exercises that are laid inwards the Middle East. If the requirement changes, AI-enabled systems could accommodate all scenarios, exercises in addition to grooming materials to an Indo-Pacific regional focus. Change a doctrinal framework in addition to Dynamic ADDIE could ripple that modify throughout all the courses at a Center of Excellence. Dynamic ADDIE linked to the life-long learning companion of each private inwards a course of report tin tailor formative assessments to each individuals learning needs, rather than the electrical flow group-oriented noun assessments employed inwards our PME.
Raising the Bar
Today much of our didactics in addition to grooming is aimed at the lower one-half of Bloom’s taxonomy, amongst a heavy emphasis on application of what is learned. If the Army is able to leverage the powerfulness of individuals connected to the internet, AI in addition to Web 3.0, didactics in addition to grooming should live able to live aimed at the upper levels of Bloom’s taxonomy. Individuals volition acquire inwards at courses already competent inwards the knowledge, skills in addition to abilities required to apply cognition at the 3rd flat of Bloom’s (or their virtual mentor tin retrain them inwards specific deficiencies individually without affecting the progress of the course of report in addition to without less capable individuals asset dorsum the learning of others). Instructor/facilitators volition no longer demand to aim their instruction, facilitation in addition to word at the few individuals who are struggling to original the basics of the course of report learning objectives. Instead, when the Army invests resources such every bit time, money, facilities in addition to grooming capabilities to convey together individuals for collective learning, they volition live able to focus on the upper levels of Bloom’s Taxonomy. Rather than focusing on the learning inwards unmarried topics areas, individuals volition original the requirements of complex employment solving in addition to critical, creative, systems in addition to strategic thinking.
Individuals who original analyzing, evaluation in addition to creating tin move the transformational leaders the armed forces requires. Rather than beingness caretakers of existing cognition in addition to operational experience, institutional PME volition move incubators for novel ideas in addition to novel approaches to overcoming the emerging challenges inwards the futurity national safety environment. Moreover, the schoolhouse volition no longer possess got to focus primarily on the scientific discipline of war. Much of the application of the scientific discipline of state of war tin live conducted yesteryear AI in addition to autonomous systems. This enables schoolhouse didactics to focus on the fine art of war, the pattern of campaigns in addition to operations, the social sciences in addition to humanities hence necessary to agreement the human aspects of state of war in addition to the moral/ethical challenges presented yesteryear novel environments, relationships in addition to capabilities. This volition enable education, grooming in addition to leader evolution to encounter all 4 of the requirements of PME. Conclusion
2050 is exclusively 32 years from now, but much volition modify inwards didactics in addition to grooming inwards that time. Prudent investments inwards research, capability evolution in addition to educators in addition to trainers tin enable the Army to leverage the possibilities inherent in: human connections to computing, AI in addition to Web 3.0. These 3 innovations tin transform how nosotros educate, prepare in addition to develop leaders yesteryear employing connectivism, One Training Environment, virtual mentors in addition to life-long learning companions, in addition to Dynamic ADDIE. This volition enable the armed forces to get upward the bar inwards learning, amend educate for the fine art in addition to scientific discipline of state of war in addition to develop the moral/ethical leaders in addition to complex employment solvers the Army volition demand to overcome emerging challenges yesteryear cracking powers in addition to non-state actors inwards club to secure Americans in addition to our Nation.
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