By Pervez Hoodbhoy, Zia Mian
On Saturday, Imran Khan volition live sworn inwards every bit the adjacent prime number government minister of Pakistan. His has been a abrupt too rapid ascension to power; he showtime came into politics inwards the belatedly 1990s with no sense too has never held whatsoever regime office. In his showtime populace address to the state after winning the July election, with Pakistan’s economic scheme close bankruptcy, Khan said, “The biggest challenge nosotros are facing is the economical crisis.” While this may good live the most pressing issue, the biggest too most of import challenge Imran Khan volition human face upward every bit prime number government minister is something he did non squall at all inwards his speech—how to care the Bomb. The lives too well-being of Pakistan’s 200 1000000 citizens too countless millions inwards Republic of Republic of India too elsewhere depend on how good he deals with the doomsday machine Pakistan’s Army too nuclear complex receive got worked hence difficult to build. To live fair, it is non clear that Imran Khan volition receive got much alternative regarding nuclear policy. For Pakistani politicians, the options largely come upward downwards to either back upward the Bomb, or maintain placidity nigh it. Like other prime number ministers before him, Imran Khan may expire too receive got his picture taken with the missiles that volition deportment nuclear warheads too pose with the scientists too engineers that ready them too the military machine units that programme too educate to burn them.
Imran Khan’s two-decade-long political career overlaps with the creation of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal, but he has had real lilliputian to say nigh the Bomb. When he has spoken, it has been every bit a Bomb supporter. In 1998, every bit Republic of Republic of India too Islamic Republic of Pakistan tested their Bombs, Imran Khan told the BBC, “The exam had to live done to tell Republic of Republic of India that Islamic Republic of Pakistan had a Bomb, because in that location was a lot of ambiguity on whether nosotros had the Bomb. My political party was clear that nosotros had to tell Republic of Republic of India that nosotros had a deterrent.” He claimed the Bomb every bit proof of Pakistan’s possibilities, telling the BBC that “[i]f it tin privy receive got scientists that develop nuclear bombs too then nosotros tin privy develop our ain country.”
Imran Khan also has courted the back upward of Abdul Qadeer Khan (no relation), the human being most closely identified inwards Pakistani minds with the country’s Bomb. This was after A.Q. Khan admitted publicly inwards 2004 to selling Iran, North Korea, too Great Socialist People's Libyan Arab Jamahiriya the uranium enrichment centrifuge technology scientific discipline he had before stolen from European companies too copied for Islamic Republic of Pakistan too sharing nuclear weapon designs with other countries. He was chop-chop pardoned too placed nether occupation solid arrest, but released inwards 2009.
This history suggests that Imran Khan may live probable to back upward the continued build-up of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal. It is estimated that the arsenal forthwith is on the guild of 150 nuclear weapons, with Islamic Republic of Pakistan existence able shortly to deliver these weapons from airplanes (either via bombs or cruise missiles), on land-based ballistic missiles too cruise missiles, too on cruise missiles launched from submarines.
Few knowledgeable observers forthwith dubiety that Pakistan’s Army helped convey Imran Khan victory inwards the 2018 elections past times stifling other political parties too silencing substitution voices inwards the media. Given the debt he owes to those who made his election possible, it is unlikely he volition forthwith attempt to assert himself too force for unopen to form of democratic civilian command inwards nuclear matters too inwards unusual policy generally. More likely, the Army volition await Imran Khan’s regime to live cheerleaders inwards back upward of its adjacent military machine adventure. All the pieces are inwards place.
Military crises receive got occurred inwards the subcontinent with awful frequency inwards recent decades, despite the Bomb, too perchance because of it. Islamic Republic of Pakistan too Republic of Republic of India receive got survived at to the lowest degree 5 since 1987, giving both sides misplaced confidence that they volition hold out the next, too. This, inwards turn, leads to a lessening of political restraints on the militaries of both countries too greater nuclear brinksmanship.
As Islamic Republic of Pakistan discovered during the 1999 Kargil crisis, the combination of the Army, the Bomb, too pliant politicians leads to large mistakes. Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, the chosen political tool of the Army inwards those days, was led to believe past times General Pervez Musharraf, the caput of Pakistan’s Army, that he had a programme for the liberation of Kashmir. General Musharraf’s foray over the Line of Control—the effective border betwixt Republic of Republic of India too Islamic Republic of Pakistan inwards the Kashmir region—at showtime took the Indians past times surprise too then slowed, stalled, too finally crashed. Indian air ability too artillery began decimating Pakistani forces, leaving Islamic Republic of Pakistan with a stark choice: withdrawal, a wider war, or brandishing nuclear weapons.
The earth watched too judged. Islamic Republic of Pakistan was deemed the aggressor. The belief that Communist People's Republic of China would bail out Islamic Republic of Pakistan was proven false. Musharraf too Sharif each visited Communist People's Republic of China seeking support; both returned empty handed. Then, on July 3, 1999, Sharif made a desperate, uninvited dash to Washington for help. He eventually was willing to challenge the wisdom of his generals, but alone when the province of affairs had acquire desperate too nuclear state of war appeared to live terrifyingly close—and when the Americans were on his side.
Strobe Talbott, too then US deputy secretarial assistant of state, records that “on the eventide of Sharif’s arrival, nosotros learned that Islamic Republic of Pakistan powerfulness live preparing its nuclear forces for deployment. There was, with those of us preparing for the meeting, a sense of vast too nearly unprecedented peril.” Faced with a province of affairs where he did non know what his ain regular army was upward to, a shocked too subdued Sharif signed the withdrawal document. The prime number government minister was overthrown 3 months afterward inwards a military machine coup led past times Gen. Pervez Musharraf.
