Howard R. Simkin
This article is the latest improver to the U.S. Army TRADOC G2 Mad Scientist Initiative’s Future of Warfare 2030-2050 projection at Small Wars Journal.
“The Future is already here. It’s exactly non really evenly distributed.”
-- William Gibson, scientific discipline fiction writer who coined the word cyberspace inwards 1984.[1]
Purpose
This newspaper examines the term technological fluency every bit it applies to futurity Special Operations Forces (SOF) inwards the 2030 – 2050 timeframe. It begins alongside a proposed definition. It in addition to then shapes the word alongside the next questions. What does the Future Operating Environment (FOE) tell us? How mightiness SOF Operators acquire such fluency? What are the long term implications for SOF? It concludes alongside an operational vignette.
Technological Fluency
Technological fluency is the powerfulness of an arrangement or private to employ in addition to adapt applied scientific discipline to come across their needs.
The Future Operating Environment (FOE)
A survey of the 2 most commonly available, authoritative sources on the FOE points to an ever-increasing charge per unit of measurement of technological change, the growth of mega-cities, in addition to the diffusion of cutting-edge applied scientific discipline into the hands of both set down in addition to non-state actors.[2] Over the side past times side x to 20 years, the the world volition sense dramatic changes inwards technology, many of which volition send upon how ARSOF operates. doctor James Canton, a noted technologist in addition to futurist, observed that the v emerging technologies noted inwards Figure 1[3] are driving an exponential growth inwards AI.This growth charge per unit of measurement volition justice that of Moore’s Law, doubling inwards powerfulness patch dropping inwards toll every 2 years. Increasingly capable AI volition inwards plow accelerate the evolution of each of the v converging technologies. Our adversaries volition undoubtedly seek to harness those trends to gain their ends. The SOF of 2030 to 2050 volition live on comfortable alongside many technologies instantly inwards their early on stages of development. They volition have got grown upwards alongside ubiquitous computing,[4] enhanced reality,[5] AI powered virtual agents/assistants[6], autonomous robotic systems[7] in addition to human augmentation. More than existence comfortable alongside these technologies, the futurity SOF Operator volition await them to live on available.[8] One exactly has to appear at the electrical current role of smart phones past times nation of war machine personnel – on in addition to off the battlefield to know it is true.
Acquiring Fluency
The relentless stair of technological modify volition assure that acquiring technological fluency volition live on a lifelong process. As Kevin Kelly observed inwards his book, The Inevitable, Understanding the 12 Technological Forces That Will Shape Our Future, “In this era of ’becoming,’ everyone becomes a newbie. Worse, nosotros volition live on newbies forever.”[9]This is assured past times the fact that most of the of import technologies that volition dominate our lives inwards xxx years have got yet to live on invented. Also, novel technologies require endless upgrades. Finally, the electrical current wheel of obsolescence for information technology systems is accelerating. Currently a telephone app is obsolescent inwards xxx days. Faced alongside these facts, no ane volition have got fourth dimension to original a applied scientific discipline past times electrical current agency earlier it changes, becomes obsolescent, or obsolete.
As the Army’s USASOC Strategy 2035 recognizes that electrical current agency of didactics in addition to preparation require upgrades to come across futurity demands. In the mid-term of iii to vii years, USASOC seeks both to invest inwards “education initiatives” in addition to “create in addition to implement didactics models” that volition allow ARSOF Operators to excel operationally. In the long term of viii to 20 years ARSOF seeks to “Implement choice military/civilian career models that are to a greater extent than attuned to the demands of the futurity operating environment.” This will, of course, require didactics in addition to training.[10]
One non-traditional approach that is achieving success is the Massively Online Open Course (MOOC).[11] The thought is to do software that tracks the progress of each pupil in addition to and then adapts the content, stair of instruction, in addition to assessment to the individual’s performance. These systems succeed past times providing immediate feedback that addresses the student’s misunderstandings in addition to offers additional instruction in addition to materials. They do so exterior of the traditional ‘brick in addition to mortar’ schoolhouse or the largely static versions of online learning available inside the Department of Defense.[12] SOF should employ this approach to hold technological fluency of its operators.
ALEKS is a commercial-off-the-shelf production easily accessible to SOF Operators for edifice in addition to maintaining technological fluency that presents a slightly dissimilar approach to learning from the MOOC. It is an online tutoring in addition to assessment programme that includes course of written report fabric inwards mathematics, chemistry, introductory statistics, in addition to business. Rather than existence based on numerical essay scores, ALEKS uses the theory of knowledge spaces to develop an agreement of the laid of topics a pupil does or doesn't empathise from the answers to its essay questions. Based on this assessment, it determines the topics that the pupil is ready to acquire in addition to allows the pupil to pick out from interactive learning modules for these topics.[13]
Another non-traditional approach is the awarding of nanodegrees inwards diverse technological areas. SOF could accept wages of these existing nanodegree programs to hold the technological fluency of the SOF Operators. Online universities similar Udacity offering nanodegrees that commonly finally iii months inwards focused disciplines such every bit Artificial Intelligence (AI), Machine Learning (ML), Natural Language Processing, Computer Vision, Deep Learning, in addition to Virtual Reality Developer.[14] Google, Amazon, IBM, Nvidia, Mercedes Benz, in addition to AT&T recognize these degrees in addition to hire those who earn them every bit presently every bit they graduate.
