By Samuel Ramani
On July 16, 2018, the Russian President’s particular envoy to Afghanistan, Zamir Kabulov, announced that the Russian authorities would invite Taliban representatives to a Moscow-format coming together on Transitional Islamic State of Afghanistan earlier the terminate of the summer. Kabulov justified Moscow’s determination to grip talks with the Taliban yesteryear stating that the Taliban controls “more than one-half of Afghanistan’s territory,” and, therefore, must survive included inwards an eventual Afghan peace settlement. Although the Moscow format’s exclusion of the US limits its powerfulness to exert influence over the trajectory of the Transitional Islamic State of Afghanistan conflict, the upcoming talks advance Russia’s interests inwards Transitional Islamic State of Afghanistan inwards 3 critical ways. First, Russian Federation volition utilisation the talks to demonstrate its potential to human activity equally an effective mediator betwixt the Taliban in addition to Afghan President Ashraf Ghani’s government. Showcasing the constructive nature of Russia’s involvement inwards Transitional Islamic State of Afghanistan is of vital importance for Russian policymakers, equally Russian Federation has been defendant of arming the Taliban yesteryear the US in addition to Afghan officials. On June 20, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Alice Wells condemned Russia’s strategy of arming the Taliban against ISIS, in addition to urged Russian Federation to back upward peace talks that strengthened the seat of Afghanistan’s legitimate government. Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova replied yesteryear vigorously denying Wells’ allegations. In spite of Zakharova’s denials, a disceptation from Washington’s principal armed forces commander inwards Afghanistan, Lieutenant General Scott Miller, stated on Afghanistan’s largest media network, Khaama News Agency, that Russian Federation supported Taliban fighters, with Islamic Republic of Pakistan in addition to Iran.
The moving ridge of U.S. allegations of Russian collusion with the Taliban has increased anti-Russian sentiments inwards Afghanistan. On June 27, the Afghan Defense Ministry rebuked Russia for claiming that ISIS had established a pregnant presence inwards nine provinces of Afghanistan, in addition to insisted that solely 2,000 ISIS fighters remained inwards Afghanistan. On July 6, Afghan peace activists staged a protestation exterior of the Russian diplomatic mission inwards Kabul, in addition to urged Moscow to refrain from farther interference inwards the Transitional Islamic State of Afghanistan conflict.
In club to combat these anti-Russian sentiments in addition to ensure Russian Federation remains a trusted arbiter inwards Afghanistan, Moscow has recalibrated its human relationship with the Taliban. On July 17, Russian Federation in addition to Tajikistan staged an anti-Taliban armed forces drill aimed at strengthening the Tajik military’s resistance capacity inwards the lawsuit of a Taliban railroad train on inwards the Tajikistan-Afghanistan edge region.
This drill aimed to assuage concerns inwards Kabul that Russian Federation is an ally of the Taliban in addition to to demonstrate that Moscow is solely engaging with the Taliban to restore political stability to Afghanistan. If Moscow tin highlight its commitment to political stability inwards Transitional Islamic State of Afghanistan through peace talks, Russian policymakers volition survive able to contrary the tendency of growing hostility towards Russian Federation inside the Afghan political institution in addition to retain influence over the conflict’s endgame.
Second, Russian Federation is using the Moscow format peace talks to increment the credibility of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO)’s efforts to facilitate a political village inwards Afghanistan. During final month’s SCO summit inwards Qingdao, Chinese President Xi Jinping outlined his strategy to increment the purpose of the SCO-Afghanistan Contact Group inwards bringing most a peaceful solution to the Transitional Islamic State of Afghanistan conflict. As Afghanistan’s Chief Executive Abdullah Abdullah in addition to Ghani, who attended the SCO summit, select both urged the SCO to consolidate its counterterrorism efforts inwards Transitional Islamic State of Afghanistan nether ane banner, Xi’s disceptation was positively received inwards Kabul.
Xi’s wishing to expand the SCO’s presence inwards Transitional Islamic State of Afghanistan was welcomed inwards Moscow, equally it aligns closely with Russian policy preferences. In recent months, the Russian authorities has diplomatically engaged with in addition to given media attending to Afghan politicians sympathetic to SCO involvement inwards Afghanistan, similar Afghan lawmaker Jafar Mahdawi. Russian Federation was too an active player inwards a recent gathering of intelligence chiefs from China, Russia, Islamic Republic of Pakistan in addition to Islamic Republic of Iran that discussed strategies for combating ISIS.
In add-on to demonstrating its commitment to the SCO, Russian Federation wants to challenge the supposition that it is simply a second-tier powerfulness inwards the SCO that follows China’s lead. By hosting major peace talks on Afghanistan, Russian officials volition survive able to demonstrate that Moscow is the preeminent crisis negotiator inside the SCO in addition to that Russian Federation is a major contributor to the rising prominence of the collective safety organization.
Third, the Russian authorities is using the Moscow-format talks to acquaint Russian Federation equally a potentially vital twain betwixt the Taliban in addition to the United States, equally Washington seeks to terminate its 17-year armed forces drive inwards Afghanistan. Kabulov lately claimed that the Taliban is interested inwards belongings at ane time dialogue with the United States. As U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo expressed support for renewed peace talks betwixt Ghani’s authorities in addition to the Taliban during his recent catch to Kabul, Moscow believes that Washington volition eventually ask to re-establish lines of communication with the Taliban.
The precedent of Russia’s successful outreach to the US during the September 2013 chemic weapons disarmament bargain inwards Syrian Arab Republic provides a useful benchmark for how Washington could notice itself reliant on Russian mediation assistance, fifty-fifty during a menstruum of heightened Moscow-Washington tensions. Much similar Russian Federation acted equally the diplomatic twain betwixt Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime in addition to the US over destroying Damascus’ chemic weapons arsenal, Russian policymakers believe that the US mightiness survive forced to communicate with Russian Federation over engaging the Taliban inwards peace talks.
In club for this scenario to play out, Russian Federation must successfully entice moderate Taliban members to attend its upcoming Moscow-format talks. This success would house Russian Federation inwards a seat inwards which it tin human activity equally a diplomatic conduit betwixt the United States, the Afghan authorities in addition to the Taliban on an Afghan peace settlement.
Although Russian Federation continues to aspect upward criticisms from the US in addition to Afghan authorities officials over its hugger-mugger links with the Taliban, the upcoming Moscow-format talks furnish an chance for Russian Federation to demonstrate that its Taliban links are constructive inwards nature. If the Moscow-format talks resultant inwards Taliban participation, Russia’s slap-up powerfulness condition volition survive highlighted to the international community, in addition to Putin’s flagging populace icon inside Russian Federation could have a critical boost inwards the months to come.
Samuel Ramani is a DPhil candidate inwards International Relations at St. Antony’s College, University of Oxford. He is too a contributor to The Washington Post in addition to The National Interest. He tin survive followed on Twitter at samramani2 in addition to on Facebook at Samuel Ramani.
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