Robert Cassidy
“The failure to solve the riddle of ISI in addition to to halt its covert interference inwards Transitional Islamic State of Afghanistan became, ultimately, the greatest strategic failure of the American war.” – Steve Coll, Directorate S At the goal of June, the US Senate confirmed the nomination of the 9th American commander inwards Transitional Islamic State of Afghanistan in addition to the 17th commander of that state of war overall. The U.S.-led coalition has been fighting in that location for xvi years in addition to 10 months. Senior commanders in addition to political leaders take away keep acknowledged the state of war is a stalemate. Years of Department of Defense reporting in addition to senior leader hearings evidence to the difficulties amongst the state of war in addition to the reasons for the stalemate. Many opened upwards origin articles in addition to books explicate why, what at start looked like, a successful war, amongst the Taliban taking flight, hence saw the regeneration of the Taliban in addition to the attack of a protracted state of war of attrition amongst increasingly grisly bombings in addition to violence twelvemonth afterward year. Civilians take away keep been victims of much of the violence. Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 strategic stalemate afterward almost 17 years of state of war is disconcerting.
What was a fleck perplexing almost the nomination hearing for the adjacent commander amid a long employment of commanders inwards Transitional Islamic State of Afghanistan was the dearth of detail. During the hearing on xix June, the senators posed a few tough questions almost the gravest obstacles to success inwards Transitional Islamic State of Afghanistan in addition to did non exact noun answers. The most recent unclassified biannual Defense Department study on progress inwards Afghanistan, released inwards early on July before long afterward the nomination hearing, included to a greater extent than special than the answers that the senators demanded of the novel commander. The recent study makes clear that Pakistan’s most lethal in addition to reliable Islamist terrorist proxy, the Haqqani network, “continues to live an integral business office of the Taliban’s effort” to pose an existential threat to Afghanistan, in addition to that the portion has the “largest concentration” of terrorist organizations inwards the world.
Most importantly, the June DoD study notes that the Taliban in addition to the Haqqani network retain liberty of displace inwards Islamic Republic of Pakistan in addition to that Transitional Islamic State of Afghanistan faces a continuing threat from an externally supported insurgency. Islamic Republic of Pakistan is the principal origin of external support. This is non a recent epiphany. Issued past times DoD since 2009, these reports take away keep regularly stated that the sanctuary inwards Islamic Republic of Pakistan in addition to the textile back upwards emanating from Islamic Republic of Pakistan sustain the Taliban insurgents in addition to forbid their defeat. The study from final Dec nation that “the externally supported Haqqani Network remains the greatest threat to Afghan, U.S., in addition to coalition forces.” The June study omits this fact, but it does stipulate that compelling Islamic Republic of Pakistan to curb its back upwards for “proxy terrorist in addition to militant groups” is a focus of the regional dimension of the electrical flow strategy.
Pakistan, a nominally major non-NATO ally of the U.S., is the unmarried biggest incubator in addition to exporter of Islamist militant groups that kill in addition to maim Afghan, American, in addition to coalition soldiers in addition to civilians inwards Afghanistan. Pakistan’s Inter-Service Intelligence (ISI) Directorate provides back upwards in addition to sanctuary to the Taliban. This prolongs the stalemate in addition to prevents the Taliban’s defeat. The U.S.-led coalition in addition to its Afghan partners volition non goal the war, or volition non goal the state of war successfully unless they tin dismiss goal the sanctuary past times stopping Pakistan’s inimical strategic behavior. Pakistan, inwards reality, behaves equally an enemy inwards its strategic calculus. By pretending to live an ally it deludes in addition to dissembles amongst risible impunity. Even though these facts take away keep been unclassified inwards years of reports in addition to testimonies, the Senate Armed Services Committee did non delve into this grave employment during the nomination hearing. Excerpts of the few tough questions in addition to the responses provided at the nomination hearing appear below, along amongst to a greater extent than special given past times the writer from a diversity of opened upwards origin publications:
SENATOR REED: Can you lot laissez passer us a sense at ane time from your slap-up sense inwards the portion equally to where nosotros are amongst regard to Islamic Republic of Pakistan in addition to how effective they volition live inwards assisting our efforts?
GENERAL MILLER: Senator, equally I facial expression at Transitional Islamic State of Afghanistan – in addition to I’ve looked at it for quite a number of years – it is evidently a really tough neighborhood amongst to a greater extent than or less tough neighbors. As I facial expression at Pakistan, Islamic Republic of Pakistan must live business office of the solution, in addition to nosotros should take away keep high expectations that they are business office of the solution, non only diplomatically but from a safety standpoint equally well.
MORE DETAIL: Islamic Republic of Pakistan behaves similar an enemy but pretends to live an ally. Pakistan’s safety establishment has consistently in addition to shamelessly lied to a host of senior American interlocutors. Islamic Republic of Pakistan has been really effective at assisting America’s enemies amongst sanctuary, support, in addition to advice, to prolong the stalemate.
SENATOR PERDUE: But correct now, amongst the Haqqani network existence protected within Pakistan, do you lot run into whatever relief for this cross-border rubber haven that the Taliban at ane time proceed to enjoy?
