by Mike Allen
For the past times month, Axios has been interviewing people who withdraw hold been trusted amongst the nation’s most sensitive secrets. The grouping includes 7 one-time directors or deputy directors of the CIA, ii one-time U.S. intelligence chiefs, a one-time Secretary of Homeland Security, ii White House homeland safety advisers, in addition to a one-time Director of the National Counterterrorism Center.We wanted to know, inwards this fourth dimension of shrewd geopolitical stress, which global threat worried them most, in addition to which threats they thought weren’t getting the attending they deserved. The projection was led past times David Lawler, Jonathan Swan in addition to Evan Ryan.
Given your overwhelming reply to our Deep Dives, they’ll presently interruption into special editions, thence you’ll also larn a regular Sabbatum edition of Axios AM.
Let’s dive inwards …
1 large threat: Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 hurricane-force cyberattack
When nosotros asked America’s first intelligence experts what keeps them upwards at night, ane reply came upwards over in addition to over again: the adventure of a crippling cyberattack. A well-executed cyberattack could knock out the electrical grid in addition to closed off powerfulness to a huge swath of the country, or compromise vital authorities or fiscal information in addition to larn out us unsure what is real.
The sheer number of internet-connected devices, from cars to pacemakers, agency the risks are growing past times the day.
The large picture: Homeland Security Secretary Kirstjen Nielsen said this calendar week that the U.S. is inwards “crisis mode,” comparison the danger of a massive assault to a Category v hurricane looming on the horizon. Intelligence chiefs from the final 3 administrations agree, in addition to told Axios at that spot is no graver threat to the United States.
Gen. David Petraeus, one-time CIA director: “What worries me most is a cyber equivalent of a weapon of bulk devastation falling into the hands of extremists who would, needless to say, live on real hard to deter, given their willingness to blow themselves upwards on the battlefield to bring us amongst them.”
Former CIA Director Leon Panetta says the biggest threat is “a cyberattack that could paralyze the nation,” piece one-time Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff says “cyberattacks on critical infrastructure from province or state-sponsored actors are the biggest threat correct now.”
Russia, China, Islamic Republic of Iran in addition to Democratic People's South Korea are the overstep U.S. adversaries inwards the cyber realm, but the threat extends to non-state actors in addition to criminal groups.
“The steady drumbeat of breaches inwards the headlines — each to a greater extent than fantastic than the side past times side — may withdraw hold numbed people, but everyone should help most the cyber threat,” explains Lisa Monaco, homeland safety adviser to Barack Obama. “First, nosotros are all vulnerable. Second, it won’t bring a cyber 9/11 to brand this real real.”
“There volition live on tremendous media coverage in addition to assigning of blame subsequently at that spot is a catastrophic assault on U.S. critical infrastructure that results inwards the loss of American lives,” says Frances Townsend, homeland safety adviser to George W. Bush, “but nosotros demand to pass to a greater extent than fourth dimension immediately roofing what is at stake in addition to the magnitude of the growing risk.”
“Companies inwards the energy, financial, in addition to other cardinal economical sectors demand to develop the capacity to portion threat information inwards existent time, in addition to give the authorities the visibility in addition to information to bring activity when necessary to defend us,” says Matt Olsen, one-time manager of the National Counterterrorism Center.
The bottom line: The fact that thence many intelligenceexperts withdraw hold reached the same conclusion — in addition to experience thence strongly most it — shows how much the dangers to the US withdraw hold changed since 9/11.
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2. United States, divided: The threat at home
Illustration: Rebecca Zisser/Axios
“We are, to lay it simply, the most destabilizing strength inwards the world today,” one-time CIA manager Michael Hayden says, describing the “erratic in addition to unpredictable policy of the United States” equally the greatest adventure to global security.
Between the lines: Hayden isn’t alone. Several intelligence experts cited threats coming from inside the US equally amidst the most unsafe nosotros face.
Michael Morell, one-time acting CIA director:”What has worried me for some time, fifty-fifty earlier the 2016 election, is the inability of our political leadership to resolve their differences in addition to to come upwards together in addition to compromise inwards making decisions that advance our economic scheme in addition to society. Why is this my biggest worry? Because, at the halt of the day, the most of import determinant of a nation’s national safety is the wellness of its economic scheme in addition to its society. Period. End of story.”
Avril Haines, one-time deputy CIA director, points to inequality inwards the U.S. equally a long-term national safety threat, in addition to ane that volition live on accelerated past times emerging technologies:”As the bulk of the population inwards countries similar the US run across that their children are unlikely to live on improve off than they were, at that spot is a sense of frustration — exacerbated past times the fact that the economic scheme appears to live on doing well, even thence the benefits of that growth are going to the super rich. Meanwhile, authoritarian governments similar PRC seem to live on making pregnant reforms that effect inwards greater access to resources for their citizens. This creates, amidst other things, a perception that democracies are unable to deliver for their citizens.”
Go deeper: The threat from America.
3. Pakistan: The threat of a nuclear-armed terrorist state
Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios
“Pakistan is the most unsafe province inwards the world — non this year, non side past times side year, but sure enough downwardly the road,” says Michael Morell, one-time acting CIA director.
