Is the reliability of our nation’s electrical might grid threatened yesteryear the market-driven retirement of nuclear might facilities? Despite the wealth of evidence to the contrary, the answer according to a novel written report yesteryear the Nuclear Energy Institute, is “yes.” NEI’s paper, “The Impact of Fuel Supply Security on Grid Resilience,” claims that ane of the most meaning risks to grid resiliency is an over-reliance on inexpensive natural gas every bit a fuel source, specifically inwards the Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland (PJM) Mid-Atlantic area. Really?
NEI represents the nuclear manufacture as well as the utilities that depend on nuclear generation, as well as so it’s no surprise that the association would release a written report supportive of the controversial United States of America Department of Energy proposal to prop upward nuclear plants, every bit good every bit coal facilities, yesteryear requiring the marketplace to compensate them for their stability. But it’s a error to knock natural gas for the marketplace challenges facing nuclear as well as coal.
Utilities are increasingly turning to natural gas to generate electricity because of America’s vast supplies, depression prices as well as lower emissions. Natural gas is at ane time the largest root of of electricity generation, representing one-third of United States of America generation. Interfering amongst the costless marketplace yesteryear subsidizing ane release energy root over some other won’t trim down the cost of nuclear might or better the environmental functioning of coal.
The previous administration’s state of war on coal is turning, nether the novel administration, into a state of war on natural gas – both policies are anticompetitive as well as anti-energy dominance. The electrical current province of affairs is also confounding, given the repeated proclamations of back upward yesteryear Trump officials for United States of America natural gas producers at this yesteryear week’s World Gas Conference inwards Washington, D.C.
The mixed messaging is a clear sign President Trump is serious inwards his enthusiasm for an “all of the above” release energy policy as well as that he’s seeking an halt to yesteryear biases against nuclear as well as fossil fuels. So far, as well as so good. The work is that he’s fallen into the same trap every bit previous administrations of trying to rebalance the marketplace through federal favor. Subsidies as well as exceptional carveouts are non the agency to ensure Americans receive got access to affordable, abundant as well as secure energy. The direction should instead focus its back upward on excogitation as well as hold out of the agency of American ingenuity. Technological advances inwards how nosotros make as well as utilization coal as well as nuclear release energy – whether its carbon capture or quaternary generation reactors – volition make to a greater extent than to assist those industries last than pitting them against natural gas.
A few years agone it was coal vs natural gas. Today, every bit the NEI written report shows, a novel front end is opening betwixt nuclear as well as natural gas. NEI looked at a number of potential worse-case scenario “infrastructure events” – from terrorist ready on to extreme weather condition – that could disrupt ane or to a greater extent than of the nation’s 3 regional electrical grids as well as concluded that nearly eighteen gigawatts of natural gas generation inwards the PJM portion is at risk.
The merchandise association bases its declaration on a serial of improbable assumptions. To start, the NEI written report is based on the projection that 19.4 gigawatts – 65 pct of PJM’s nuclear capacity – volition retire yesteryear 2023, an unlikely scenario given that xiv gigawatts of capacity are at ane time protected yesteryear province laws. Independent analysis suggests that nuclear flora owners volition retire alone almost vi gigawatts over the side yesteryear side v years, less than one-third of the full assumed yesteryear NEI.
The authors of the newspaper offering a serial of hypothetical situations that could threaten the might organisation without considering the historical tape of how good the grid has withstood similar stress tests inwards the past. As the authors’ themselves acknowledge: “the orbit of this study did non include a detailed review as well as categorization of historical disruption events.” They also gave each “disruptive event” – cyber-attack, hurricane, earthquake, planned construction or corroded pipeline – the same odds of impacting the grid despite the fact that piece bad weather condition oftentimes brings downwards might lines, it rarely damages generating facilities or pipelines. What are the chances of a 6.0 magnitude earthquake hitting Pennsylvania as well as destroying natural gas generators without also affecting nuclear facilities?
In the 53-page explanation of PJM’s vulnerability, NEI presents alone 2 examples of yesteryear disruptions that resulted inwards a breach of a mainline natural gas system, impacting roughly 1 gigawatt of supply. In each case, the long-term disruption was minimal as well as natural gas generators were dorsum online inwards brusque order.
Coal as well as nuclear operators scrap that their might to stockpile fuel reduces their exposure to furnish disruptions. But the NEI written report fails to consider that the vast bulk of the hypothetical events mentioned would also harm transmission infrastructure – the root of most might outages. Fuel furnish problems accounted for 0.00007 pct of blackout hours betwixt 2012 as well as 2016. By comparison, downed might lines were responsible for to a greater extent than than xc pct of outages. In other words, onsite fuel supplies are rarely a critical issue, a indicate NEI’s written report acknowledges when it states that “nuclear generation facilities are dependent plain to the same downstream transmission risks.”
Experience has shown fourth dimension as well as ane time to a greater extent than that the functioning of natural gas might plants as well as pipelines are non a jeopardy to the reliability of the electrical grid. PJM Interconnection, which owns the transmission organisation that supplies 65 1000000 customers inwards xiii states inwards the Midwest as well as Mid-Atlantic, released a written report examining the grid’s functioning during extreme mutual frigidity snaps as well as flora the organisation functioned good during periods of summit demand. In a kind report, PJM said the Mid-Atlantic might organisation “is to a greater extent than reliable as well as cleaner than ever.”
The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) flora that natural gas suppliers fulfilled nearly 100 pct of their theatre delivery contracts over the yesteryear decade thank you lot to the interconnectedness of the United States of America pipeline organisation as well as the presence of shale formations across the country. H5N1 kind PJM written report also flora that natural gas plants performed higher upward expectations during recent bad weather. Investment inwards on-site gas storage facilities could trim down the risks of delivery interruptions fifty-fifty further.
NEI’s report, based every bit it is on hypothetical projections that ignore real-world experience, adds piffling to the electrical current debate. That debate is ane time once to a greater extent than inwards the headlines amongst the abrupt difference of FERC commissioner Robert Powelson, who previously criticized the administration’s resiliency proposal every bit a nuclear as well as coal bailout that would “blow upward the markets.” Powelson’s resignation highlights the electrical current as well as unfortunate riff inwards the release energy sector.
Protecting the reliability of our nation’s might organisation is a overstep priority, ane that should non live sacrificed for politics or at the expense of our growing release energy potency as well as improved environmental functioning thank you lot to natural gas.
Instead of picking winners as well as losers, the Trump direction should focus on release energy diversity. Instead of “all of the above,” nosotros involve “more of everything.” More pipelines, to a greater extent than robust might transmission lines, to a greater extent than regulatory reform that allows advanced nuclear technologies into the marketplace as well as to a greater extent than question as well as testing of technologies that better the environmental functioning of coal. More release energy choices, non fewer. That’s the agency to ensure America’s release energy potency as well as America’s competitiveness continues to grow.
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