GENERAL MILLER: Senator, that would live something I’d take away keep to become facial expression at, if confirmed. I become dorsum to what I intend our larger expectations of Islamic Republic of Pakistan ought to live is that nosotros ought to take away keep high expectations of them to address the issues you’re speaking almost there.
MORE DETAIL: No. There has been no pregnant relief from the sanctuary inwards Islamic Republic of Pakistan because Islamic Republic of Pakistan has non relented inwards its sponsorship of the Haqqani network in addition to the Taliban. Unless the US gets clear-eyed in addition to really tough on Islamic Republic of Pakistan amongst all the instruments of national power, these groups volition proceed to do goodness from sanctuary in addition to back upwards in addition to this state of war volition non end, or it volition goal badly.
SENATOR SULLIVAN: Can nosotros always secure our national interests, either from the train, suggest in addition to assist, or C.T. perspective if in that location is a rubber haven inwards Pakistan?
GENERAL MILLER: Senator, a rubber haven makes this infinitely to a greater extent than difficult.
SENATOR SULLIVAN: So, is that a – is that a no?
GENERAL MILLER: We take away keep to mash out rubber havens if we’re going to live successful here.
MORE DETAIL: No. It is non possible for the US in addition to its partners to secure their interests in addition to attain their aims of a stable Transitional Islamic State of Afghanistan inhospitable to Islamist terrorists field Islamic Republic of Pakistan continues to render sanctuary in addition to back upwards to the Haqqanis, the Taliban, in addition to a host of other Islamist militants.
However, the electrical flow strategy for Transitional Islamic State of Afghanistan does seek to suspension the stalemate. In theory, the stated strategy for Transitional Islamic State of Afghanistan is to increment the size of the Afghan Special Security Forces in addition to Air Force; and, to ameliorate the conventional forces past times placing to a greater extent than advisers at lower tactical levels. The thought is that this sweat volition cook momentum inwards the struggle against the Taliban at the operational grade field regional diplomacy in addition to other levers at the strategic volition compel Pakistan’s safety establishment to cut the sanctuary in addition to back upwards it provides to sustain the Taliban. The DoD study from final Dec declared that for the strategy inwards Transitional Islamic State of Afghanistan to gain momentum, the US must essentially run into Islamic Republic of Pakistan contrary its long-standing venal policy of providing terrorist sanctuary within its borders. That same study avowed to concur accountable those states that back upwards Islamist militants who undermine stability inwards Afghanistan. Islamic Republic of Pakistan has non stopped its back upwards of terrorists in addition to insurgents inwards Transitional Islamic State of Afghanistan inwards whatever marked or essential ways. It is fourth dimension to respond amongst punitive measures aimed at institutions in addition to individuals inwards Islamic Republic of Pakistan that straight advise, fund, or sustain the Taliban in addition to the Haqqani network.
The US in addition to its allies take away keep been fighting terrorists in addition to insurgents for almost 17 years. The coalition forces tin dismiss win engagements, launch strikes, in addition to kill terrorists twelvemonth afterward twelvemonth but inwards the absence of a feasible strategy, the number of Islamist militants across the globe has increased since eleven September 2001. Transitional Islamic State of Afghanistan remains a stalemate. The US in addition to its partners take away keep non however matched the theory in addition to exercise of policy in addition to strategy to successfully goal the state of war inwards Afghanistan. The headquarters that oversees the region, US Central Command, is at ane time inwards the procedure of conducting an assessment to decide how good the Southern Asia strategy is achieving policy. Two areas require impartial scrutiny, in addition to that require to avoid the Pollyannaish tendencies witnessed inwards many previous assessments from state of war zones. The start is to take away keep a hard facial expression for genuine increases inwards the capability of the Afghan forces to sustain operations field overmatching their enemies. The other is to conduct a clear-eyed evaluation of whatever primal changes inwards the Pakistani safety establishment’s back upwards in addition to operate of Islamist proxies that threaten Afghanistan.
The US in addition to its partners require to larn blunt almost Pakistan’s sustainment of the Taliban. Mincing words inwards official hearings when discussing the Taliban’s sources of back upwards was most probable an endeavor to live political on the record, but a nearly 17-year stalemated state of war requires to a greater extent than trenchant world discourse. Islamic Republic of Pakistan sustains the Taliban, in addition to the sanctuary conduces the stalemate. The novel commander inwards Transitional Islamic State of Afghanistan is ane of the most capable in addition to seasoned combat leaders of his generation. However, the strategic contradictions that he inherits inwards Transitional Islamic State of Afghanistan in addition to Islamic Republic of Pakistan take away keep outlasted several really capable generals. Until America’s senior leaders exhibit the ruthlessness to publicly avow the dire strategic impediments that Pakistan’s duplicity causes, in addition to summon the volition to convey almost the goal of sanctuaries, Afghanistan’s state of war volition non end.
Robert Cassidy, Ph.D., a retired US Army colonel, is a Chamberlain Project didactics swain at Wesleyan University in addition to a senior swain at the Center for Advanced Defense Studies. His published piece of work focuses on Transitional Islamic State of Afghanistan in addition to irregular war. He has served inwards Transitional Islamic State of Afghanistan in addition to Iraq. This article does non reverberate the views of the institutions amongst which the writer is associated.
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