Pakistan has the world’s fifth largest population, fifth largest state of war machine in addition to sixth largest nuclear arsenal. The danger begins, Morell says, amongst a dysfunctional economic scheme in addition to a quickly growing population of immature people without didactics or task prospects. Add to that a state of war machine that continues to telephone telephone the shots equally though state of war could interruption out at whatever moment.
“The main argue the state of war machine has a travelling steal on decision-making is because of a long-held in addition to immediately false belief inwards Islamic Republic of Pakistan that Republic of Republic of India is an existential threat to Islamic Republic of Pakistan in addition to that Islamabad must exercise everything it tin privy to protect itself from that threat,” he says.
“One of the areas inwards which this plays out is inwards Pakistan’s back upwards to jihadists — inwards short, its back upwards to terrorists fighting India. That back upwards bleeds over to extremists who wish to overthrow the Pakistani province itself, including al-Qaeda in addition to the Pakistani Taliban.”
The bottom line: “This anti-state jihadist extremism is growing inwards Pakistan, creating the nightmare social club downwardly the route — an extremist authorities inwards Islamabad amongst nuclear weapons.”
Bonus: How Islamic Republic of Pakistan became a global threat
Watch this Axios video, made peculiarly for this global threats Deep Dive, for a expect at how Islamic Republic of Pakistan became “the most unsafe province inwards the world,” in addition to where it powerfulness live on heading.
4. China: Greatest rival, growing threat
Illustration: Rebecca Zisser/Axios
Several countries withdraw hold the state of war machine in addition to cyber tools to terms America. Some may fifty-fifty withdraw hold the volition to utilization them. But equally one-time acting CIA manager John McLaughlin puts it, “China is the ane province that is clearly challenging the US for global supremacy.”
“Its challenge ranges across a broad land of powerfulness dynamics — from cyber to economics, to scientific discipline in addition to the military,” he says. “It is fielding in addition to implementing large transformational programs such at the ‘One Belt, One Road’ initiatory that in ane trial evolved from U.S. leadership … creating the fearfulness that fifty-fifty closed U.S. friends — all of whom withdraw hold deep merchandise relationships amongst Beijing — volition live on pulled irresistibly into China’s orbit.”
It’s non exactly a contest for merchandise in addition to influence. PRC is developing state of war machine capabilities “that are specifically designed to deter in addition to defeat the US inwards a really global competition, in addition to it’s pursuing victory on all fronts,” says Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.), who has been floated equally a hereafter CIA director.
“China is deploying anti-ship missiles on man-made islands inwards the South PRC Sea, meddling inwards U.S. negotiations amongst North Korea, propping upwards the Iranian regime, in addition to taking an e'er to a greater extent than menacing opinion against Taiwan non because it’s encircled, but because it’s emboldened, in addition to nosotros should bring notice,” he says.
The bottom line: “China is the most formidable competitor nosotros withdraw hold faced inwards our history,” Morell says, “And we, the U.S., withdraw hold non figured out a strategic approach to dealing amongst it.”
Go deeper: Axios Deep Dive on China’s ambitions.
5. Climate change: Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 rising threat
Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios
James Clapper, manager of national intelligence nether President Obama, cites “the hit of issues that arise from climate change” equally a national safety threat non receiving sufficient attention:
“Half of the world’s population volition facial expression upwards H2O shortages past times 2035, according to the U.N. More than xxx countries — one-half of which are inwards the Mideast — volition experience extreme H2O stress past times 2035.”
“More than a 3rd of the earth’s soil, which produces 95% of the world’s nutrient supply, is already degraded, in addition to that degradation volition accelerate over the side past times side xx years, equally the world’s population increases. Soil degradation is already occurring at rates equally much equally xl times faster than novel soil formation.”
“Sea storey rises are accelerating, because of H2O ice melt inwards the polar regions. At the electrical flow rate, the world’s seas volition live on at to the lowest degree ii feet higher past times the halt of the century. This has profound implications for the increasing tendency toward population concentrations inwards megalopolises, which are concentrated inwards coastal regions.”
The bottom line: “Climate modify (like it or not, withdraw hold it or not) is going to withdraw hold huge implications for global security. And nosotros don’t focus plenty on it.”
Go deeper: Axios’ Deep Dive on climate change.
6. Pandemics: Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 fast-spreading threat
Illustration: Rebecca Zisser/Axios
Not all safety threats are born from bad intentions. U.S. in addition to global leaders aren’t paying nearly plenty attending to the threat from infectious disease, contends Lisa Monaco, homeland safety adviser to President Obama:
“As Homeland Security in addition to Counterterrorism Advisor, I worried most bad actors doing something awful amongst a bomb, a slice of malware or a pathogen. But inwards the example of pandemics, the to a greater extent than probable scenario is non a bad guy amongst a bug, but a naturally occurring infectious affliction similar nosotros saw amongst Ebola inwards 2014, or worse yet, a novel strain of flu.”