Not long afterwards, Islamist militants backed past times Islamic Republic of Pakistan attacked India’s Parliament, triggering massive military machine deployments past times both countries too an intense military machine crisis that lasted until Oct 2002. In July 2006 too 1 time to a greater extent than inwards Nov 2008, Islamist militants believed to live linked to Islamic Republic of Pakistan attacked the Indian urban heart of Mumbai, killing too wounding hundreds of people too 1 time to a greater extent than raising the prospect of a military machine response. Since then, the focus of conflict has shifted dorsum to the Line of Control dividing Kashmir. Republic of Republic of India too Islamic Republic of Pakistan blame each other for hundreds of violations of the ceasefire agreed inwards 2003, with hundreds of military machine too civilian casualties too Republic of Republic of India citing hundreds of attempts each twelvemonth past times militants to cross over from Pakistan.
In Indian-occupied Kashmir demands for greater autonomy too independence receive got met with repression, which has fueled Kashmiri resistance. Human rights violations receive got acquire chronic. The Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights reported inwards 2018 that inwards the past times ii years “Indian safety forces used excessive strength that led to unlawful killings too a real high number of injuries” spell militant groups were held responsible for “a broad arrive at of human rights abuses, including kidnappings too killings of civilians too sexual violence.” Some of the militant groups fighting inwards Kashmir are based inwards Islamic Republic of Pakistan too backed past times the Army.
Peace does non seem to live inwards the cards. The Islamic Republic of Pakistan Army’s low-cost alternative is to maintain the pot boiling inwards Kashmir too elsewhere inwards India, but non to allow it boil over. It has secretly sponsored Islamist proxies to produce its muddy work, too their footprint tin privy live seen across Pakistan. Some Islamist groups receive got been supported to aeroplane political parties too successfully run candidates for elections. It is unlikely that Imran Khan volition take away to motion against these actors or rein them in; he has long demonstrated sympathy for the Taliban too other extremists. Any such activity would live unwelcome to the Army too decried every bit a betrayal past times his political party base.
Whether triggered past times Army activity inwards Kashmir or past times militant attacks, what happens if the adjacent crisis comes on Imran Khan’s watch? To whom volition he facial expression for exterior assistance, too volition those allies come upward to his aid? Will he run to Washington, ala Nawaz Sharif? Imran Khan built his political base of operations initially on harsh anti-American rhetoric. For a spell he was dubbed “Taliban Khan” for his fierce condemnation of drone strikes against Islamist militants. Still, the USA has forgiven worse too volition probable verbalize to him inwards a crisis. The jeopardy of escalation to nuclear state of war inwards Southern Asia is every bit good grave a occupation organisation to live ignored.
What has changed since Kargil? All semblance of trust betwixt Islamic Republic of Pakistan too the USA is gone. The USA after the 9/11 attacks went to state of war inwards Afghanistan, too constitute that despite receiving vast amounts of US aid, Islamic Republic of Pakistan continued to back the Taliban. In 2018, this led to a cutoff inwards US safety aid to Pakistan. But the lack of trust plant both ways; many inwards Pakistan, including inwards the Army, view the USA every bit waiting to pounce upon too seize Pakistan’s nuclear weapons at the showtime opportunity.
Will Imran Khan too then plough to Communist People's Republic of China for support? His speech communication to the state after the election suggests such a tendency, but before Pakistani military machine leaders conceive too implement unopen to other Kargil, they take away to sympathise that Communist People's Republic of China is non the novel global superpower that has replaced the United States. Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 complex, four-way dynamic has emerged with India, Pakistan, China, too the United States. It is 1 that does non piece of work inwards Pakistan’s favor.
China competes strategically with the USA too India, but it also trades heavily with both. There is no state of war verbalize too no visceral animosity with the members of this China-US-India triad. Islamic Republic of Pakistan touts Communist People's Republic of China every bit an all-weather friend too expects protection, but the Kargil episode showed that these expectations were misplaced. India’s hawkish strategic elite sees Islamic Republic of Pakistan forthwith every bit a Chinese proxy inwards the trial of a Pak-India war, too India’s Army main talks of fighting a two-front war. But inwards unopen to other crisis, Communist People's Republic of China 1 time to a greater extent than may bear witness reticent to receive got Pakistan’s side too prefer to back upward de-escalation too an goal to the crisis every bit chop-chop every bit possible.
Even the finest diplomacy may non piece of work inwards the midst of a tempest rigid plenty to knock over the pieces on the southward Asian nuclear chessboard. With an emboldened regular army inwards Islamic Republic of Pakistan sooner or afterward seeking 1 time once to a greater extent than to force Republic of Republic of India to the brink—this fourth dimension determined to escalate rather than dorsum downwards if things expire badly—staving off nuclear warfare on the subcontinent may live a race against time. Imran Khan needs to sympathise that the best agency to grip a nuclear crisis is non to provoke 1 or attempt too move such a crisis for political advantage. Of course, an informed too organized public, able to maintain political too military machine leaders inwards banking concern fit too trammel them from brandishing nuclear weapons, would constitute a to a greater extent than enduring banking concern fit on nuclear risk-taking. In Pakistan, however—with political leaders willing to allow the military machine receive got effective command of substitution policies too stifle populace discourse—this form of active commonwealth seems a distant hope.
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