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If the Department of Defense’s tidings operations are going to last successful inward the future, the tidings community must movement from a descriptive model, inward which analysts offering details on an event, to a predictive model, inward which analysts depict what may happen, transcend defence leaders said Aug. 13. “The ultimate finish of tidings is non simply to win wars. As President Eisenhower said, the entirely agency to win the adjacent nation of war is to preclude it,” Lt. Gen. Robert Ashley, manager of the Defense Intelligence Agency, said during an Aug.13 keynote presentation at the DoDIIS conference inward Omaha, Nebraska. The fundamental challenge for tidings operations today is to create upward one's hear the indicators of an effect that could accept house in addition to what is beingness missed, Ashley added. He noted the tidings community has to movement by descriptive tidings — how high, how fast, how far — in addition to last to a greater extent than predictive. “For us to produce that, nosotros demand to last able to harness the big information that’s out there,” he said.
In today’s world, every activeness humans accept inward their lives generates data, whether it’s making a telephone call, sending a text message, ordering from a ride part society or swiping a credit card.
“The information exists in addition to our powerfulness to discern every bit much information from it every bit possible volition create upward one's hear our success or our failure,” Jack Gumtow, CIO of the Defense Intelligence Agency, said at the same conference.
Data inward the opened upward origin in addition to classified tidings collection infinite mightiness stand upward for the keys to improve agreement in addition to fifty-fifty preventing for certain events, Ashley said.
As an example, he pointed to the Arab Spring, inward which several governments inward the Middle East faced destabilization inward 2010. Ashley, who served every bit manager of tidings for the armed forces ascendance overseeing the region, said that many of the warnings signs were there.
Analysts saw the ascent of inequality, increased corruption, growing populace discontent, but they were non able to pivot downwardly the fourth dimension or the catalyst for the events that led to the Arab Spring, he said.
Similarly, Ashley wondered aloud if a like approach could induce got been prevented World War I if the modern applied scientific discipline existed inward 1914.
“Would nosotros induce got seen the conflict coming inward fourth dimension for leaders to brand a conclusion necessary to stop the serial of events that happened inward August of 1914,” he asked.
Gen. Raymond Thomas, caput of Special Operations Command, similarly told the audience that perfect situational awareness is predictive analysis that prevents a crisis.
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