A WEEK afterwards a full general election rocked past times suspicions of fraud, the dust is inaugural of all to settle. It looks all but sure that Imran Khan, a quondam captain of Pakistan’s cricket team, volition move sworn inwards as the country’s side past times side prime number minister. His party, Islamic Republic of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), volition dominate the legislature. The outgoing Islamic Republic of Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) too the Islamic Republic of Pakistan Peoples Party cried foul, noting that the regular army had come upwardly out strongly inwards Mr Khan’s favour, muzzling the press too sending safety agents to meddle inwards polling stations. But the fact that these ii ancient rivals are instantly making mutual sweat as the loyal opposition suggests that they pick out the result. Few Pakistanis desire endless street protests too political turmoil. So the democratic demo rolls on. For the minute fourth dimension inwards Pakistani history, ability has been democratically transferred. For over ii decades Mr Khan has railed against a sleazy organization of hereditary politicians too patronage networks. Yet this is the inaugural of all fourth dimension the PTI has shown a broadly national appeal inwards a province of 207m. Its 4m to a greater extent than votes than the PML-N stand upwardly for a notable pop victory, ane entirely partly undermined past times vote-rigging allegations. Most remarkable is the PTI’s win inwards Karachi, a metropolis of powerful local machines too thuggish street politics. The PTI may yet wrest Punjab, the country’s staff of life handbasket too most populous province, from the PML-N. That would cap a remarkable autumn for the Sharif brothers: Nawaz, the “Lion of Punjab”, who was prime number government minister until concluding twelvemonth too is instantly inwards jail facing corruption charges, too Shahbaz, Punjab’s quondam principal minister.
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Yes, he Khan
Mr Khan, who instantly commands nearly 115 seats inwards the National Assembly, yet needs a handful of allies—independents too smaller parties—in club to govern. The PTI’s principal bankroller, Jahangir Tareen, has been flattering independents past times flight them inwards to Islamabad, the capital, on his somebody jet. The grubby promises to them are the form of affair Mr Khan used to decry. His wooing of the Muttahida Qaumi Movement, or MQM, the most unsavoury of Karachi’s parties, is making to a greater extent than or less PTI leaders gag. But at to the lowest degree it agency that Mr Khan does non demand radical Islamist parties to shape a governing coalition. Before the election, he pandered to zealots.
Meanwhile, over the economic scheme at that topographic point is no fourth dimension to lose. Not for the inaugural of all time, an incoming authorities faces a balance-of-payments crisis. The current-account deficit has widened too the currency is sliding. Islamic Republic of Pakistan imports three-quarters of all its liberate energy needs. Yet foreign-exchange reserves are downwards to merely $9bn—barely ii months’ import cover. An International Monetary Fund bail-out, of peradventure $12bn, looks all but inevitable. Negotiating ane volition require finesse. Islamic Republic of Pakistan is inwards hock to Communist People's Republic of China which, through a ballyhooed China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, has promised $62bn of infrastructure spending. This calendar week America’s secretarial assistant of state, Mike Pompeo, insisted that his province would block whatsoever International Monetary Fund bail-out that profited China. The business of stitching a bargain together volition autumn to Asad Umar, Mr Khan’s belike finance minister. He is a proficient choice: the quondam caput of Engro, the country’s biggest somebody conglomerate, Mr Umar is reform-minded too admired.
The damage of an International Monetary Fund bargain volition convey a populist political party downwards to earth—so much for Mr Khan’s wild promises of an “Islamic welfare state”. The side past times side challenge is the electricity sector. In office, the PML-N did much to ready Pakistan’s notorious blackouts, helped past times Communist People's Republic of China edifice novel capacity. But a tangle of debts with province generators, liberate energy suppliers too banks has been exacerbated past times theft from the grid. This tin post away move resolved past times reducing subsidies, raising liberate energy taxes too recapitalising province entities. Mr Khan has long bemoaned Pakistan’s institutional decay. Renewal starts with fixing the electricity mess.
Then come upwardly safety too unusual policy. Islamist violence marred the election too is a constant threat to Pakistan. Meanwhile, the regional province of affairs grows trickier, with rivalry betwixt America too China, too Communist People's Republic of China too India. That comes on give of rocky relations with America itself, the festering sore of war-torn Transitional Islamic State of Afghanistan to the north-west, too Pakistan’s age-old too bitter animosity towards India.
Mr Khan would seem ill-suited for these challenges. He has been to a greater extent than critical of America, specially over its purpose of drones to kill jihadists, than of the extremists themselves. And he is pally with an regular army that is the principal obstruction to ameliorate relations with India, the sworn enemy.
There is room for surprises, though. Under Nawaz Sharif, the civilian authorities too the regular army clashed. The generals distrusted, too and then thwarted, Mr Sharif’s overtures to his Indian counterpart, Narendra Modi. Relations with India, they motion into clear, are their remit. But perhaps, says Sehar Tariq of the the U.S.A. Institute of Peace, “harmony” betwixt civilian rulers too the regular army (ie, civilian subservience) could “reap dividends” over India. High-level exchanges cause got latterly taken identify betwixt the ii countries’ armed forces. Pakistan’s regular army chief, General Qamar Bajwa, is relatively doveish towards India, acknowledging that home-grown jihadism is a far greater threat to Pakistan. Pakistan, via the generals, may yet abide by the volition to seek ameliorate Indian ties.
One day, though, Mr Khan volition certainly clash with the generals. He speaks of opening the edge with Afghanistan, an stance at odds with the 2,300km-long ground the regular army wants to build. And he wants to pass heavily on wellness too education, coin which tin post away entirely move constitute past times crimping the armed forces’ budget. Farooq Tirmizi, an analyst, predicts a create produce that volition come upwardly downwards to “guns versus textbooks”.
But that is for the future. For now, Mr Khan, who has seldom attended parliamentary sessions too who has described the assembly as “the most tedious identify on earth”, must abide by a feel of dedication, particular too compromise that has evaded him till now. He must acquire to move with a political storey he has entirely slammed. And he must gently allow downwards his most enthusiastic supporters from the irresponsible highs he generated for them—for instance, past times promising to halt corruption inside ninety days. It volition require dogged strength, which he has inwards abundance, too humility—which, equally, he lacks. Over to the captain.
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