“Amazingly, inwards 2018 — the 100th anniversary of the Castilian influenza that wiped out 50-100 meg people worldwide — the World Economic Forum left this threat off its listing of overstep v global risks in addition to our ain intelligence community left it off its latest Worldwide Threat Assessment.”
“Even though it’s cheaper in addition to easier to incorporate affliction at its beginning rather than waiting for it to hop a ride on ane of the millions of worldwide airline flights, the post-Ebola investments made to live on sure nosotros weren’t caught flat-footed for the side past times side populace wellness crisis withdraw hold been slashed.”
Why it matters: “With rising populations, growing mega-cities, in addition to rapid global move that saw to a greater extent than than 1 billion international tourist arrivals inwards 2015 lone — a novel strain of deadly influenza volition brand 1918 expect similar a walk inwards the park.”
7. Russia: An old threat, made new
Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios
James Clapper, manager of national intelligence nether President Obama, says Russian Federation is “the most pressing near-term threat to the U.S., for ii reasons: its aggressive information operations stimulate to undermine our basic system, in addition to the modernization of its strategic nuclear arsenal.”
Clapper told Axios inwards a recent interview that Russian Federation is “bent on undermining our scheme whatever way they can,” in addition to volition live on equally long equally Vladimir Putin remains inwards power.
Sen. Tom Cotton cites Russia’s “flagrant violations of its treaty commitments,” including on nuclear weapons, equally an number that has flown nether the radar despite “months of coverage of Russia’s meddling inwards the 2016 election.”
Michael Dempsey, the acting manager of national intelligence inwards the kickoff months of 2017, says Russia’s election meddling in addition to illegal annexation of Crimea signal to a deeper threat:
“The erosion of existing international norms, in addition to the international community’s inability to found novel norms inwards such areas equally cyber warfare, artificial intelligence, synthetic biological scientific discipline in addition to autonomous weapons development.”
“My main line of piece of occupation organisation is that inwards the absence of agreed-upon norms inwards each of these areas, in addition to without a vibrant Western alliance to rely on, the world could stumble into a crisis that it doesn’t sympathize in addition to is incapable of managing.”
8. Terrorism: An urgent, shifting threat
Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios
The adventure of “the side past times side 9/11” has been sufficiently reduced, but since 2001 it has larn cheaper, faster in addition to easier to send out the types of attacks that snuff it along to plague cities some the world.
David Cohen, one-time deputy CIA director, says the focus of terrorist groups is immediately “inspiring in addition to radicalizing local actors to send smaller-scale attacks in addition to providing them amongst web-based preparation in addition to techniques to exercise so.”
Three concerns: Radicalized ISIS fighters returning home, the recruitment value of “the perception that America is immediately at state of war amongst Islam,” in addition to “the ascent of unregulated cryptocurrencies” that larn inwards harder to block funding to terrorist groups.
“A sustained endeavor to weaken these organizations’ powerfulness to computer programme in addition to send attacks against the ‘far enemy’ has largely succeeded,” Cohen says, but the wish to send out a “spectacular, large-scale attack” remains.
9. North Korea: Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 threat inwards hibernation
Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios
One twelvemonth subsequently President Trump’s threats of “fire in addition to fury,” none of the experts nosotros consulted cited Democratic People's South Korea equally the overstep threat to national security. But piece the imminent prospect of a missile telephone substitution has subsided, things may non remain serenity for long.
Bruce Klingner, the CIA’s one-time deputy segmentation principal for Korea, says the best estimates are that Democratic People's South Korea has xxx or to a greater extent than nuclear weapons in addition to hundreds of missiles, summation biological in addition to chemic weapons.
North Korea was “a handful of months away” from beingness able to strike the U.S. amongst a nuclear weapon, according to an assessment from then-CIA Director Mike Pompeo. That was inwards January.
Klingner sees ii paths dorsum to burn downwardly in addition to fury, in addition to the fearfulness of war: 1. Democratic People's South Korea could exam a missile, or abandon negotiations. 2. Trump could react angrily if months snuff it past times amongst piffling progress, feeling he’s been “betrayed” past times Kim Jong-un.
The bottom line: “The capabilities withdraw hold non changed, in addition to nosotros don’t know if the intentions have,” Klingner says.
10. Artificial intelligence: The threat of the future
Illustration: Rebecca Zisser/Axios
Multiple experts cited artificial intelligence equally a strength multiplier amplifying existing threats. Axios Future Editor Steve LeVine explains how AI creates a danger all its own:
For the U.S. in addition to China, AI is the equivalent of the Cold War arms race. The safety in addition to political apparatus inwards both countries persuasion dominating the AI hereafter equally both an economical in addition to state of war machine imperative.
The argue is the nature of AI — a general-purpose applied scientific discipline that volition spawn today-unknown industries in addition to weapons classes.
Once a province possesses a machine amongst human intelligence, it could withdraw hold the capability to maintain all rivals at bay inwards perpetuity.
But only PRC has made this a national strategic destination in addition to lay enormous sums behind getting there. The U.S. has even thence to bring this step, instead relying on soul industry, inwards detail Silicon Valley giants similar Google in addition to Microsoft, to send the country’s interests.
Go deeper: Axios’ Deep Dive on the robot revolution.
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