In the close future, artificial word enabled avatars inwards an enhanced reality, principally augmented reality (AR) in addition to mixed reality (MR), setting volition render a agency for pursuing didactics in addition to conducting training. What gives MR in addition to VR their existent powerfulness is the convergence of a number of accelerating technological trends. These include Artificial Intelligence (AI), Virtual Assistants (VA), indicate clouds, spatial computing, Nano-transistors, the Internet of Things (IoT), wearable computers, in addition to Terahertz (THz) wireless. Taken together, these trends undergird the effectiveness of VR in addition to MR. The tabular array below briefly describes these technologies in addition to their impacts.
Table 1 - Technologies That Will Enable Technological Fluency
The principal divergence betwixt tradition learning in addition to enhanced reality enabled learning lies inwards the sharing or imparting of experience. Such transformational learning usually occurs because of a personal sense which produces either cognitive noise or a previously novel of perspective. Experience has informational, sensory, in addition to emotional components. One constituent tin trigger the others. Patriots who read Thomas Paine’s “Common Sense” reacted to informational content alongside emotion. Participants inwards majority rallies have sensory, informational, in addition to emotional input which tin atomic number 82 to a modify inwards behavior.
Virtual Reality (VR) in addition to Mixed Reality (MR) tin live on effective tools to withdraw transformational learning about. This is because what a user experiences inwards VR or MR is stored inwards that part of the encephalon which deals alongside experience, every bit opposed to learning. This represents a quantum outflow inwards the capability to learn others.[15] Virtual realities artificially do sensory experiences, which tin include sight, touch, hearing in addition to smell.”[16] MR “integrates computer-generated images so tightly that users cannot tell the divergence betwixt what is existent in addition to what is virtual.”[17] This volition enable users to acquire a deep, nuanced agreement of the dependent matter, the associated technologies in addition to their operational effects.
In the to a greater extent than distant future, human augmentation may render a agency of enhancing knowledge to a greater extent than rapidly if non instantaneously. Recently the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) has been experimenting alongside a number of knowledge augmentation techniques. This includes encephalon reckoner interfaces (BCI), advanced human machine interfaces, in addition to other forms of augmented cognition.[18] Augmented knowledge volition allow SOF Operators to employ applied scientific discipline to gain a decisive wages inwards their powerfulness to think in addition to act.
In 2008, the National Geospatial Intelligence Agency demonstrated through experiments the role of encephalon signals to assist analysts growth search throughput in addition to back upwards rapid target detection inwards overhead imagery. Using the brain-enabled triage search method, researchers were able to exhibit at to the lowest degree a 600% growth inwards search throughput (measured inwards foursquare kilometers per min) across multiple picture analysts in addition to target types.[19] In the future, related advances volition extend to the powerfulness to hold technological fluency.
Long Term Implications
Continual preparation volition also live on fundamental to maintaining the SOF Operator’s technological fluency. However, that preparation volition appear really dissimilar from that of today. Enhanced reality, BCI in addition to other forms of augmented knowledge volition ensure it. The stair of technological modify volition require that every SOF Operator live on both a quick written report in addition to a life-long learner. Curiosity in addition to a willingness to explore the boundaries of knowledge, teamed alongside advanced learning applied scientific discipline (e.g., Enhanced Reality, Brain Computer Interfaces, in addition to neural implants) volition hold the SOF Operator every bit the center of all SOF is in addition to does.
Operational Vignette
This fictional vignette paints a film of how the futurity SOF Operators mightiness hold their technological fluency inwards the 2035 – 2050 timeframe. Any resemblance of the characters to whatsoever persons, living or dead is purely coincidental. The vignette begins every bit an ODA has exactly received orders to deploy on a routine preparation mission. It begins inwards the squad room.
Master Sergeant Julia Barnes entered the squad room, followed past times the squad leader Captain Marcus Jefferson. They were a written report inwards contrasts. Barnes was tall, lithe, in addition to fair of pilus in addition to oculus whereas Jefferson was short, muscular, in addition to dark. Barnes was terse in addition to practical patch Jefferson was opened upwards in addition to imaginative. The squad had nicknamed them “the tabular array salt in addition to pepper twins.” However, they had both earned the abide by of their team.
Barnes scanned the room through her number Raptorview MR glasses, all vi of the other available squad members were at that topographic point – either inwards someone or virtually. She felt a certainly satisfaction that her ‘personalized counseling’ of 2 perpetually belatedly squad members had finally taken effect. Few things could irritate her to a greater extent than than lateness.
“Good morning,” She said inwards her usual quiet, authoritative tone.
The chorus of replies ranged from “good morning” to “what’s so skillful virtually it?”
Captain Jefferson shook his caput every bit he thought, “Some things never modify inwards a squad room.” He held upwards his hand, “Alright, nosotros demand to focus. Our detachment has been given the latest model TALOS suit – the Mark V. We are the guinea pigs.” He smiled, “No affair how much they essay these things inwards the lab or on a reckoner somebody yet has to accept them out in addition to role them to catch if they actually work.”
One of the squad members, Sergeant First Class Charlie Leonard pose his correct index finger inwards the air, twirled it, in addition to said alongside mock enthusiasm, “Whoopee!”
“Knock it off Charlie,” Barnes replied skillful naturedly. As the detachment cutting upwards in addition to unofficial morale officer, Charlie had a certainly amount of latitude of expression.
“As I was saying,” Captain Jefferson continued, “we demand to acquire trained upwards on the novel suit every bit rapidly every bit possible earlier nosotros move to the testing range. After nosotros essay them, nosotros acquire to accept them on our side past times side deployment. Master Sergeant Barnes has prepared some ideas for our spin up, so I’ll plow things over to her.”
Barnes stepped upwards side past times side to the Captain in addition to said, “Alright. Turn on your MR optics if y'all haven’t already.” She paused for a minute earlier resuming, “What y'all catch earlier y'all is the Mark V TALOS suit. It has a number of distinct advantages over the Mark IV.” She made a gesture which caused the hologram to start out to rotate slowly, “It has improved armor both against ballistics in addition to directed energy. It uses l per centum less juice to operate. As y'all tin see, the BCI has been upgraded every bit well.”
Charlie raised his hand, “It looks similar the BCI isn’t compatible alongside my chip. Does that count me out?
“No.” Barnes frowned, “Go acquire an upgrade every bit presently every bit nosotros are done here. Sweet cheese in addition to crackers, do I demand to lucifer your hand?”
The residual of the squad laughed at the exchange. Even when provoked Barnes rarely cursed, a personality tic which was a percentage of her leadership style.
“Okay y'all clowns, settle down,” Captain Jefferson said.
Once the laughter died, Barnes continued, “I’ve gotten alongside the S3 in addition to booked us iii days at the Virtual Range. Then nosotros acquire some other calendar week inwards our operational area.” She made an oculus motion which caused her MR spectacles to transmit data, “I’m sending the Qcrypt[20] fundamental to jack in.”
One of the avatars, Staff Sergeant Anders Johanssen raised his hand.
“Yes, Andy?”
“Did y'all volume us whatsoever fourth dimension for linguistic communication refresher?” Anders smiled, “It’s been a patch since I spoke the target dialect. When we’re out of suit, I don’t desire to repeat what happened on our finally deployment.”
The whole squad laughed every bit they remembered an extremely awkward province of affairs brought virtually past times their linguistic communication AI non knowing the local dialect. It had been innocent enough. They were inwards Somalia every bit percentage of a humanitarian assistance mission. Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 local had asked why the squad was there. Anders had replied “Adoonka.”
The local’s eyes became broad alongside terror, he shrieked similar a banshee, in addition to fled shouting a alarm to ane in addition to all to run for their lives.
Once the squad got everyone calmed downward they realized that the word adoonka, commonly translated every bit ‘to help’ or ‘to assist’ translated ‘to wipe’ out or ‘obliterate’ inwards the local dialect.
“Yes,” she replied. “You tin acquire a straight cognitive refresher every bit good every bit a jeopardy to exercise alongside ane of our native speakers inwards the VRRE[21]. If y'all demand to a greater extent than practice, the DoS linguistic communication VRRE is available, so is Monterey.”
“Thanks.” Anders grinned.
The other avatar, Sergeant First Class Ivan Petrovich spoke up, “They actually have got made some upgrades in addition to modifications. I’m going to demand some fourth dimension to os upwards on the maintenance requirements.”
“I’ve arranged for y'all to acquire the usual tech information straight download, some virtual practice, every bit good every bit some hands-on fourth dimension alongside the ane actual suit nosotros have got inwards the battalion.” Barnes paused, “Take a closer appear at the preparation schedule in addition to you’ll catch it.”
“Okay.”
Captain Jefferson spoke up, “Okay. We’ve got iii days to acquire used to the suits earlier nosotros starting fourth dimension using them. Then nosotros have got some other v days of mission prep. Let’s non waste matter whatsoever time.”
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